M19 Premium Pack diminishing returns

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Comments

  • babar3355
    babar3355 Posts: 1,128 Chairperson of the Boards
    At this point I don't have any complaints with the ability to target and even collect the cards. It can be done with enough time, money, skill or some combination.

    However, I tend to agree that crafting orbs provide a pretty lousy pity timer.  If you open 10 PPs and get no mythics and no dupe rares, you will have enough orbs for about 1 legacy mythic. (Assuming 60 orbs per pack).  Sure, you can go craft an old mythic, but that doesn't make you feel any better when your coalition mate just received 6 new mythics a MP, and enough dupes to craft 2-3 legacy mythics in their 10 packs. 

    That said, I probably won't fight for a pity timer, because I think they have been generous enough at this point as I stated earlier.
  • FindingHeart8
    FindingHeart8 Posts: 2,731 Chairperson of the Boards

    I got about halfway through your novella before my coffee wore off, so please excuse if I make a point you've already addressed ;)

    I get what you're saying and am definitely on board with helping the new players, it's just a question of how to go about it.  A don't quite follow how exactly you'd want the pity timer to work, how long before that free mythic kicks in?

    I think new players should get like 1000 yellow crystals starting off, but be forced to use 200 of it to buy multiple planeswalkers (Origins for 50 a piece right?  Ideally upgrade their mana gains to +2. +3. +2).  Then force them to spend 300 on an Origins PP.  Then they'll have 500 crystals to buy other packs or (if they save a bit more), a dual PW, as well as be guaranteed to have enough cards to start their journey.

    They aren't going to be able to compete with us for a while, but that's the nature of this game.  You can't start out a top player, gotta work your way up.

  • Sarahschmara
    Sarahschmara Posts: 554 Critical Contributor
    Good points and well written @span_argoman
  • babar3355
    babar3355 Posts: 1,128 Chairperson of the Boards
    I agree with you @span_argoman, perhaps I will be willing to fight in a few months.  I just want to give them a little "drop rate" peace after the change to elite packs.

    But your point is well stated.  I spent $70 on crystals when they were on sale.  After blowing through 1/2 of them, I had 0 new cards to show for it and not sufficiently more orbs.  I just decided to quit spending them because it was so painful to buy them and have nothing to show for it.  If I knew that I was guaranteed to get a mythic every 20-30 packs, at least I would know there is light at the end of a depressing tunnel (even if it is a dupe).  

    In other words, like my assessment of "gotta catch 'em all" mentality of allowing us to collect complete sets driving more revenue (although I know you disagree), perhaps players would be more willing to spend on something with more assurance of having value (ie crystals)

    ,
  • freegenz
    freegenz Posts: 8 Just Dropped In
    span_argoman said:

    I don't disagree that having the possibility to complete sets will drive revenue. I disagree that having the ability to complete sets for free will drive revenue.

    Increasing the value of buyable currency should foreseeably increase revenue. And that's what the pity timer ideas will do.
    The more I think about it, the more I think the currency is simply too expensive for what it allows to buy, i.e. it doesn't have enough value. This would also mean that revenue is not maximized, since by increasing value (or decreasing price) they could possibly sell a lot more currency, for a higher total revenue.

    But I'm no economist... I'm just a player who won't dish out hundreds of dollars to quite possibly not get any mythics. I'm kind of risk averse like that. Maybe I'm just not the target audience for their pricing scheme. 
  • FindingHeart8
    FindingHeart8 Posts: 2,731 Chairperson of the Boards
    span_argoman said:
    FindingHeart8 said:

    I got about halfway through your novella before my coffee wore off, so please excuse if I make a point you've already addressed ;)

    I get what you're saying and am definitely on board with helping the new players, it's just a question of how to go about it.  A don't quite follow how exactly you'd want the pity timer to work, how long before that free mythic kicks in?

    I think new players should get like 1000 yellow crystals starting off, but be forced to use 200 of it to buy multiple planeswalkers (Origins for 50 a piece right?  Ideally upgrade their mana gains to +2. +3. +2).  Then force them to spend 300 on an Origins PP.  Then they'll have 500 crystals to buy other packs or (if they save a bit more), a dual PW, as well as be guaranteed to have enough cards to start their journey.

    They aren't going to be able to compete with us for a while, but that's the nature of this game.  You can't start out a top player, gotta work your way up.

    Heya @FindingHeart8, no worries. It's always good to clarify the points.

    For how the pity timer works, when it kicks in depends on how much of the long tail they decide to cut off. Let's use M19 drop rates so we can use actual figures instead of hypothetical. And let's use packs instead of PPs so that event packs can contribute to the timer too.

    The Mythic drop rate for M19 is 1.40% per card. This puts the median (when the chance of getting 1 or more Mythics is 50% ie. 50% of people get this result or better/worse) for opening at least 1 Mythic from M19 packs at 10 packs (2 PPs).

    If they decided to cut off the unluckiest 10th percentile (10% chance to still be having no Mythics), the pity timer would kick in after 33 packs (6.6 PPs). If they decide to cut off the unluckiest 5th percentile, the pity timer would kick in after 43 packs (8.6 PPs). The unluckiest 1% would be after 66 packs (11.1 PPs). I have no answer for the ideal percentile to shave off.

    The cut-off would also vary depending whether the consolation is a Mythic or Orbs. For a simple guaranteed Mythic after Z number of packs, the cut-off would have to come sooner since a Mythic has a fixed value of either a new card or 500/750 Orbs.

    On the other hand, the Orb pool concept would allow the developers to create a graduated scale of consolation prizes for people as they continue down an unlucky streak. It would also require more mathematical rigour though and hence may not be as popular an option.

    I do think it would be more robust though, being able to cater for the drop rate changes that have happened and the changes in value of a pack when it moves from the bonus Orbs stage to the normal Orbs value for dupes.

    As for new players and the Origins planeswalkers, I think the Origins planeswalkers should have their Crystal cost reverted to 10 Crystals. There is no good justification for the increase in cost to 50 Crystals. I'm all ears if they are willing to explain this change, but I see no good reason at all. The Origins planeswalkers are crucial to enabling new players to experience playing with the different colours early on. Increasing their price just delays their ability to experience the game more fully.

    As to the point about them not going to be able to instantly be top players, that's not relevant. It's whether newer players even have the means to experience each set as it was designed, whether they are given the ability to build cohesive decks.

    We take for granted that we can build a deck with decent synergies because we have a higher percentage of the available cards. Try building decks for your newer players with their collection and you'll realise how many options are closed off to them because they are missing so many key cards that they can't even build a deck for any of the main archetypes. And by newer I'm still counting players who have been playing this game for up to a year. That's how long it can take.

    It isn't just about the Mythics. Sure there are certain Mythics like Etali, Darigaaz and Muldrotha which open up entire archetypes on their own. But the Orb pool idea would allow them to allocate the Orbs they receive to craft cards from whichever rarity they want to target.

    babar3355 said:
    I agree with you @span_argoman, perhaps I will be willing to fight in a few months.  I just want to give them a little "drop rate" peace after the change to elite packs.

    But your point is well stated.  I spent $70 on crystals when they were on sale.  After blowing through 1/2 of them, I had 0 new cards to show for it and not sufficiently more orbs.  I just decided to quit spending them because it was so painful to buy them and have nothing to show for it.  If I knew that I was guaranteed to get a mythic every 20-30 packs, at least I would know there is light at the end of a depressing tunnel (even if it is a dupe).  

    In other words, like my assessment of "gotta catch 'em all" mentality of allowing us to collect complete sets driving more revenue (although I know you disagree), perhaps players would be more willing to spend on something with more assurance of having value (ie crystals)
    I don't disagree that having the possibility to complete sets will drive revenue. I disagree that having the ability to complete sets for free will drive revenue.

    Increasing the value of buyable currency should foreseeably increase revenue. And that's what the pity timer ideas will do.
    Ah I see, thanks for taking the time to explain it.  I have seen pity timer models in other games similar to what you're describing, they work pretty well from what I recall.

    Yeah the high number of crystals I suggested gifted to a player when they first join the game was to help cover the cost of the Origins walkers.  I agree that they should either be reduced to 10 crystal cost or (like I said above), if they're going to keep the price as-is...then they should at least boost their already boosted mana gains an additional +1 (+1, +3, +1 becomes +2, +4, +2).

    1000 crystals at game start is plenty to help a player jump into the fray.  With ~500 forced to spend on the basics so a new player can't accidentally tinykitty themselves over by doing something like sticking with Nissa only and then getting almost nothing but nongreen cards from all the packs they purchase).

    Beginners (at least back when I started playing) were supposed to start with story mode and work their way up to events.  Now, times may have changed a bit since storymode has been blatantly neglected, but there's still enough crystals there to give a new player a solid arsenal to compete in events and still see rewards.
  • Buizel
    Buizel Posts: 50 Match Maker
    Pity timers would not be such a big problem if the rarity rates weren't garbage to begin with. 300 crystals (average of $15.00) only have 73% odds of giving a single rare. There's a reason these feel awful and we aren't happy. It's obvious D3 doesn't want to change pricing or rarities, so players are trying to come up with alternative methods to make spending money in this game feel just a little less awful.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Buizel said:
    Pity timers would not be such a big problem if the rarity rates weren't garbage to begin with. 300 crystals (average of $15.00) only have 73% odds of giving a single rare. There's a reason these feel awful and we aren't happy. It's obvious D3 doesn't want to change pricing or rarities, so players are trying to come up with alternative methods to make spending money in this game feel just a little less awful.
    I think drop rates per dollar spent has always been awful.  This is completely subjective though, since different people have different ideas of value for money.

    On the other hand, overall, the spending power of in-game-currency is somewhat objective, because you can assess spending power using typical earning rates.  Drop rates using in-game currency are currently the best they've ever been.  It's true that if they were higher, a "most unlucky group", however you want to define it, would be smaller.  But that group would then find themselves even further behind the "most lucky" and typical groups.
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0 Just Dropped In
    edited August 2018
    I think a pity timer would be cool. 

    I dont remember what it was but i recall it was around the time heart of kiran was on sale (in my beginning days) spending some 50? 60? Dollars for the crystals to buy a PP pack or two (Maybe 3). I dont even remember what i got honestly. But the amount i paid vs the reward was SO low.. almost non-existent, I felt like i hit rock bottom - it was the worst experience/investment i ever made. I opened it together with a friend... that friend told me to quit the game and uninstalled his game. If it wasnt for that extremely sour experience, i do believe i would spend more in game. But i mean it has to be worth it; it shouldn't be gut wretching experience
  • Chocostove
    Chocostove Posts: 19 Just Dropped In
    I often wonder If the Devs have ever heard the saying "Perception is reality."

    As a paper player first and MTGPQ second, I'll never understand the pricing structure. 
    Paper Planeswalker, regardless of colors $15.99 and that with a booster pack(used to be two!)
    MTGPQ Mono PW $24.99 with 3 boosters and some in game currency. Want a 2 color PW? Add $15!

    The Pricing for everything in this game is 10-15% overpriced as is and then when you factor in the drop rates, it feels even worse. Key word there is "feel"
    Perception is Reality...



  • Gideon
    Gideon Posts: 356 Mover and Shaker
    Good thing they have a mercy rule like most cards game apps.  Wait... what they don’t ? 
  • Buizel
    Buizel Posts: 50 Match Maker
    edited August 2018
    jimpark said:
    I think a pity timer would be cool. 

    I dont remember what it was but i recall it was around the time heart of kiran was on sale (in my beginning days) spending some 50? 60? Dollars for the crystals to buy a PP pack or two (Maybe 3). I dont even remember what i got honestly. But the amount i paid vs the reward was SO low.. almost non-existent, I felt like i hit rock bottom - it was the worst experience/investment i ever made. I opened it together with a friend... that friend told me to quit the game and uninstalled his game. If it wasnt for that extremely sour experience, i do believe i would spend more in game. But i mean it has to be worth it; it shouldn't be gut wretching experience
    This is all too familiar. For the same price you could've gotten a brand new AAA game, almost 50 packs in another online TCG, or a heavy handful of cosmetics in any other micro-transaction based game.

    But instead you got almost nothing at all for that purchase. Feels bad to the extreme for this game, and there's no light in sight. 
  • span_argoman
    span_argoman Posts: 751 Critical Contributor
    Economies of scale is a significant thing. Paper MTG sells in the millions whereas MtGPQ only has an estimated player base in the low 5 digits.

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