Commend the efforts, but since we're never going to get any information on standard deviations [for pull rates], it only really represents the expected values, if the pulls you do are in the magical sweet spot, where your pull rate matches the official pull rates, and your spread of covers is remotely sane (I'm sure that at least half of us have hit a ridiculous point of 5/2/0 with 7 saved covers).
Just to be 100% clear that I am interpreting this data correctly:Using the boss + SCL10 PVE scenario, if I always pull 286 times for each set of 3 latest, then 3 times out of 4 I will cover all 3, but 1 time out of 4 I will not?And even if every time I pull 363 times, then 19 times out of 20 I will cover all 3, but 1 time out of 20 I will not.
Did this account for undesired cover distributions or were you only considering getting to 13 covers per 5*?
I've run a quick calc that doesn't account for cover distribution and hit a mean of 320ish pulls to cover the three 5s with no other shards or covers. I'm going to assume then, since this post presents a mean higher than that (390), that it is accounting for cover distribution.EDIT: Ran my own simulation to confirm the case accounting for cover distribution and got 390ish mean and 90ish STD, same as original post. So can confirm that these stat distributions are accounting for bad cover distributions in your pulls already.
You all making this super complicated. As a super hoarder. These calculations are very misleading. 260 pulls is what the minimum was to cover each 5* to 13 covers. However, the color spread was not ideal and you needed swaps to get the color of choice. That's where 300 pulls came from. That became the ideal number without swaps. So. You need 300 pulls to complete 3x 450. You're still relying on RNG, and predetermined pulls. Either it will go your way or it won't.
Great Job on thisCould you adjust the program so you only pull until the the oldest 5* is champed?Otherwise, you are feeding champ covers to 2 out of 3 characters while chasing the last 5*.I usually pull about 70 to 100 covers per month to keep my LLs champed before they leave latest.Lately a few have escaped Un-champed with <250 Shards requiredBoss covers are helping reduce this number a lot