increased 4* odds!

jredd
jredd Posts: 1,387 Chairperson of the Boards
in MPQ General Discussion
who's getting more 4*s !!???!!!!


yeah, me neither. 

Comments

  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    To answer your question, I did get more than usual.

    It's not like the dev said they are going to increase the rate of getting 4-star from non-Legendary Token using a ratio of 1:3 or 1:4. If you are talking about Heroic Tokens, the devs didn't say they are going to increase the rate. The rate still stays the same. If you are talking about PvP tokens, how many of them are you opening? The rate is between 1:11 to 1:14. Are you opening 2 tokens or 10 tokens?

    Anyway, if you are not getting 4* progression cover in PvP, you will have a guaranteed chance to get 1 4* cover in progression.

  • Twysta
    Twysta Posts: 1,597 Chairperson of the Boards
    HoundofShadow said:

    Anyway, if you are not getting 4* progression cover in PvP, you will have a guaranteed chance to get 1 4* cover in progression.


  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    Let me rephrase, if you've not been getting 4* covers from pvp progression rewards reliably before the new hybrid pvp change, now you have a guaranteed chance of getting a 4* from progression rewards with the introduction of hybrid PvP.
  • jredd
    jredd Posts: 1,387 Chairperson of the Boards
    i have gotten the 4* cover progression about 100* of the time over the last, oh, since gambit. maybe about 85% before that. 

    i'm just talking about token pulls. 
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    PvE Comic store token rate changed from 1:17 to 1:14. 
    As for 4* PvP Token, it's 1:11.

    I don't suppose most of the time, you earn more than 3 tokens from either PvE Comic Store or PvP Comic Store.

    Realistically, your chance of getting 4* is still 1:11 to 1:14 or one in 10 to 14 pulls.  I won't have high hope that I'm getting 4*. I guess it's about setting a realistic expectation?
  • jredd
    jredd Posts: 1,387 Chairperson of the Boards
    i just find it funny that they announce that 'you'll all be getting more 4* from event tokens' when the changes to the odds don't mean changes to the randomness... they can change a 14 to 11 or put an extra 4* in a vault, but with 3-6 pulls, we're still going to get  1 3* and 2-5 2*
  • optimus2861
    optimus2861 Posts: 1,233 Chairperson of the Boards
    From the ~6 heroics I had in stock this morning, I pulled a yellow Panther and a red Valkyrie.

    Small sample size? Sure. Needed? Yup. Welcome? Absolutely.
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,102 Chairperson of the Boards
    optimus2861 said:
    From the ~6 heroics I had in stock this morning, I pulled a yellow Panther and a red Valkyrie.

    Small sample size? Sure. Needed? Yup. Welcome? Absolutely.


    I thought the odds for 4* from Heroics didn't get changed?


  • Cactus_Jack_87
    Cactus_Jack_87 Posts: 210 Tile Toppler
    I know I am! I pulled four 10 packs from my season rewards, and I got ONE four star! A 100% increase from my usual 4* pulls in ten packs! I had to sit down to collect myself.
  • optimus2861
    optimus2861 Posts: 1,233 Chairperson of the Boards
    Oh, I don't remember. You're probably right. I may have just used up my luck for the next month.
  • Punisher5784
    Punisher5784 Posts: 3,845 Chairperson of the Boards
    HoundofShadow said:
    Let me rephrase, if you've not been getting 4* covers from pvp progression rewards reliably before the new hybrid pvp change, now you have a guaranteed chance of getting a 4* from progression rewards with the introduction of hybrid PvP.

    It's only "guaranteed" if you have the desire and motivation to dread through 40 wins.
  • smkspy
    smkspy Posts: 2,024 Chairperson of the Boards
    I've pulled far more 4s from the heroics since the change than PvP events... literally none.

     And I know heroic odds haven't changed, but I think people would see more 4s from these other event pages if dev would drop the dailt deal down to 100 HP everyday. 
  • BoyWonder1914
    BoyWonder1914 Posts: 884 Critical Contributor
    smkspy said:
    I've pulled far more 4s from the heroics since the change than PvP events... literally none.

     And I know heroic odds haven't changed, but I think people would see more 4s from these other event pages if dev would drop the dailt deal down to 100 HP everyday. 
    Agreed, this deters me from investing anything more than the 3 tokens I earn from scoring 850+. I definitely don't keep enough HP on hand to be buying 40-packs of PVP stores. 
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2018
    I think it's a good idea to understand how the law of large number affects odds of probability. I'm never upset at drawing 2* from Heroic Pack/Tokens because I'm aware of what I'm very likely to draw. If you keep on expecting yourself to draw 1 4* in 2 or 3 pulls, I think you're setting yourself up for unnecessary disappointment.
  • Nick441234
    Nick441234 Posts: 1,496 Chairperson of the Boards
    Thats all well and good, but when they make a fancy forum post about gaining more 4*s, you kinda expect you're going to gain more 4*s. Thats not happening. 
  • Jarvind
    Jarvind Posts: 1,684 Chairperson of the Boards
    I mean, they increased the odds by what, 25 percent? And the base chance was like 1-2 percent? This was never going to make any noticeable difference.
  • ZeiramMR
    ZeiramMR Posts: 1,357 Chairperson of the Boards
    Much like Support tokens in Story Vaults, people here keep asserting that a < 10% chance via RNG = 0%. And while in the here and now there are people who might have a bad streak (some of which posting about it on various forums), over time it equals out.

    That said, there has only been a small number of progression PVP tokens since they were adjusted, so the impact is still rather small. And it will be fairly small over time too. If 1/3 of the PVPs for the second half of the year have 4* PVP tokens, a person who always gets three of those should only expect 2.5 more 4*s than before the change (comparing 1:11 and 1:17).
  • smkspy
    smkspy Posts: 2,024 Chairperson of the Boards
    Which is why lowering the daily deal would be more helpful to making that increase seem greater. That's what? 3 extra tokens per event that people could get.
  • UNC_Samurai
    UNC_Samurai Posts: 402 Mover and Shaker
    I’m just upset with the removal of latest 12.  I didn’t get Blondie champed this past season, and now I’ll have 3 unchamped 4*s going into the next season.  And this effect is likely going to slowly get worse.
  • Sim Mayor
    Sim Mayor Posts: 309 Mover and Shaker
    I can honestly say that I've gotten what feels like quite a few more 4* covers from event packs since the change was announced. My sample size probably isn't big enough to be statistically significant, but I also know what my luck is normally like, and my numbers are definitely up.

    Now if I could just get the Iso to champ all the 14th covers I'm pulling...

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