How many licks to get to the center of a champed 5* Thor...
helix72
Posts: 670 Critical Contributor
***stats updated for 10,000 pulls***
I'm a fully entrenched 4* player, thinking about my MPQ future, and I started wondering...what would it take for me to get a champed 5* Thor? Aside from perhaps Okoye (or maybe Thanos?) he seems the most important for the transition. So I started crunching the numbers and running the simulations.
For those of you with short attention spans, the answer (if I was starting from scratch) is around 1,236 Classic pulls or 24,720 CP to have a 50/50 chance of fully covering him (math below). Of course, I could always get lucky. But this is one of my biggest challenges with this game (which I do overall enjoy immensely): I'm going to be a 4* player for a very, very, very long time, or at least until they release a new meta-defining 5* at a time when I have enough tokens and CP to fully cover them pulling from the latest vault.
I guess this is why I see so many complaints about dilution?
Read on if you're a stat geek. Otherwise feel free to post a comment!
Assumptions:
1) The only way I will get Thor covers is by pulling Classic Tokens. For simplicity I am ignoring other ways to get covers (e.g. special stores with increased odds, Valkyrie champ rewards, heroes for hire, etc.)
2) I have Thor set as my only 5* bonus hero
3) I am ignoring bank conversions (i.e. my Thor is at 2/5/5 with 3 saved covers and I convert my 3 saved to the 1 color I need)
4) I am ignoring that as other 5* characters get released into the classic vault, the chances of pulling a random Thor get worse and worse
The odds:
There's a 1/7 chance of pulling a random 5*
Thor is 1/27 (once Loki rotates in) 5* characters in Classics
There's a 1/20 chance of pulling a bonus hero
Putting it together:
There's a 1/7 * 1/27 * 1/20 = 0.0265% chance of pulling a Thor and getting a bonus Thor (2 covers in 1 pull--jackpot!)
There's a 1/7 * 1/27 * 19/20 = 0.5026% chance of pulling a Thor and not getting a bonus
There's a 1/7 * 26/27 * 1/20 = 0.6878% chance of pulling a different 5* but getting a bonus Thor
And the remaining 98.7831% of the time, I'm a Thor loser.
The results:
I ran 10,000 simulations, and on average it took 1,236 pulls to fully cover a Thor, assuming I was starting from scratch.
The best result in that data set was 271 pulls.
The worst result was 3,930
Thankfully, I'm not starting from scratch, as my Thor is already at 2/0/0. So I ran those 10,000 simulations again, with my actual starting point. This time it only took on average 1,102 pulls to fully cover my Thor.
The best result was 229 pulls.
The worst result was 3,659
I'm a fully entrenched 4* player, thinking about my MPQ future, and I started wondering...what would it take for me to get a champed 5* Thor? Aside from perhaps Okoye (or maybe Thanos?) he seems the most important for the transition. So I started crunching the numbers and running the simulations.
For those of you with short attention spans, the answer (if I was starting from scratch) is around 1,236 Classic pulls or 24,720 CP to have a 50/50 chance of fully covering him (math below). Of course, I could always get lucky. But this is one of my biggest challenges with this game (which I do overall enjoy immensely): I'm going to be a 4* player for a very, very, very long time, or at least until they release a new meta-defining 5* at a time when I have enough tokens and CP to fully cover them pulling from the latest vault.
I guess this is why I see so many complaints about dilution?
Read on if you're a stat geek. Otherwise feel free to post a comment!
Assumptions:
1) The only way I will get Thor covers is by pulling Classic Tokens. For simplicity I am ignoring other ways to get covers (e.g. special stores with increased odds, Valkyrie champ rewards, heroes for hire, etc.)
2) I have Thor set as my only 5* bonus hero
3) I am ignoring bank conversions (i.e. my Thor is at 2/5/5 with 3 saved covers and I convert my 3 saved to the 1 color I need)
4) I am ignoring that as other 5* characters get released into the classic vault, the chances of pulling a random Thor get worse and worse
The odds:
There's a 1/7 chance of pulling a random 5*
Thor is 1/27 (once Loki rotates in) 5* characters in Classics
There's a 1/20 chance of pulling a bonus hero
Putting it together:
There's a 1/7 * 1/27 * 1/20 = 0.0265% chance of pulling a Thor and getting a bonus Thor (2 covers in 1 pull--jackpot!)
There's a 1/7 * 1/27 * 19/20 = 0.5026% chance of pulling a Thor and not getting a bonus
There's a 1/7 * 26/27 * 1/20 = 0.6878% chance of pulling a different 5* but getting a bonus Thor
And the remaining 98.7831% of the time, I'm a Thor loser.
The results:
I ran 10,000 simulations, and on average it took 1,236 pulls to fully cover a Thor, assuming I was starting from scratch.
The best result in that data set was 271 pulls.
The worst result was 3,930
Thankfully, I'm not starting from scratch, as my Thor is already at 2/0/0. So I ran those 10,000 simulations again, with my actual starting point. This time it only took on average 1,102 pulls to fully cover my Thor.
The best result was 229 pulls.
The worst result was 3,659
5
Comments
If that’s not your taste...I dunno. There will, I’m sure, be some options for a new meta eventually.
Thor was just featured in the Loki store a few months ago, so there’s probably a wait until that happens again.
Oh, I hope that you have 250CP on hand for the H5H next week. Thor might be one of the few I’d say buy any color you can when it comes up twice a year, especially if you’re starting from 2 covers.
Ultimately though, you are in the long process of building up your 4’s and that should be your focus for now, anyway.
Chance of a double Valkyrie: 6/7*1/69*1/20 : 0.06211% (Depressed yet?)
Chance of a single, non-bonus Val: 6/7*1/69*19/20: 1.1801%
Chance of a single, bonus Val: 6/7*68/69*1/20: 4.2236%
Chance of a single Val per classic token = 5.4037%, with a 1-in-1,610 chance of the 2xVal cover.
Assuming no Valkyrie at the start, you will need 113 covers (and a bunch of ISO, again assumed) to get her fully max-champed. That would take, on average, about 2,073 pulls to get 113 covers for her, assuming an average of one token that gives you a double-cover. So you probably won't get all of the covers you need while getting Thor, but it should certainly help shorten the wait.
bluewolf said: It's nice to run these numbers every once in a while to set yourself a goal, but bluewolf got it right. Building up the four stars is going to take a while. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the non-Thorkoye metagame.
This is is a great tool, that I just discovered, for these kind of simulations. I used it to see the range of pulls needed to cover my 1/5/5 Thanos (then pulled a black on my very first pull and flipped!).
I like that you can play with the odds if you choose to convert saved covers versus if you don’t. Also if you set the character as a bonus versus if you don’t. You can also set the dilution to your liking as well.
For example, with bonus heroes but without exchanging, I need 25-125 pulls to finish Kitty and 170 pulls for a 95% success rate.
If youre chasing someone I definitely suggest it. Shout out to Hadronic!
Probably get 2 or 3 Thors just from Val's rewards. All depends on how many you pull.
This game has a lot of walls. First it's HP, then ISO, then 5* covers.
the greatest wall of them all...
The combo of those 2 is pretty rough.
I like what they do with new releases and a store. Just wish it either lasted longer or was rotated each month.
Second, abandon all hope of completing classics via classic tokens, it's completely illogical, flied in the face of any proper statistics.
I largely agree with the others, Thor will be replaced by a new meta carrot. If that doesn't happen soon enough for you, your best bet to cover Thor is to hoard CP until he appears in a special vault e.g new release or themed event. Then you can use the standard ~300 stats
First, i dont think they want us to have that much control over our pulls. Rng over our pulls, and rng over BH may only be as far as they are willing to go.
Second is the coding. Considering how much trouble they have with legacy codes, I'm not sure they could even introduce a token that is customizable for every single player.
Unless....i guess they could just create a new token, and a new type of Bonus Hero. Make it a different color from the red for normal BH, and set it to only trigger when you pull from that store. The other stipulation being that you could only open the token if you have at least "X" number of characters with that new BH. Like 12, or maybe even 20. Then, when you pull from there, all you get is one of those specific characters, and no other.
Ok, so it is possible now that i think of it, but still unlikely
Recall from the original 10,000 simulations, with my Thor at 2/0/0, it took:
min: 229
average: 1,102
max: 3,659
If I also make Valk my one and only 4* bonus hero, as she is starting at level 275, my 2/0/0 Thor gets to full coverage in:
min: 225
average: 639
max: 1,260
Same assumptions as before apply--in this case, I'm also assuming no additional 4* characters get into classic packs which we know isn't realistic, so this is
So it does cut the time to champ down by 25%.
I need one more cover to champion my Thor. I've got Valk set as my 4-star BH, but need six more Valk covers to get the Thor cover I need. I won't have a chance at it until Kitty rotates out and I make my next stab at latest to try to finish Cable & Kingpin, plus pick up the new 5-star.