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Worst luck or something else?

j3st3rij3st3ri Posts: 1 Just Dropped In
So far I've opened 4 x Premium pack bundles from different sets. That's 100 cards with random rarity. (+ 4 bonus rare cards)

None of those 100 was a rare?!?

If the percentage shown on a set says that there's 73.77% possibility to get at least one rare card, shouldn't the chances be on my favor to get at least one?

This is total tinykitty and I'm glad that I haven't spent any money on this crapshoot.

Comments

  • LordDorwinLordDorwin Posts: 63 Match Maker
    That is bad luck indeed, but not impossible.

    But such are the laws of probability - provided that the randomisation is accurate, you ought to get at least one rare card per hundred drawn provided you draw very many cards (I am talking about several thousand or more at least!).  You are not guaranteed a rare on a draw of 100, even though this outcome is quite likely.

    This is called the law of large numbers, and it is the reason that short runs of good or bad luck can occur in completely fair games of chance.

    I have had an episode of outrageously good luck - on a fifteen card pull I got one mythic rare and three rare cards.  If we were both pulling on the same card set, this proves nothing except that the randomisation is probably working properly.

    It is also possible, but extremely improbable, to get 100/100 rare cards from a draw similar to yours - the RNG has no memory.  (This is extremely improbable but not impossible - also, that person would probably be bragging all over about his "Midas touch", so I don't think this has happened yet.)

    So yeah, runs of luck happen and it seems that you were on the receiving end of a bad one.

    Now if ten other guys had come in here and complained about the same problem, (ie. no rare in 1000 cards), then I'd start to suspect the RNG or selection set of being faulty.

    The laws of probability are not cheerful reading, but that is how things work - you can't beat the house if you play for a long time, and it's generally a bad idea to try and beat it.

    All I can say is, "I hope that fortune favours you next time!"
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