Nonce Equitaur 2 wrote: Currently, I have 8 covers for Punisher, all red and green. What I really want is a Black cover. I want to get Molotov Cocktail to 5 slots, eventually. This has happened to me several times -- I'll have 8 covers in two of the colors, and I'll get a ninth one of one of those two colors. Mathematically, the odds of this happening are 1 in 6561.
DayvBang wrote: Nonce Equitaur 2 wrote: Currently, I have 8 covers for Punisher, all red and green. What I really want is a Black cover. I want to get Molotov Cocktail to 5 slots, eventually. This has happened to me several times -- I'll have 8 covers in two of the colors, and I'll get a ninth one of one of those two colors. Mathematically, the odds of this happening are 1 in 6561. Combining the odds of your next draw with the odds of your previous draws is an example of the "Gambler's Fallacy" -- like saying that a given is lottery number is more likely to come up today if it hasn't come up all year. No matter what you've drawn before from a random pick (tokens, not event rewards), your odds on the current one exist in a vacuum. The odds of getting green or red as opposed to black are 2 in 3 (among Punisher covers only, of course). On the upside, every time the game decides to randomly give you a Punisher cover, there' same consistent 1 in 3 chance it will finally unlock black for you.