The ninth cover for a character

Nonce Equitaur 2

Today, I was lucky to get a Punisher cover.

Currently, I have 8 covers for Punisher, all red and green. What I really want is a Black cover. I want to get Molotov Cocktail to 5 slots, eventually.

This has happened to me several times -- I'll have 8 covers in two of the colors, and I'll get a ninth one of one of those two colors. Mathematically, the odds of this happening are 1 in 6561.

My suggestion -- the Ninth Cover for a character, whatever it is, a person should be able to pick its color. That would get around the awkwardness of the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupon_collector's_problem, and would avoid a lot of Respec problems.

IceIX

Not saying that you don't have something here, but you should also note that unless you pulled every single cover through tokens or other random chance, the fact that you have certain colors over others may be because of placement rewards. Depending on the Tournies or Events you place in, you can upgrade certain ability colors for some characters quick than others. Hulk, for example had a greater proportion of Green abilities handed out due to his unlock method. So the odds of having 4/4/0 may not be as low as stated depending on your acquisition methodology.

Nonce Equitaur 2

True, true ... due to awards and purchases, the distribution of the first 8 colors may not be random.

However -- the ninth cover should still be a bit special, whether it's purchased or randomly obtained. Anyone already having 8 covers of two colors is committed to that character, and anything other than the third color is likely a mournful exercise.

Unknown

What made you to decide upon 9 and not like 11? I see no logic in your decision.

Nonce Equitaur 2

If I have 8 covers in two colors, then I either have 3/5, 4/4, or 5/3.

If I accept that ninth cover in one of those two colors, it is then impossible for me to get 5 covers in the color I don't have.

DirigiblePilot

It would make more sense to me as the seventh cover, as that is where you are making a decision (if 3 and 3 in two colors, which I think is what you are implying) to level up a cover that locks you out of certain possibilities later. If you put something at 4, you cannot have both of the others at five, for example.

Dayv

Nonce Equitaur 2 wrote:

Currently, I have 8 covers for Punisher, all red and green. What I really want is a Black cover. I want to get Molotov Cocktail to 5 slots, eventually.

This has happened to me several times -- I'll have 8 covers in two of the colors, and I'll get a ninth one of one of those two colors. Mathematically, the odds of this happening are 1 in 6561.

Combining the odds of your next draw with the odds of your previous draws is an example of the "Gambler's Fallacy" -- like saying that a given is lottery number is more likely to come up today if it hasn't come up all year. No matter what you've drawn before from a random pick (tokens, not event rewards), your odds on the current one exist in a vacuum. The odds of getting green or red as opposed to black are 2 in 3 (among Punisher covers only, of course). On the upside, every time the game decides to randomly give you a Punisher cover, there's a consistent 1 in 3 chance it will finally unlock black for you.

Unknown

DayvBang wrote:

Nonce Equitaur 2 wrote:

Currently, I have 8 covers for Punisher, all red and green. What I really want is a Black cover. I want to get Molotov Cocktail to 5 slots, eventually.

This has happened to me several times -- I'll have 8 covers in two of the colors, and I'll get a ninth one of one of those two colors. Mathematically, the odds of this happening are 1 in 6561.

Combining the odds of your next draw with the odds of your previous draws is an example of the "Gambler's Fallacy" -- like saying that a given is lottery number is more likely to come up today if it hasn't come up all year. No matter what you've drawn before from a random pick (tokens, not event rewards), your odds on the current one exist in a vacuum. The odds of getting green or red as opposed to black are 2 in 3 (among Punisher covers only, of course). On the upside, every time the game decides to randomly give you a Punisher cover, there' same consistent 1 in 3 chance it will finally unlock black for you.

Words of wisdom I say.