A Strictly Economic View of Shield Use in PvP
Comments
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@HoundofShadow said:
I calculated that 1cp = 100 hp using the difference between the first two whales costumes a few years back....
5000 HP = 125-75 = 50cps
Therefore, 1 CP = 100 HPThis seems, to me, an odd way to figure this value. There's no way to convert one to the other, in game, at that rate. Personally, I find it more helpful to figure based on what resource one is aiming for (5* shards? Command Points? HP? LL pulls?), then look at what mechanisms exist to convert the others. If you are trying to convert Com Points to HP, then perhaps you figure what the average champ reward is (in HP) from Classics, then 20CP equals that amount?
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The one who decided the value of the bundles was the ex-dev. So, it makes sense to me to calculate things from their pov. What I did was make use of the information provided by them and use some simple math to work out the value of cp and hp equivalent.
Again, with the new dev team, those calculations aren't relevant now. I mean, look at the current offer, you can buy at least one cover of 5* Wong right now, which I don't think has happened before. HP store is not a cash only transactions because you can use your earned HP to pull. So, I won't count that you can "buy" 5* cover since release of Prof X.
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I think you can quibble with his valuation of certain rewards, but the big takeaway from this is about comparing the value of rewards earned vs shields spent. A lot of players don't bother doing that at all, and they end up spending way more for placement than those rewards are actually worth.
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So just an update regarding the value of HP vs 5* covers: I've been tracking every deal offered by the devs for the last 2+ weeks. What I was able to do with this is create a regression to see how the devs value both 5* covers and HP per USD, then create an equivalency between the two. Across 57 deals, the value of 1 5* cover has been equivalent to 2834 HP. So I went back and updated the PvP placement HP based on this, and not surprisingly, the HP gain goes way up, suggesting shield use may be more appropriate (but still probably much less than folks would naturally think):
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This is super interesting helix72! I don't quite understand this chart though. Why would 600 iHulk shards be worth 1.35 5-star covers? Isn't it by definition worth 1.2? Ah - you must be factoring in some degree of 5-star champ rewards? That must be the same with the 6 LL tokens being worth 1.7 5-star covers? (and not 6/7 of a 5 star).
So if someone has a newer roster and does not have champed 4s and 5s ... the yield would be lower and the HP cost per 5-star would rise. So does that mean I should be willing to spend more HP in a vault per 5-star than your 1250 assumption?
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@ElectricVasting thanks for the feedback!
To answer your first question: you are correct! I am factoring in the value of the 5* champ rewards. As a simple example, a 5* character takes 13 covers to champ and then has 100 bonus levels. Over those 113 covers, you'll get back 25 LL tokens as rewards. So in my calculations, each 5* cover, in addition to the cover itself, is worth 25/113 = 0.22 LL tokens.
You are also correct that the champ rewards "escalate"--I've made a simplifying assumption by taking the average rewards over all 113 covers, but as an example for the first 13 covers you'll get no champ rewards at all.
Whether you want to spend more HP per cover depends on your current roster and your goals for your gameplay--do you want to champ them all? Just the ones you like? Do you want to compete for progression at a high level? Do you want to get every toon to 550?
The model results I shared also treat the value of every 5* equally. This is absolutely not the case for the vast majority of players--for example, I suspect most people would agree that 500 5* Shang-Chi shards are worth more than 500 5* Wasp shards. In my personal usage, I've taken the model and applied my personal view of 5* character values, reflecting the fact that I'd be willing to pay more for characters I see as more valuable.
So while I can't give you my personal opinion on if/how much more HP you should be willing to spend in a vault per 5-star without a bit more detail, hopefully this explanation helps inform your decision.
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I have almost all 4s rostered but none champed (some fully covered but not levelling them up to 270 yet). Rostered maybe a third of 5s but most are at low covers (SC at 8, Okoye/mThor at 6-ish, others at 1-3). I'm starting to accrue HP and trying to figure out whether I should be spending on the Kamar-taj vault to get more SC covers or whether I should be saving HP for anniversary / super-amazing vaults. I think my goal at this point is to compete for progression -- with whatever's entailed with that. I know you can't tell me how much HP I should be willing to spend on a SC cover, but I would love your thoughts on how you would think about this if you were in my shoes.
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At 8 covers he is too far away for 1 more cover to matter much. If you were at 11 covers and needed to champ him to respec your cover distribution it would make sense.
Also, it's clear to me at least that vaults with 5* favorite shards in them is going to be happening going forward so if you pass now, you'll have another chance in another month or two etc.
The other thing to know is what's your average roster level of the top 5 characters. If you play PvP it matters if you champ 1 5* and the rest of your roster is in the 260-270 range as it might make PvP unplayable.
My suggestion is you pass now and wait till later.
KGB
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Thank you for your thoughts -- I appreciate them! I know I'm not going to be able to use him with just one more cover, but I was kinda thinking maybe I could pick up a cover here, pick up a cover there, and then if there's a special store where the other two 5s are not so great, I won't have to use as many CP to fully cover him. Or maybe I'll be able to fully cover him without a special store (using feeders and milestone shards to get the last few).
Re: PVP, I'm not necessarily planning to champ him right away ... I'm not sure if he's usable or not at like levels 255-300 or if you need to champ him to be helpful in PVE. I'm in a hybrid alliance so I definitely have to be able to win PVP matches and it turns into a slog when the opponents are too tough ...
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