Documentation of drop rates - where is it??

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Comments

  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Tremayne said:

    @Volrak - I’m a bit unsure if you are being sarcastic, but I have always assumed that every dropped card is logged on server-side. Otherwise wouldn’t the server be susceptible to manipulation?

    if that data exists, then D3/Oktagon could make a report every month that showed the actual cards dropped per set. Plus they would be able to identify any problems like that issue they had with “Plague wind” in the pink-package.
    No, I'm not being sarcastic.  My point is that if I was inclined to believe that the published drop rates were dodgy, I might be equally inclined to believe that the numbers in such a report were dodgy.  A report like that could serve as some level of evidence which might be seen as more or less significant by different people (and maybe that's all you're really after), but in an absolute sense I think it could not prove anything.
  • Tremayne
    Tremayne Posts: 1,656 Chairperson of the Boards
    I think that transparency is good!
    i think D3/Octagon is capable of making mistake - see previous post.
    D3/Octagon could give transparency if they made a site with actual drops. They could also ensure errors were caught.

    But I guess that is not what is at stake here, it is probably something to do with money/cash flow. The silence on this topic from D3 is deafening. 🙈🙉🙊
  • Stalker
    Stalker Posts: 141 Tile Toppler
    Konami quit console games to focus on the highly profitable pachinko machine and mobile gaming business for a reason. RNG is the business model. It reinforces the hard buys in the store to give you a guarantee vs pure luck. I don’t know how they could give solid pull numbers when it seems each person would have different circumstances eg, how many packs they chose to open vs others? Maybe be more transparent on each cards actual chance or pull rate vs all pulls?
  • Tremayne
    Tremayne Posts: 1,656 Chairperson of the Boards
    @octal9 - not sure I understand your comment.
    I would imagine that Volraks analysis tried to collect the drop rates, so that would mean that it tracked the server side RNG, wouldn’t it?

    I do consider recall bias, but I do not think that it affects the request for transparency.
  • Kinesia
    Kinesia Posts: 1,621 Chairperson of the Boards
    Tremayne said:
    @octal9 - not sure I understand your comment.
    I would imagine that Volraks analysis tried to collect the drop rates, so that would mean that it tracked the server side RNG, wouldn’t it?

    I do consider recall bias, but I do not think that it affects the request for transparency.
    Because of the way RNG works the _results_ of an RNG and how it is programmed can potentially look different.

    So even though it's really really unlikely something programmed with the current correct drop rates could potentially give someone 50% common cards and 50% masterpieces and nothing inbetween. The results do NOT provide proof that the system is rigged because the "random" part means that totally crazy things are still possible.


  • Tremayne
    Tremayne Posts: 1,656 Chairperson of the Boards
    The drop rates on Ixalan was changed with version 2.9
    It was approx. 7.3 for a mythic in a single booster
    in version 2.9 it is 6.09 for the same booster.
    this makes it difficult for Octagon to deliver documentation, but the players have to check the specified drop rates every time they pull a booster.
  • Mrninjaxl
    Mrninjaxl Posts: 16 Just Dropped In
    I've opened several packs of m19 and I have gotten the exact same mythic "mistcaller" 5X 
    Yeah you read that right... the same mythic five times now.. what kind odds are those.... i only have 2 mythics from the m19 set but when I do pull one its always mistcaller. 
  • Froggy
    Froggy Posts: 511 Critical Contributor
    And IXL boosters no longer contain masterpieces - again...

    Drop rates are reported as... 0%.
  • Tremayne
    Tremayne Posts: 1,656 Chairperson of the Boards
    Amonketh prize in ToA have a mythic drop rate of 5.56%

    Among the lowest rates I can remember in recent time.

    Clearly, the drop rates are changed by D3/Octagon on individual sets. I acknowledge that this is necessary. But it follows that without documentation, errors will go unnoticed to detriment to all - both players and D3/Octagon.
  • Luiz_Nas
    Luiz_Nas Posts: 12 Just Dropped In
    I just got Multani, a Dominaria Mythic, on the free booster. It would de incredible if it wasn't for the 3rd time.
    The three last mythic I got from the free booster was Multani.
    The chance to get a mythic in the free booster is 0,30%, from a list of 131 cards. From those 131 cards I have 44, 1/3 of the total.
    To me, some Mythics are more "Mythics" than others
  • Tremayne
    Tremayne Posts: 1,656 Chairperson of the Boards
    I think that it is very confusing that there is so big a difference between the drop rates of the sets available in the vault, that it is borderline suspect.

    (Mythic drop rate in single booster)
    origins - 5.92%
    M19 - 6.82%
    RIX - 6.61%
    Ixalan - 6.09%
    Kaladesh - 4.43%

    and all cost the 60 crystals, expect M19 at 80 crystals.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    The current spread of drop rates is actually relatively tight - published mythic drop rates per 5-card booster have been as low as 2.8% (XLN 2.4-2.6) and as high as 14.0% (RIX 2.8.1).

    The reason behind these differences can certainly be confusing, because it's never been explained.  The existence of the differences is not confusing if one looks at the stated drop rates given, as you have, though I'm sure many players don't.

    As for what's suspect - I certainly suspect that D3 have built in fine-grained control over drop rates, and can and do exercise that control.  I also suspect they have their reasons for doing that, and they are comfortable keeping those reasons to themselves (this has been asked about in monthly Q&As without answer).
  • Tremayne
    Tremayne Posts: 1,656 Chairperson of the Boards
    I did a check on the chances of getting a mythic on the current sets in the vault.

    (Mythic drop rate in single booster)
    origins - 5.92%
    M19 - 6.82%
    Ixalan - 6.32%
    BFZ - 5.82%

    all cost the 60 crystals, expect M19 at 80 crystals.

    Those that were also in the vault 2-3 weeks ago are almost unchanged.

    However Ixalan has increased the percentage of dropping a Mythic from 6.09% to 6.32%
    Does this mean that D3/Octagon has made a conscious change, which I certainly applaud or is it sign of an error?

    It does not seem that any Ixalan cards are missing (both MP and Mythic seems to the correct number), but I seem to recall Brigby stating that the difference between the drop rates in individual sets were related to the number of cards. (Though I do not think that has been proven by anyone), so I wonder is there a problem like the Elite collection that would not drop a particular MP.

    How can we determine if a problem with a specific card(s) are there?
  • fiirst
    fiirst Posts: 438 Mover and Shaker
    octal9 said:
    @Tremayne

    to be 100% clear: that was an analysis of the client-side RNG. The server-side RNG (which is responsible for generating your card drops) may very well be flawed. We have some data on that which Volrak has been collecting.

    There's a number of theories about time of day and other factors affecting a user's specific duplicate rate, but to my knowledge we don't have anything statistically significant because of the nature of collecting that sort of data.

    Anecdotally, try pulling at a different time of day and see if it helps you. I find that 3:15PM EST worked well for me in the past. YMMV, anecdotal evidence, a million other disclaimers here.

    Always remember: recall bias is a thing, and it's a very powerful effect.
    this happened with me too, my lucky ime was shifted. and i am still unable to find it out.
  • GrizzoMtGPQ
    GrizzoMtGPQ Posts: 776 Critical Contributor
    Drop rates change frequently. We've noticed at least a dozen times that rates have changed for the worse and better.
  • Imbrium
    Imbrium Posts: 30 Just Dropped In
    @GrizzoMtGPQ
    I agree that drop rates change frequently.  I didn't find Amonkhet or Hours drop rates any good.  Ixalan universally sucked, although it did improve. 
    Overall I found RIX extremely generous after that, and Dom too.  I only have 4 more Mythics to get the set - I have been really lucky in that set. 
    M19 I have found really bad.  So bad that I haven't got anything new for a long time.  I don't buy any boosters because my luck has been so bad... then I don't get any new cards, cycle of never ending doom.  I fully expect to Booster Craft anything I actually want.
    I hope we have better general access to Ravnica after it has been launched to help, but that's another thread...  Essentially, anecdotally, drop rates definitely vary and some I have really good luck in, others are a slow slog uphill.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    GrizzoMtGPQ said:
    Drop rates change frequently. We've noticed at least a dozen times that rates have changed for the worse and better.
    Yep.  Close to 30 changes in fact
  • Tremayne
    Tremayne Posts: 1,656 Chairperson of the Boards
    Now GRN has hit I did a check on the chances of getting a mythic on the current sets in the vault.

    (Mythic drop rate in single booster)
    GRN - 6.96%
    origins - 5.92%
    DOM - 7.57%
    M19 - 6.82%
    RIX - 6.61%
    AKH - 5.56%
    Kaladesh - 4.43%

    all cost the 60 crystals, expect GRN at 80 crystals.

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