New Character - Spider-Man (Cosmic) 6*

Blackstone

@KGB said:

@Gymp28 said:

@KGB said:

@JoeHandle said:

@trenchdigger said:
And the chances of those crits not making a single 3 in a row across the row or column of crits would be almost zero.

It is? Show your work, please.

All permutations of 2 tiles is 7x7=49.
Permutations that don't make a match 3 with a critical are 7x6=42.
So for any 2 gems the chance of no match with a critical is 42/49= .8571 (85.71%)
Over a full edge row/column that would be .8571^8=.2913 (29.13%).
Over a full middle row/column (with at least 2 tiles in one direction) that would be .8571^16=.0848 (8.48%).
Over a full middle row/column (with at least 2 tiles in all directions) that would be .8571^24=.0247 (2.47%).

The chance of 8 crits not making a single match is FAR from 0.

Note: I assumed that all 7 tile types were equally likely which isn't quite true since TUs occur slightly less than regular tiles but the calc won't change by much.

KGB

That’s awesome, nice math (I assume, I’m not checking your work), but I think the intention of the last few posts was that all 8 of these critical tiles would be on the same row or column.
What you have described feels like the odds of those 8 critical tiles being randomly distributed on the board and not making a match, which while nice work, is a different discussion.

So my edge row case (29%) is (for a row, column looks similar):
XXXXXXXX
YYYYYYYY
CCCCCCC
C= crit, X = tile of type X, Y = tile of type Y.
There are 8 potential matches that have to fail. That's the .8571 raised to the power of 8

So my middle row case (8%) with 2 tiles in at least one direction is (for a row, column looks similar):
XXXXXXXX
YYYYYYYY
CCCCCCC
ZZZZZZZZ
C= crit, X = tile of type X, Y = tile of type Y, Z = tile of type Z.
There are 16 potential matches that have to fail (XYC and YCZ). That's the .8571 raised to the power of 16.

So my middle row case (2%) with 2 tiles in at both directions is (for a row, column looks similar):
XXXXXXXX
YYYYYYYY
CCCCCCC
ZZZZZZZZ
VVVVVVVV
C= crit, X = tile of type X, Y = tile of type Y, Z = tile of type Z, V = tile of type V.
There are 24 potential matches that have to fail (XZC, YCZ and CZV). That's the .8571 raised to the power of 24.

KGB

It feels as though, while you answered the question the first time, you'll end up needing to break down the math with increasingly futile explanations.

I say "futile" because the explanations won't be understood for what they are, and you'll continue to be pressed to provide the same answer repeatedly while you're told you're not answering the question by people who seem to think they see something you don't, but don't realize they're just not understanding what they're seeing... Or at least are unable to think through three implications of what they're seeing because it doesn't match what they think they should see.

Anyway... Best of luck.

ThisisClemFandango

@entrailbucket said:
Sounds like an unofficial forum challenge!

Seeing as the forum is made up of maybe 10 people I'd say this challenge is for, I dunno, 2 to 3 people?
At the rate shards are being given out i might find out before I shuffle off this mortal coil.
Or the game closes in a year or so and none of it will matter.

MegaBee

@ThisisClemFandango said:

@entrailbucket said:
Sounds like an unofficial forum challenge!

Seeing as the forum is made up of maybe 10 people I'd say this challenge is for, I dunno, 2 to 3 people?

The devs have the opportunity to do the most hilarious thing right now and send out Cosmic Spider-Man covers as rewards for forum participation...

BriMan2222

@MegaBee said:

@ThisisClemFandango said:

@entrailbucket said:
Sounds like an unofficial forum challenge!

Seeing as the forum is made up of maybe 10 people I'd say this challenge is for, I dunno, 2 to 3 people?

The devs have the opportunity to do the most hilarious thing right now and send out Cosmic Spider-Man covers as rewards for forum participation...

They threw a giant temper tantrum on Discord when forum member got a free infinity stone of our choice, a stone that most of the people complaining already have and did not need. I can only imagine the epic meltdown if they gave us a 6 star cover

DAZ0273

Sounds like an epic plan!

trenchdigger

I'm posting a comment just on the off-chance

trenchdigger

@KGB I was about to post that you must have calculated this wrongly as I made it only 0.15% (hence my almost zero comment) then I looked back at my excel calculation and saw a stupid transposition error of power(6/7,42) instead of power(6/7,24).
So more like 2.5% which is still quite small given how hard it would be to achieve the complete line of crits with the tools currently at hand, but agree not almost zero!
Anyway thanks for correcting.
C- for me, must try harder!

bluewolf

Yesterday a player showed up who had somehow hacked their way into a level 700 Spidey. Prior to that their highest character was 5 MCU Spidey with like 10 covers.

In a way I envy them because they can play with fully covered Spidey now instead of 2028, but they’re also sandboxed. Tradeoffs, I guess.

entrailbucket

@bluewolf said:
Yesterday a player showed up who had somehow hacked their way into a level 700 Spidey. Prior to that their highest character was 5 MCU Spidey with like 10 covers.

In a way I envy them because they can play with fully covered Spidey now instead of 2028, but they’re also sandboxed. Tradeoffs, I guess.

I don't care that it will take nonspending or noncompetitive players forever to cover these guys. That's actually good, and how it should work.

The actual problem with what they're doing is that every single player is going to end up with fully covered 6* at exactly the same time, whether they spend or compete or just sit around doing nothing.

That's a recipe for disaster because they don't playtest anything, and they seem to care about balance again. They actually need early adopters to race out and break these guys.

The other problem is that we've never had a situation where literally everyone gets the best character at the same time. When Chasm was dominant he was probably like 10% of the metagame, at most. Players could skip and find non Chasm fights (depending on their roster and matchmaking, I guess). Now imagine 100% of the playerbase gets Chasm on the same day!

Pantera236

@entrailbucket said:

@bluewolf said:
Yesterday a player showed up who had somehow hacked their way into a level 700 Spidey. Prior to that their highest character was 5 MCU Spidey with like 10 covers.

In a way I envy them because they can play with fully covered Spidey now instead of 2028, but they’re also sandboxed. Tradeoffs, I guess.

I don't care that it will take nonspending or noncompetitive players forever to cover these guys. That's actually good, and how it should work.

The actual problem with what they're doing is that every single player is going to end up with fully covered 6* at exactly the same time, whether they spend or compete or just sit around doing nothing.

That's a recipe for disaster because they don't playtest anything, and they seem to care about balance again. They actually need early adopters to race out and break these guys.

The other problem is that we've never had a situation where literally everyone gets the best character at the same time. When Chasm was dominant he was probably like 10% of the metagame, at most. Players could skip and find non Chasm fights (depending on their roster and matchmaking, I guess). Now imagine 100% of the playerbase gets Chasm on the same day!

Definitely not exactly the same time. T10 in pve will get them at one time, 11-20 a little later and then 21-100 will be twice as long as t10. So a lot more people will take more time than not.

bluewolf

How is spending not going to help?

At least one whale has a full cover + on Spidey and I've got 80 shards so far. I seem to end up T100 anymore. So, you can dramatically accelerate your progress by spending.

I grant you their "plan" remains weird because they pulled all the direct shards out of offers and all you can do right now is buy tokens for vaults.

Maybe that's because you can spoof purchasing and hence maybe that's how the cheater covered him, and they're trying to avoid that until they can get some additional security in place or something. Or they want to hold back shards for a week or two at a time and then when they show up they seem like a big deal to jump onto.

Also, you get 50 each PVE so T10 gets 110 per PVE while 20-100 gets 80. Hence it won't be quite twice as long to get on in the lower rankings.

In any case, the people who are willing to buy all the shards they can will be dramatically ahead of the cheapskates like me and maybe they'll be rocking 13 cover spider next year already.

entrailbucket

@Pantera236 said:

@entrailbucket said:

@bluewolf said:
Yesterday a player showed up who had somehow hacked their way into a level 700 Spidey. Prior to that their highest character was 5 MCU Spidey with like 10 covers.

In a way I envy them because they can play with fully covered Spidey now instead of 2028, but they’re also sandboxed. Tradeoffs, I guess.

I don't care that it will take nonspending or noncompetitive players forever to cover these guys. That's actually good, and how it should work.

The actual problem with what they're doing is that every single player is going to end up with fully covered 6* at exactly the same time, whether they spend or compete or just sit around doing nothing.

That's a recipe for disaster because they don't playtest anything, and they seem to care about balance again. They actually need early adopters to race out and break these guys.

The other problem is that we've never had a situation where literally everyone gets the best character at the same time. When Chasm was dominant he was probably like 10% of the metagame, at most. Players could skip and find non Chasm fights (depending on their roster and matchmaking, I guess). Now imagine 100% of the playerbase gets Chasm on the same day!

Definitely not exactly the same time. T10 in pve will get them at one time, 11-20 a little later and then 21-100 will be twice as long as t10. So a lot more people will take more time than not.

That helps but I'm not sure it makes it that much better. A few PvE overachievers will get them first but most of the game will still all get them at the same time. I'm not sure why they're prioritizing PvE for this either.

entrailbucket

@bluewolf said:
How is spending not going to help?

At least one whale has a full cover + on Spidey and I've got 80 shards so far. I seem to end up T100 anymore. So, you can dramatically accelerate your progress by spending.

I grant you their "plan" remains weird because they pulled all the direct shards out of offers and all you can do right now is buy tokens for vaults.

Maybe that's because you can spoof purchasing and hence maybe that's how the cheater covered him, and they're trying to avoid that until they can get some additional security in place or something. Or they want to hold back shards for a week or two at a time and then when they show up they seem like a big deal to jump onto.

Also, you get 50 each PVE so T10 gets 110 per PVE while 20-100 gets 80. Hence it won't be quite twice as long to get on in the lower rankings.

In any case, the people who are willing to buy all the shards they can will be dramatically ahead of the cheapskates like me and maybe they'll be rocking 13 cover spider next year already.

Did they even sell a full cover of Spidey shards so far? That might not be legit. So far it seems like spending will only speed you up a tiny bit, because they're selling, like, 25 shards once a week.

bluewolf

@entrailbucket said:

@bluewolf said:
How is spending not going to help?

At least one whale has a full cover + on Spidey and I've got 80 shards so far. I seem to end up T100 anymore. So, you can dramatically accelerate your progress by spending.

I grant you their "plan" remains weird because they pulled all the direct shards out of offers and all you can do right now is buy tokens for vaults.

Maybe that's because you can spoof purchasing and hence maybe that's how the cheater covered him, and they're trying to avoid that until they can get some additional security in place or something. Or they want to hold back shards for a week or two at a time and then when they show up they seem like a big deal to jump onto.

Also, you get 50 each PVE so T10 gets 110 per PVE while 20-100 gets 80. Hence it won't be quite twice as long to get on in the lower rankings.

In any case, the people who are willing to buy all the shards they can will be dramatically ahead of the cheapskates like me and maybe they'll be rocking 13 cover spider next year already.

Did they even sell a full cover of Spidey shards so far? That might not be legit. So far it seems like spending will only speed you up a tiny bit, because they're selling, like, 25 shards once a week.

Yes, it was fully legit. Part of the bump over Galactus is they had an offer where you could get 100 shards and pick between G and SM. The shards are small in increments but it's been enough, or it was before they pulled back on offers. Recently you can only add like 125 with super lucky vault pulls in the two vaults.

entrailbucket

@bluewolf said:

@entrailbucket said:

@bluewolf said:
How is spending not going to help?

At least one whale has a full cover + on Spidey and I've got 80 shards so far. I seem to end up T100 anymore. So, you can dramatically accelerate your progress by spending.

I grant you their "plan" remains weird because they pulled all the direct shards out of offers and all you can do right now is buy tokens for vaults.

Maybe that's because you can spoof purchasing and hence maybe that's how the cheater covered him, and they're trying to avoid that until they can get some additional security in place or something. Or they want to hold back shards for a week or two at a time and then when they show up they seem like a big deal to jump onto.

Also, you get 50 each PVE so T10 gets 110 per PVE while 20-100 gets 80. Hence it won't be quite twice as long to get on in the lower rankings.

In any case, the people who are willing to buy all the shards they can will be dramatically ahead of the cheapskates like me and maybe they'll be rocking 13 cover spider next year already.

Did they even sell a full cover of Spidey shards so far? That might not be legit. So far it seems like spending will only speed you up a tiny bit, because they're selling, like, 25 shards once a week.

Yes, it was fully legit. Part of the bump over Galactus is they had an offer where you could get 100 shards and pick between G and SM. The shards are small in increments but it's been enough, or it was before they pulled back on offers. Recently you can only add like 125 with super lucky vault pulls in the two vaults.

They need to ramp this WAY up. The competitive players will pay if they have to but they're only selling, like, a 2 week lead on the entire rest of the playerbase.

SuperCarrot

Has anybody bothered to figure out their formula for the shard prices? If so, I am curious as to what it is. The shards seem to be tacked on to previous bundles…or some that are very similar to my memory of the bundles without the 6 shards.

entrailbucket

@SuperCarrot said:
Has anybody bothered to figure out their formula for the shard prices? If so, I am curious as to what it is. The shards seem to be tacked on to previous bundles…or some that are very similar to my memory of the bundles without the 6 shards.

That's what I've noticed too. I'm not sure if someone has been tracking it more closely.

bluewolf

The path of least resistance to making them available is as bonus rewards on top of existing offers, for getting them out on things that you know work (see the Spidey 2099 costume offer for one that didn’t at first look correct).

People rightly complain about not needing those offer contents but if you’re a whale what really moves your needle anyway? Only 6* shards, probably. So any old offer will do from one point of view.

If you earn 110 per pve because you’re a T10 player, and they have 3 in rotation, you’re playing for about 2.5 seasons before you get 600 that the whales got within a week of release. We’re getting more right now with 2 6s alternating but it’s only 17 days to the next 6.

JoeHandle

People chasing t10 in PvE can have the 6s. Please!

Imagine if everyone was given Chasm on the same day.... don't have to imagine, I usually play sim very early at start of each season.

bluewolf

I have no problem with people who play harder or better getting better stuff.

I was just quibbling with the stated difference in gain between a T10 and others below them under current rewards structure.