What are these Bonus Heroes?

CaptainFreaky
CaptainFreaky Posts: 451 Mover and Shaker
in MPQ General Discussion
I've opened over 70 tokens in the last two days, between Elite (35+), Heroic (7+), and Legends (30+) and have not received a single Bonus Hero.

I mean I know the odds are kinda ****, but really. is this just another example of Demi really needing to implement a streak buster or am I just mildly unlucky?

Comments

  • Dormammu
    Dormammu Posts: 3,531 Chairperson of the Boards
    That's not unusual, nor that many pulls. The bonus heroes will come.
  • BoyWonder1914
    BoyWonder1914 Posts: 884 Critical Contributor
    I'd say you're just mildly unlucky for the time being. It's been a little while since I got my last 4* BH as well, don't even remember. BUT, I got 2 4-stars on back-to-back Heroic tokens yesterday, so fortune was smiling down somewhere. 
  • JackTenrec
    JackTenrec Posts: 808 Critical Contributor
    I don't hoard, so I have no idea how many pulls are in my sample size (I typically PvE to progession + daily DDQ + some PvP dabbling), but I get maybe a couple of 3* every week, maybe a 4* every month or two.  I've gotten one 5* ever.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    You are mildly unlucky. I get about two to three 3* bonus heroes on average per week. The last time I got a bonus hero was about two to three days ago.
  • moss04
    moss04 Posts: 147 Tile Toppler
    edited July 2018
    After 5680 pulls, I still have yet to ever in that entire time reach the "expected" return for Bonus Heroes.  When can I expect for it to either even out or give me a wild positive run?
    The system is ridiculously broken.

    //Removed Profanity -Brigby
  • mega ghost
    mega ghost Posts: 1,156 Chairperson of the Boards
    I've had a bonus hero drought for months, even with 3*s. I do wish they forced their stated odds as so many others have suggested, and as so many other games do to keep their players happy.
  • Hadronic
    Hadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
    edited July 2018
    moss04 said:
    After 5680 pulls, I still have yet to ever in that entire time reach the "expected" return for Bonus Heroes.  When can I expect for it to either even out or give me a wild positive run?
    The system is ridiculously broken.

    //Removed Profanity -Brigby
    No guarantee you will ever go above expected. I bet you are within 1 or 2 standard deviations though.
  • Jarvind
    Jarvind Posts: 1,684 Chairperson of the Boards
    I honestly forget they're even a thing until I get one. Then it's like oh hay!

    I will say that I really enjoy that any 3* from a Standard gets a guaranteed bonus hero. I've definitely gotten loads of extra covers that way.
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,102 Chairperson of the Boards
    It's streaky. I opened  31 Elites and 22 Heroics on Sunday, got loads of 3* and even a 4* but zero bonus heroes. Othertimes it has literally rained bonus heroes - I remember covering 3* Spidey from scratch inside a week thanks mostly to bonus heroes.

    They'll be back at some point.
  • Alfje17
    Alfje17 Posts: 3,762 Chairperson of the Boards
    Some stats since I started tracking:
    opened 2787 Elites, got 717 3* + 149 BH (20%)
    opened 553 LT, got 452 4* + 24 BH (5%) and 101 5* + 3 BH (3%)

    Streaks happen: just went 180 standards without a 3*, then got 2 in a row.
  • StevO-J
    StevO-J Posts: 751 Critical Contributor
    As someone who recently had a streak of (at least) 115 Classic LTs without a single BH cover I sympathise with you... When this happens it is demoralising to say the least. I tried to finish off my 2/5/5 Jubilee, and had to open 11 more 10-packs to finally get a few 4* BH covers, 3rd 4* BH was finally a yellow cover.

    The LT streak is still running... I don't feel tempted to open any of my LTs any time soon. Already got 1 cover for 5* Wasp from my lvl. 289 Ant-Man, so that hoard can grow for a little while longer. 
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    If I did not remember wrongly, the chance of getting BH in LT or Classics for 4* is 4.25% and 0.75% for 5*. 

    As for Heroics, it's ~4% for 3* and ~1% for 4*. 

  • Dragon_Nexus
    Dragon_Nexus Posts: 3,701 Chairperson of the Boards
    Try having a 5/2/4 Black Panther and pulling four yellows in a row, all from bonus heroes and then talk about unlucky =(
  • smkspy
    smkspy Posts: 2,024 Chairperson of the Boards
    This thread is why I only look at BH as a band-aid to actually working towards specific characters or building them up fast once champed.

    They really need a streak breaker to instill confidence that the feature works in your favor.
  • Eddiemon
    Eddiemon Posts: 1,470 Chairperson of the Boards
    smkspy said:
    This thread is why I only look at BH as a band-aid to actually working towards specific characters or building them up fast once champed.

    They really need a streak breaker to instill confidence that the feature works in your favor.
    How can the feature not work in your favour? Even if you never hit the expected returns, it’s still extra covers.


  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    I suppose he's looking at a guaranteed bonus hero within a certain number of pulls. Since bonus hero is 5% or 1:20, he wants at least 1 bonus hero for a maximum of 20 pulls. He don't want to get bonus hero after the 25th or 30th pull.
  • Jaedenkaal
    Jaedenkaal Posts: 3,357 Chairperson of the Boards
    smkspy said:
    This thread is why I only look at BH as a band-aid to actually working towards specific characters or building them up fast once champed.
    That's... exactly what it's for? 

    smkspy said:

    They really need a streak breaker to instill confidence that the feature works in your favor.
    Well they don't really need one. It would be nice, sure, considering how the human brain has a really hard time understanding how rare a 5% chance is. Adding a 1 in 20 streak-breaker would actually increase the overall odds above 5%, so if they ever do this, fully expect them to lower the actual rate in addition. 
  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,189 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited July 2018
    Jaedenkaal said:
    Well they don't really need one. It would be nice, sure, considering how the human brain has a really hard time understanding how rare a 5% chance is. Adding a 1 in 20 streak-breaker would actually increase the overall odds above 5%, so if they ever do this, fully expect them to lower the actual rate in addition. 
    Actually it would be nice if everyone got EXACTLY 5% bonus heroes in each tier (3, 4, 5*) so that at least one thing in the game wasn't subject to bad distribution over large numbers as Alfje17 showed with his personal stats.

    It would be easy to implement. Just randomize 20 numbers (1-20) with a 1 being a bonus hero and assign those to the next 20 characters in each tier (3*, 4*, 5*)  regardless of which token type the tier comes from. Once all 20 are used (ie 20 characters in a tier), randomize them again. At MOST you would go 38 pulls between a bonus hero but after 20 pulls you'd have 1, after 40 you'd have 2, after 60 you'd have 3 and so on. Simple and fair.

    KGB
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    For some players with lucky streak, they might not like it?

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