crackninja said: The big takeaway here is that this wasn't a rage quit, an rng is the worst, etc., it was just apathy. The way the 5* game is these days, it's just very slow progress no matter which path you take, and after a few years of grinding away, it's not surprising to see it takes its toll.
I've been keeping a log of my LT draws since the end of February in 2016 when someone decided to collect statistical data on them. I liked the idea of a log, since it gives data that can be looked at in a lot more ways than just tracking the raw numbers. I just did a scan of my log, and I can see that at least 12 times I went over 20 draws without drawing a 5*, including 5 times I went 28 draws or more without drawing a purple. My longest bad streak was 51, though I'll hasten to add this was a pretty serious outlier as the three below it were two 32s and a 31. Worse, this bulk of the worst streak were "Alias Investigations" tokens - I liked JJ, I wanted more GG (I've had him at six covers,) and I didn't mind more BP champ levels. I drew one JJ and BP early on, then came on that streak. I went in hoping to get 2-3 of each, and ended up with just 2. I was livid for several days - I did not get a single Goblin.
The flip side of that is that my overall % of 5* since the change in odds is actually 14.97%. That's actually slightly high as it includes 21 of the old Event tokens with one 5* at 10% -- according to my extrapolation I "should" have drawn 334.7 5* and have drawn 337. That number does fluctuate - I've been as much as 7 or 8 on either side of that equation.
Back around to the negative - I will definitely say my darkest thoughts are always in those streaks. They feel terrible, like I'm never going to see a 5* again and I'm going to be hopelessly left behind by the meta. The only beacon of light in these streaks is the fact that I can see my raw numbers and I intellectually know that these things happen and are in the long run balanced out. To be honest, this is exactly why I keep track of these things -- so I have proof that it's just bad luck and I'm not being screwed overall. Or, if I actually am being screwed, I have evidence.
I really do think they should put in a "streak breaker" somewhere between 10-15 4* pulls. They pre-generate the numbers, so I'm sure they can do this. It will slightly adjust the odds of the 5*s, but I suspect it won't be substantial enough to really impact the game negatively. Despite the fact that the game is, overall, relatively fair, the perception of unfairness can get very, very strong.
Take this for what it's worth. I enjoy this game and think it delivers a good experience, but even though the perception of unfairness is probably quite a bit stronger than it really is, they should address it anyway.
mexus said: Hi all, here I am as a reminder of that I am still watching you. This is also why I quit back in February. Depressed over not being able to cover my 5* heroes despite playing way too much and paying way too much - just took out its right. Soon half a year MPQ sober.
Magic said: mexus said: Hi all, here I am as a reminder of that I am still watching you. This is also why I quit back in February. Depressed over not being able to cover my 5* heroes despite playing way too much and paying way too much - just took out its right. Soon half a year MPQ sober. Lurking at the MPQ forum is kind of like staying sober but an occasional beer won't hurt me approach
nigelregal said: The problem with bad runs is that it is the worst with these special vaults. Regular latest legends are pre determined so if you get a large patch without 5* eventually you will get more 5* to balance out. With a special vault you just pull whatever CP you have and if you get unlucky you are just screwed and have no way to save up more CP to try again later. It's a much bigger gamble than waiting for the new character to join Latest Legends. I track my pulls and have had some 50+ only 4* pulls but i've had like 7 or 8 5* in a row. In the end it balances out but you need larger and larger hoards to ensure you get covered well.
GrimSkald said: I've been keeping a log of my LT draws since the end of February in 2016 when someone decided to collect statistical data on them. I liked the idea of a log, since it gives data that can be looked at in a lot more ways than just tracking the raw numbers. I just did a scan of my log, and I can see that at least 12 times I went over 20 draws without drawing a 5*, including 5 times I went 28 draws or more without drawing a purple. My longest bad streak was 51, though I'll hasten to add this was a pretty serious outlier as the three below it were two 32s and a 31. Worse, this bulk of the worst streak were "Alias Investigations" tokens - I liked JJ, I wanted more GG (I've had him at six covers,) and I didn't mind more BP champ levels. I drew one JJ and BP early on, then came on that streak. I went in hoping to get 2-3 of each, and ended up with just 2. I was livid for several days - I did not get a single Goblin.The flip side of that is that my overall % of 5* since the change in odds is actually 14.97%. That's actually slightly high as it includes 21 of the old Event tokens with one 5* at 10% -- according to my extrapolation I "should" have drawn 334.7 5* and have drawn 337. That number does fluctuate - I've been as much as 7 or 8 on either side of that equation.Back around to the negative - I will definitely say my darkest thoughts are always in those streaks. They feel terrible, like I'm never going to see a 5* again and I'm going to be hopelessly left behind by the meta. The only beacon of light in these streaks is the fact that I can see my raw numbers and I intellectually know that these things happen and are in the long run balanced out. To be honest, this is exactly why I keep track of these things -- so I have proof that it's just bad luck and I'm not being screwed overall. Or, if I actually am being screwed, I have evidence.I really do think they should put in a "streak breaker" somewhere between 10-15 4* pulls. They pre-generate the numbers, so I'm sure they can do this. It will slightly adjust the odds of the 5*s, but I suspect it won't be substantial enough to really impact the game negatively. Despite the fact that the game is, overall, relatively fair, the perception of unfairness can get very, very strong.Take this for what it's worth. I enjoy this game and think it delivers a good experience, but even though the perception of unfairness is probably quite a bit stronger than it really is, they should address it anyway. GrimSkald said: I've been keeping a log of my LT draws since the end of February in 2016 when someone decided to collect statistical data on them. I liked the idea of a log, since it gives data that can be looked at in a lot more ways than just tracking the raw numbers. I just did a scan of my log, and I can see that at least 12 times I went over 20 draws without drawing a 5*, including 5 times I went 28 draws or more without drawing a purple. My longest bad streak was 51, though I'll hasten to add this was a pretty serious outlier as the three below it were two 32s and a 31. Worse, this bulk of the worst streak were "Alias Investigations" tokens - I liked JJ, I wanted more GG (I've had him at six covers,) and I didn't mind more BP champ levels. I drew one JJ and BP early on, then came on that streak. I went in hoping to get 2-3 of each, and ended up with just 2. I was livid for several days - I did not get a single Goblin.The flip side of that is that my overall % of 5* since the change in odds is actually 14.97%. That's actually slightly high as it includes 21 of the old Event tokens with one 5* at 10% -- according to my extrapolation I "should" have drawn 334.7 5* and have drawn 337. That number does fluctuate - I've been as much as 7 or 8 on either side of that equation.Back around to the negative - I will definitely say my darkest thoughts are always in those streaks. They feel terrible, like I'm never going to see a 5* again and I'm going to be hopelessly left behind by the meta. The only beacon of light in these streaks is the fact that I can see my raw numbers and I intellectually know that these things happen and are in the long run balanced out. To be honest, this is exactly why I keep track of these things -- so I have proof that it's just bad luck and I'm not being screwed overall. Or, if I actually am being screwed, I have evidence.I really do think they should put in a "streak breaker" somewhere between 10-15 4* pulls. They pre-generate the numbers, so I'm sure they can do this. It will slightly adjust the odds of the 5*s, but I suspect it won't be substantial enough to really impact the game negatively. Despite the fact that the game is, overall, relatively fair, the perception of unfairness can get very, very strong.Take this for what it's worth. I enjoy this game and think it delivers a good experience, but even though the perception of unfairness is probably quite a bit stronger than it really is, they should address it anyway.
GrimSkald said: I've been keeping a log of my LT draws since the end of February in 2016 when someone decided to collect statistical data on them. I liked the idea of a log, since it gives data that can be looked at in a lot more ways than just tracking the raw numbers. I just did a scan of my log, and I can see that at least 12 times I went over 20 draws without drawing a 5*, including 5 times I went 28 draws or more without drawing a purple. My longest bad streak was 51, though I'll hasten to add this was a pretty serious outlier as the three below it were two 32s and a 31. Worse, this bulk of the worst streak were "Alias Investigations" tokens - I liked JJ, I wanted more GG (I've had him at six covers,) and I didn't mind more BP champ levels. I drew one JJ and BP early on, then came on that streak. I went in hoping to get 2-3 of each, and ended up with just 2. I was livid for several days - I did not get a single Goblin.The flip side of that is that my overall % of 5* since the change in odds is actually 14.97%. That's actually slightly high as it includes 21 of the old Event tokens with one 5* at 10% -- according to my extrapolation I "should" have drawn 334.7 5* and have drawn 337. That number does fluctuate - I've been as much as 7 or 8 on either side of that equation.Back around to the negative - I will definitely say my darkest thoughts are always in those streaks. They feel terrible, like I'm never going to see a 5* again and I'm going to be hopelessly left behind by the meta. The only beacon of light in these streaks is the fact that I can see my raw numbers and I intellectually know that these things happen and are in the long run balanced out. To be honest, this is exactly why I keep track of these things -- so I have proof that it's just bad luck and I'm not being screwed overall. Or, if I actually am being screwed, I have evidence.I really do think they should put in a "streak breaker" somewhere between 10-15 4* pulls. They pre-generate the numbers, so I'm sure they can do this. It will slightly adjust the odds of the 5*s, but I suspect it won't be substantial enough to really impact the game negatively. Despite the fact that the game is, overall, relatively fair, the perception of unfairness can get very, very strong.Take this for what it's worth. I enjoy this game and think it delivers a good experience, but even though the perception of unfairness is probably quite a bit stronger than it really is, they should address it anyway.