Is it just my bad luck ...

BeetleGeorge
BeetleGeorge Posts: 76 Match Maker
in MPQ General Discussion
or has something been changed in draw probabilities?
From the latest about 50 LL draws and 20 CL draws I made, I got not a single 5*. Normally I got one after about a dozen draws latest.
In the long run, my statistics contains the draws of more than a year, I'm still above 13% 5* draws at both but the tendency definitely doesn't look bright.

Comments

  • BeetleGeorge
    BeetleGeorge Posts: 76 Match Maker
    If one is hoarding then he has good chances to get a certain new 5* quite high. But I am rather the collector sort and all of my 5* and 4* are quite low. So with Classics I can raise the average level of my material faster as long as I do not care too much about who gets raised.
  • Michael1957
    Michael1957 Posts: 630 Critical Contributor
    I don’t hoard pulls and have been pulling at 25% since July , 1 pull per day . RNG can be beaten it’s just numbers 
  • Ares76
    Ares76 Posts: 227 Tile Toppler
    I was pullig classics with my hard earned CP for three years and never regretted it. But that changed about four months ago. With the current 5-star-dillution there came a point when I saw no sense in it anymore. There are 46 out of 49 five-stars in the classics pool right now. That means you will have to pull (7x46=) 322 times on average to get a specific 5-star. But it's not guaranteed to get the one you need and you could need even more pulls for example to finish a character that is sitting at 12 covers.
    On the other side with the CP from that 322 Classic-pulls you can pull 257,6 times from a special store or the latest lengends. 257 pulls mean 12,2 covers for each of the three characters. Especially if you pull from the Latest Legends Store the odds to finish them are in your favor as those are featured in the current PvE's every few weeks and there you can earn around 2 more colorless covers from shards for every character.
    And if you still want to finish a classsic character sitting at 12 covers (and no feeder is around the corner) you could sharget him while doing your 257 Latest Legends-pulls. 167 pulls and you can switch to the next one who only needs one cover. Sometimes you even get 5-star bonus shards.
    On the topic: I don't track my pulls to not get sad about miserable streaks. Sometimes it feels like having not drawn a five-star for 50 pulls like you did. But sometimes you get two in a row. My record even was four in a row. If the devs say that it evens out someday then I (have to) believe them.
  • helix72
    helix72 Posts: 995 Critical Contributor
    I think it's a personal decision. I have a hybrid classics/latests approach which has me draw from classics every 10 days or so just until I hit a single usable 5* cover. The 4* champ rewards are nice, plus 4*s feeding 5*s that I need are great. I don't try to champ every new 5*, I just hoard for the meta ones. There's also a shard benefit as keep in mind with shards, it takes:

    For a 4* cover:
    775 CP in latests
    625 CP in classics

    For a 5* cover:
    4175 CP in latests
    3350 CP in classics

    Excluding bonus shards, which I don't think anyone has figured out yet (but if you have, please let me know).

    Now, when Class of 2020 PvP rolls around next anniversary, I'm in trouble. But otherwise, my approach suits me.
  • helix72
    helix72 Posts: 995 Critical Contributor
    @BeetleGeorge I think I know where your 5*s went:
    Michael1957 said:
    I don’t hoard pulls and have been pulling at 25% since July , 1 pull per day . RNG can be beaten it’s just numbers 

  • sambrookjm
    sambrookjm Posts: 2,157 Chairperson of the Boards
    I've gone 0/71 as my high (low?) point, so it's just RNG being a harsh mistress.  It really does even out eventually.
  • Taganov
    Taganov Posts: 279 Mover and Shaker
    sambrookjm said:
    I've gone 0/71 as my high (low?) point, so it's just RNG being a harsh mistress.  It really does even out eventually.
    I sure hope so. I've had terrible pulls since OMD joined the fray (~1 in 45). Really hoping to cover the current three while it's possible.

  • Michael1957
    Michael1957 Posts: 630 Critical Contributor
    helix72 said:
    @BeetleGeorge I think I know where your 5*s went:
    Michael1957 said:
    I don’t hoard pulls and have been pulling at 25% since July , 1 pull per day . RNG can be beaten it’s just numbers 

    My 5* are only the new releases since July when I first began to pull from LL. 
    I now have 8 covered at 9/13 , which is a huge improvement from pulling Classics for 3 years and getting a 6/13 at best . 

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