Next Shield Training's required 4* -- Capworth or Torch?

YepyepYepyep Posts: 700 Critical Contributor
Do we have any information yet on this? Or are there historical data that indicate which (or both? god forbid...) is likely to be required?

Mine are both poorly covered, and realistically I will only be able to get one of them -- if that -- to 10 covers using bonus hero designation.  What are others of you doing about this?
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Comments

  • bluewolfbluewolf Posts: 4,349 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited October 2019
    The history of Shield Training since approx Emma's release is that you can predict one of the required people from the placement rewards in the PVE prior to release.

    From the App store notes, we know SM2099 to release on 10/10.  The PVE prior is DP v MPQ which rewards Torch, so unless they break their 14 month long pattern, he will be one of the essentials.

    I cannot predict the other two since there's no pattern that I can discern there any more.

    EDIT:  I don't think one of the other two will be Brokencap.  I feel certain of that.
  • furbear00000furbear00000 Posts: 133 Tile Toppler
    I’m hoping it’s Worthy. He’s the one I want to cover first. But chances are it’ll be Hammond since he was released first....

    I’m still BHing Worthy anyways...
  • MegaBeeMegaBee Posts: 272 Mover and Shaker
    I'm SOL either way. 
  • The Viceroy ReturnsThe Viceroy Returns Posts: 447 Mover and Shaker
    It SHOULD be either Juggernaut or Jim Torch.
    Juggernaut might get skipped though.

    I doubt it will be WorthyCap because he has not been rewarded as Placement or Progression in a PVE (outside of his release).
    I've got a 1 3 5 Jim Torch and a 2 4 2 WorhtyCap, and set both as Bonus Hero until we know which is needed, so I should hopefully be ready either way...
  • JHawkIncJHawkInc Posts: 2,160 Chairperson of the Boards
    Torch is offered in placement in the event before, and will be offered in progression in the PVE event that starts at the same time as Shield Training. Based on that, it should be him. That much, the devs have been consistent on for over a year.

    The other two? No idea, because that's one of the few areas the devs don't actually stick to a predictable pattern.
  • KGBKGB Posts: 948 Critical Contributor
    edited October 2019
    Definitely won't be Juggs since he was an essential in Worthy Caps release.

    It seems that every other 4* release is the one required for ST since they seem to skip a fair number of them from being required. But based on Torch being in the prior PvE I fear it's going to be him (0/1/4) vs Worthy Cap (3/2/2).

    While I appreciate Taskmaster being the Shield Sim cover, it's normally the 4* required for ST who is the Shield Sim cover so we all miss out on a cover there we desperately need. Torch has not been in any vaults or any PvE/PvP events since his initial release so I imagine VERY VERY few having him covered or even close to being covered since he just went into tokens.

    Given this release is during anniversary they *should* make the 3rd character either Dino or Taskmaster rather than Torch/Cap.

    KGB
  • ThaRoadWarriorThaRoadWarrior Posts: 4,264 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited October 2019
    will this be the all-limited shield training?
  • shardwickshardwick Posts: 1,524 Chairperson of the Boards
    My Torch is ready to go and I think one of the other two will be Spiderverse, maybe Miles, to compliment 2099. The third could be Domino or Cloak and Dagger to generate blacks for 2099.
  • YepyepYepyep Posts: 700 Critical Contributor
    Excellent, thanks everyone. The point about the reward in PvE prior is an especially good one. I'll BH Mr. Hammond.
  • ThaRoadWarriorThaRoadWarrior Posts: 4,264 Chairperson of the Boards
    shardwick said:
    My Torch is ready to go and I think one of the other two will be Spiderverse, maybe Miles, to compliment 2099. The third could be Domino or Cloak and Dagger to generate blacks for 2099.
    The wing persons are almost never that synergistic. It’ll turn out to be like Mockingbird and Flaptain or something totally random.
  • Monsoon3Monsoon3 Posts: 22 Just Dropped In
    Considering that I've only pulled 4 bonus heroes in my last 194 latest legend or 25 CP stores, it doesn't matter who I bonus. I'll never get enough to cover either.
  • jameshjamesh Posts: 1,582 Chairperson of the Boards
    It's also possible that we'll see three classic characters for SHIELD Training.  While they have been picking extremely new characters recently, they've at least been available as the final progression reward in the Simulator, and been available in packs for a while.  Neither of those is true for Torch.
  • YepyepYepyep Posts: 700 Critical Contributor
    Monsoon3 said:
    Considering that I've only pulled 4 bonus heroes in my last 194 latest legend or 25 CP stores, it doesn't matter who I bonus. I'll never get enough to cover either.
    Well, I understand but that condition is exactly what should be setting you up for a whole string of bonus drops...
  • jameshjamesh Posts: 1,582 Chairperson of the Boards
    Yepyep said:
    Monsoon3 said:
    Considering that I've only pulled 4 bonus heroes in my last 194 latest legend or 25 CP stores, it doesn't matter who I bonus. I'll never get enough to cover either.
    Well, I understand but that condition is exactly what should be setting you up for a whole string of bonus drops...
    That's not how independent random numbers work.  It's like flipping a coin: just because you've seen a streak of five heads doesn't change that the probability of the next flip is still 50:50.
  • BowgentleBowgentle Posts: 5,038 Chairperson of the Boards
    jamesh said:
    Yepyep said:
    Monsoon3 said:
    Considering that I've only pulled 4 bonus heroes in my last 194 latest legend or 25 CP stores, it doesn't matter who I bonus. I'll never get enough to cover either.
    Well, I understand but that condition is exactly what should be setting you up for a whole string of bonus drops...
    That's not how independent random numbers work.  It's like flipping a coin: just because you've seen a streak of five heads doesn't change that the probability of the next flip is still 50:50.
    It does in this game, though - Bonus Hero pulls are pre-determined, like 5* pulls.
    So, eventually that bad streak WILL even out.
    It migh take a few thousand pulls, though.
  • jameshjamesh Posts: 1,582 Chairperson of the Boards
    Bowgentle said:
    jamesh said:
    Yepyep said:
    Monsoon3 said:
    Considering that I've only pulled 4 bonus heroes in my last 194 latest legend or 25 CP stores, it doesn't matter who I bonus. I'll never get enough to cover either.
    Well, I understand but that condition is exactly what should be setting you up for a whole string of bonus drops...
    That's not how independent random numbers work.  It's like flipping a coin: just because you've seen a streak of five heads doesn't change that the probability of the next flip is still 50:50.
    It does in this game, though - Bonus Hero pulls are pre-determined, like 5* pulls.
    So, eventually that bad streak WILL even out.
    It migh take a few thousand pulls, though.

    It is using a PRNG, yes.  But the point of a good PRNG is to produce output that is indistinguishable from genuine random data (assuming you don't have access to the seed). If the PRNG was more likely to end a losing streak than genuine random data, then it would be a bad PRNG.

    With that said, the law of large numbers says that the more pulls you make, the more likely you will see a win. That is independent of what has come before though.

  • bluewolfbluewolf Posts: 4,349 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited October 2019
    The rewards in the PVE prior to a new character's release have determined one of the essentials for the last 18 releases.

    Any time you can find 3 Classic Essentials, the PVE prior rewarded a Classic character in placement.

    This is because their pattern (being followed for a very long time now, about since they ended Latest weighting) is to offer 3 Latests (the 3 most recent characters in tokens) in PVE, then offer 2 Classics, then repeat.  (There was a period of about a month early this year when they ONLY offered Classics.)

    They have, by the way, changed up the order they reward the Latest people in, and that doesn't always follow a set pattern.

    Aside:  The length of time a character is in tokens has no bearing on whether they are an ST essential.

    I will be more than happy to see Torch NOT be an essential, but the spreadsheet is suggesting to me that they will just follow business as usual and not try to do something different/nice for Anniversary.
  • helix72helix72 Posts: 402 Mover and Shaker
    @bluewolf -- would you share your spreadsheet? I'd love to see it.
  • Monsoon3Monsoon3 Posts: 22 Just Dropped In
    Bowgentle said:
    jamesh said:
    Yepyep said:
    Monsoon3 said:
    Considering that I've only pulled 4 bonus heroes in my last 194 latest legend or 25 CP stores, it doesn't matter who I bonus. I'll never get enough to cover either.
    Well, I understand but that condition is exactly what should be setting you up for a whole string of bonus drops...
    That's not how independent random numbers work.  It's like flipping a coin: just because you've seen a streak of five heads doesn't change that the probability of the next flip is still 50:50.
    It does in this game, though - Bonus Hero pulls are pre-determined, like 5* pulls.
    So, eventually that bad streak WILL even out.
    It migh take a few thousand pulls, though.
    I looked back at my pull tracking as well. I've been logging pulls going back to the end of January (just as Kitty was leaving latest l). A total of 13 BH rewards over 429 pulls. That 3.03% drop rate. Would really love for this to start averaging out.
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