Drop Rates

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Wolfteeth
Wolfteeth Posts: 125 Tile Toppler
in MtGPQ General Discussion
Just bought 4 premium packs of the new set.  Zero mythics and 2 of the bonus rares were dupes.  Why is this game like this???? Why are you all so stingy with the mythics?? Outside of the VIP packs that have a guaranteed mythic, I don’t think I’ve gotten one in 3 months.  And the last one I got prior to that was a duplicate. 

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  • Mburn7
    Mburn7 Posts: 3,427 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Its always been like that sadly.  Just imagine the same thing happening, but the Premium Packs cost 600 crystals (for well over double the cards) and you can only get like 100 crystals per week max.
    That's what the system was when I first started playing many many moons ago.
    It sucked then, it sucks now, and it will probably continue to suck for a long time more  :(
  • Gunmix25
    Gunmix25 Posts: 1,434 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Wolfteeth said:
    Just bought 4 premium packs of the new set.  Zero mythics and 2 of the bonus rares were dupes.  Why is this game like this???? Why are you all so stingy with the mythics?? Outside of the VIP packs that have a guaranteed mythic, I don’t think I’ve gotten one in 3 months.  And the last one I got prior to that was a duplicate. 
    I purchased 10 premium packs and received 6 mythics, 1 of which was a dupe. In every set set since Kaladesh days Rares have always been duped badly and I won't lie... the dupe rate is no where near as bad as it had been some 3 years ago. If you are a newer player I can totally see the frustration as each dupe just grates on your nerves when all one wants is new cards. I remember pulling in IXN the same mythic... 11 times in a row and I only had 1 other mythic from that set pulled prior to that ridiculous run. I absolutely refuse to play that card out of principal, it made me so mad. Thankfully DOM graced me with a plethora of mythics on release day. So it varies for players. The last release only coughed up one mythic in 12 Premium packs, this time I got 6. A clanmate only got 1 this time for the same number of Premium packs while another pulled 4 mythics in four premiums. It is all over the board.

    It does suck, but the drops rates have been consistent as a whole. a rather smart player has repeatedly tried to tell us time and time again, even with evidence to support that the drop rate isn't gamed. But many don't believe him regardless of what he says.  :(
  • ambrosio191
    ambrosio191 Posts: 293 Mover and Shaker
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    I've opened two single booster packs of KHM and gotten two unique mythics plus a rare.  Drop rates happen on both sides of the spectrum.  So far I've been very lucky, but as I open more my rates will even out to what's expected from the packs.
  • Narcoticsagent
    Narcoticsagent Posts: 203 Tile Toppler
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    I am currently on the spectacular luck side with 2 mythics and 2 rares out of 3 single packs. 
  • Wolfteeth
    Wolfteeth Posts: 125 Tile Toppler
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    I also am in my second week of VIP and not a single Mythic.  I am over this game
  • QuiksilverHg
    QuiksilverHg Posts: 126 Tile Toppler
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    This is probably a pipe dream, but anyone think we could talk them into a dupe protection structured similar to magic arena?
  • ambrosio191
    ambrosio191 Posts: 293 Mover and Shaker
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    QuiksilverHg said:
    This is probably a pipe dream, but anyone think we could talk them into a dupe protection structured similar to magic arena?

    We already have this, it's called VIP.
  • Asylamb
    Asylamb Posts: 160 Tile Toppler
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    Booster Crafting is somewhat reminiscent of Wildcards from Arena. The only improvement to Crafting would be the direct selection of a card you want out of the cardpool.
  • Tezzeret
    Tezzeret Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
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    I have been disappointed EVERY new set release with buying PP. Dosnt matter if I buy and open 1 or 10 its ALWASY a disappointment. I didn't buy into them this set... Ill just collect this set naturally  from event packs and rewards.

    And use my hard earn Crystal's for the remaining PMA cards and some new walkers! 
    And hearing some of the 10-20 pp opening woes I'm glad I am!
  • Tezzeret
    Tezzeret Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    edited February 2021
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    Wolfteeth said:
    I also am in my second week of VIP and not a single Mythic.  I am over this game
    VIP dosnt really shine when a new set comes out. since the non duplicate packs are mostly a complete waste until you have collected every common/uncommon and  rare in standard rotation. and since it's highly unlikely you will get even all the common/uncommon cards even in the first  month or so... hold out  an d horde your  non dupe packs and crack them when you have collected everything and get 5 mythic/MP EVERY pack!!
  • madwren
    madwren Posts: 2,227 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Wolfteeth said:
    I also am in my second week of VIP and not a single Mythic.  I am over this game

    You're generally paying for non-dupes, not for mythics.  VIP isn't rewarding at the start of a set; I usually wait until I have under 10 total uncommons & commons left before cracking any VIP packs.
  • Narcoticsagent
    Narcoticsagent Posts: 203 Tile Toppler
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    madwren said:
    Wolfteeth said:
    I also am in my second week of VIP and not a single Mythic.  I am over this game

    You're generally paying for non-dupes, not for mythics.  VIP isn't rewarding at the start of a set; I usually wait until I have under 10 total uncommons & commons left before cracking any VIP packs.
    This is exactly my strategy. Wait until under 10 commons uncommon. For ZNR I finished the set with 1 non dupe pack left.
  • JinQuiet
    JinQuiet Posts: 71 Match Maker
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    Wolfteeth

    You should me aware that VIP in this game is an extreme test of your impulse control and a delayed gratification braking point exploration.

    Something akin to Stanford marshmallow experiment.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QX_oy9614HQ

    Difference comes with periods of waiting.
    For example for ZNR, previous set, in order to open the packs and get the full set you should have been waiting for 4 months to something close to that.

    3-4 months of waiting is a normal state of affairs, so before subscribing you should be fully conscious that this is the case!
  • Gunmix25
    Gunmix25 Posts: 1,434 Chairperson of the Boards
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    madwren said:
    Wolfteeth said:
    I also am in my second week of VIP and not a single Mythic.  I am over this game

    You're generally paying for non-dupes, not for mythics.  VIP isn't rewarding at the start of a set; I usually wait until I have under 10 total uncommons & commons left before cracking any VIP packs.
    @JinQuiet has pointed out, there is a wait period or collecting alternating packs of Standard and Legacy and the process takes awhile. Many veterans had gotten lucky and were VIP in the early stages of the program. The collect rate was insane, I had well over 100 mythics left to collect and some 60 rares and a plethora or C and UC cards left when I started (which was day 1 of VIP release) and 3 months later I had everything collected. Then we saved packs to open on release day and collected like Nifflers at a Tiffany's.  :D 

    but many of us knew this was a serious oversight and needed to be corrected and they did. I personally approve of the changes as I now have value in my Orbs again (crafting Exclusives when released), The sense of pulling a great card has come back a little (prior the change that feeling was non-existent as I knew I was going to pull the card regardless) these days you don't know when you might pull the card you want and that is okay with me, even as a top tier VIP.  

    From experience I don't recall pulling any rares, mythics or masterpieces before I pulled all the C & UC cards first. Keep that in mind; though I cannot speak for others on that but that is my experience with VIP packs.

    Patience and determination will get you where you want to be. 
  • QuiksilverHg
    QuiksilverHg Posts: 126 Tile Toppler
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    I suppose I should expand on my previous suggestion. Within Arena the dupe protection is only within the same rarity.  I was thinking that instead of the current system at which you can in your very first pack get two of the same card have the program for each card:

    1. Roll to determine rarity
    2. Randomly select a non-collected card of the same rarity
    3. If all cards of the given rarity have been collected, assign a random card and convert to runes / orbs.

    Completely different from the non-dupe packs which can upgrade rarities, just insuring that when you still have 25 Mythics to collect you don’t have the rage-inducing experience of getting duplicates of the 3 Mythics you do have
  • JinQuiet
    JinQuiet Posts: 71 Match Maker
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    Speaking about drop rates:

    Granted I tested this only on "Zendicar Rising set but you can get the general Idea from the numbers.

    If you want a full set like Zendikar Rising (261 cards) and want to invest real money to get all the cards (including masterpieces) think about these numbers. Think hard.

    Running through the sample of 10000 attempts to get the full set by just buying premium packs I got these results:

    Case of extreme luck:: 5000 packs to open,    1000 Premium Packs,    300000 crystals to use, 10000 $ to spend
    Case of extreme bad luck:: 32357 packs to open,    6472 Premium Packs,    1941420 crystals to use, 64714 $ to spend
    Case of average luck :: 13085 packs to open, 2617 Premium Packs, 785100 crystals to use, 26170 $ to spend

    You can think about resources you're going to accumulate while dusting duplicates and getting guaranteed rares are not the part of the calculation but money invested stays virtually on the level described above

  • Hydrophilice
    Hydrophilice Posts: 4 Just Dropped In
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    I have had the same unfortunate experience purchasing premium packs with my hard-earned crystals.  I have never got a mythic considering my odds are 20%.  All cards are dupes as is the guaranteed rare.  This is extremely disheartening considering and I find the only way of getting mythics is to save up 400 pink crystals or 3000 mana orbs.
  • Tutaha
    Tutaha Posts: 35 Just Dropped In
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    I spent 480 pink crystals in the KDH vanguard and got the same card 3x, lols I just wanted serra. I guess I was extremely unlucky
  • ArielSira
    ArielSira Posts: 490 Mover and Shaker
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    The droprates are not just low but also misleading; buying multiple packs shouldn't change the percentage but in the vault all percentages get added. The actual droprates are the ones when viewing a single pack.
  • JinQuiet
    JinQuiet Posts: 71 Match Maker
    edited March 2021
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    @Tutaha

    If you're planning on gambling with rare vanguards in Kaldheim you should expect outcomes in the following range

    To get all 5 rare Vanguards:
    On average you'll need to open 13 packs (120 pink crystal packs) It's 1560 crystals
    If you're extremely lucky (no one is) it's 5 packs. It's 600 crystals
    If you're extremely unlucky (everyone is) it's 61 packs. It's 7320 crystals

    In the process you're likely to get 1 mythic Vanguard. On average.

    @ArielSira
    Here are the real probabilities for card opening. Not per pack but per card:
    54.09% (5409 out of 10000 cards opened) for Common cards
    39.04% (3904 out of 10000 cards opened) for Uncommon cards
    05.37% (0537 out of 10000 cards opened) for Rare cards
    01.43% (0143 out of 10000 cards opened) for Mythic cards
    00.07% (0007 out of 10000 cards opened) for Masterpiece cards

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