How much will the bonus shard changes affect the number of pulls needed for the 3 Latest?

Scofie

Had a really interesting question from an Alliance-mate today about how many pulls are likely to be required to get all 3 LLs to 550 with the new changes to bonus shards. Had anyone started a model to impact the changes?

And if so, is it going to affect the number by much?

Domitronas

Well with the old system, on paper you were getting 10 5* shards per 100 LT pulls, with the new system you'll be getting, again - on paper, 837,5 shards.

KGB

I don't know what the old model was

But 2000 pulls should net you 300 covers (2000 * .15=300).
That will also net you ~20 of the 500 shard bonus (2000 * .01=20) or 20 covers.
That will also net you ~30 of the 125 shard bonus (2000 * .015=30) or 7.5 covers (125 * 30/500=7.5)
That will also net you ~60 of the 50 shard bonus (2000 * .03=60) or 6 covers (50 * 60/500=6)
You'll also get 6000 shards (2000 * 3) or 12 covers.

Add that up and you should get 300+20+7.5+6+12=345.5 covers.

You need 113 covers (13 to champ + 100 champ levels) for a 550 or 339 covers for all 3.

So 2000 draws slightly exceeds the expected number required if you start at 0 covers in all 3.

Note1: You will also get enough shards via 4* feeders (2000 * 15=30000/400 = 75 covers) for 75 covers so you can get ~3 more covers via 4* feeders to help with bad RNG (<15% draw rate). I didn't add in 4* bonus shards which would net another 30ish covers so 100 covers total so you can probably get ~5 covers more via 4* feeders since every 20 levels on a 4* gets you 1 5* sharded cover.

Note2: You'll also get ~1700 4 star covers and at 140 characters that works out to be ~12 champ cover rewards per 4 star. That will net a lot of champ rewards (LTs, CPs), probably on the order 75+ more draws in case you go WAY under the 15% draw rate and of course plenty more LT's/CP's from 5 star champ rewards (for some reason I can't find the list of 5 star champ rewards, the only thing anyone posts is feeders but never the rewards per level - LOL). In other words, there should be another 100-120 draws worth of rewards to get you another 15-20 covers in case of bad draw rate.

KGB

P.S. @Domitronas - Edited and thanks for picking up on me missing those extra 6 covers from the 50 shard bonus.

entrailbucket

I can guarantee that someone out there has a model for this that accounts for all the factors, and it's probably already updated with whatever the new changes are.

It's definitely not anyone who's on the forum regularly though... someone here can maybe reach out to their Line contacts to find out?

Domitronas

@KGB said:
I don't know what the old model was

But 2000 pulls should net you 300 covers (2000 * .15=300).
That will also net you ~20 of the 500 shard bonus (2000 * .01=20) or 20 covers.
That will also net you ~30 of the 125 shard bonus (2000 * .015=30) or 7.5 covers (125 * 30/500=7.5)
You'll also get 6000 shards (2000 * 3) or 12 covers.

Add that up and you should get 300+20+7.5+12=339.5 covers.

You forgot to add the 3% chance for the 50 bonus shard. That's another 3000 shards, or 6 covers.

Scofie

So it's effectively 84 pulls fewer out of 2000 or 4.2% and, if starting with 0 covers, would require ~1912 pulls?

I'd be fascinated to see the model and distribution if anyone knows anyone that has plugged it all in.