Keep opening or stop

Magic

I have a dilemma with the hoard. I had about 230-240 pulls when Okoye entered the packs and I've decided it's a good trio to get covered. However after 88 pulls i have not been too lucky - just 2 Jessica Jones covers (that take her to 1-1-1), 5 Captain covers and 4 Okoye (no bonus pulls). It's a bit under the rates (by 1 cover) but close enough no too be worried about it.

I regard the captain as the lowest priority as I have Gambit championed. I like JJ and Okoye more.

So now I am facing another decision - should I keep pulling or wait till JJ leaves packs (or at least to see the next 5 and then have a few weeks to pull). I am just worried that I won't be able to cover JJ and that the only champion of the 3 will be captain (with Okoye being safe as she will stay for a while and I can keep pulling). If the risk of not covering JJ is high I'd rather keep hoarding.

Again - would this cover distribution on the oldest 5* in the pack stop you from pulling through?

Quebbster

I opened around 100 tokens when LumberCap entered the tokens and only got a handful of Jessica Jones covers then (I Think I only got two Jessica and nine Cap covers...). Since Ghost Rider got champed I decided to save the rest for Okoye, and when she entered I opened around 150 tokens (and am keeping opening). In the second opening I got a lot more Jessicas (I Believe out of 20 fivestar pulls half were Jessica), so now she is champed on a similar level as Cap.

In short - RNG can be darn streaky, that is why it is recommended to have a large number of pulls available to counteract this to some degree. I can't really say what would be the best way forward (you'll have to decide that for yourself), but you shouldn't let an unfavorable streak scare you, it should even out over time.

AlexNapalm

I had a hoard of about 240 that I opened once Okoye entered tokens. 219 pulls got me a fully covered JJ with one extra cover for champing, a fully covered Okoye and 9 covers on Cap. I'm digging JJ and would recommend setting her as a favorite and pulling until you get 13 covers for her. With your remaining pulls, you've got a pretty good chance of making it happen. 

Magic

I've opened a bit more and I am more discouraged - 114 pulls in total gave me 13 5* covers (should be 17 according to the odds but I get the variations in rng) with no bonuses. Also I now have 6 covers for Okoye (on top of 5 for Cap and just 3 for JJ). 

I had a dry streak of about 20 pulls before opening the hoard (while trying to get Cap or Okoye when their stores where up). So now I am in 5* hell - 135-140 pulls to get 13 covers (should be 20-21 covers).

As it stands I will keep my CP hoard intact and open only the odd LT I get. Then I will make a final call when I see the next 5* (I might skip Captain as well).

Bowgentle

That's not how it works.

You either hoard and then go all in, or you pull as you go along and don't hoard.

That's exactly the reason you wait for 250+ pulls, 140 pulls with a bad pullrate may even out over 250+.

Of course they might not, but if you want to cover stuff, you don't stop halfway through your hoard.

Quebbster

Bowgentle said:

That's not how it works.

You either hoard and then go all in, or you pull as you go along and don't hoard.

That's exactly the reason you wait for 250+ pulls, 140 pulls with a bad pullrate may even out over 250+.

Of course they might not, but if you want to cover stuff, you don't stop halfway through your hoard.

Truth. I tracked every single pull when I opened a hoard a year ago here. I had a pretty long dry run early on, but the four consecutive fivestar pulls I got later made up for it. And really, all you can Control with Latest is what fivestars you pulls since the pulls are predetermined.

Magic

Yeah - I know. It just that bad rates got me cold footed on this one. Since I would prefer JJ to Cap I am inclined actually stop pulling as it seems more and more unlikely that I will be able to cover her (while I should cover Cap and Okoye without a problem). So I might just move the grand opening to Okoye plus 2 new ones. 

Guys - what would be your take on Cap if Gambit would be nerfed? Would he become relevant? (let's assue that if Gambit is nerfed he is gone completely from meta). I have DD and Thor championed.

Bowgentle

BlackBoltRocks said:

Assuming a fantasy world in which Gambit is nerfed to OML level, or becomes a 5* version of the current 3*, BeardCap would definitely shoot up in prominence. His Purple is a sleeper ability, and his Red packs a solid punch. He would make a complete rainbow with Archangel, and those two can really shut down enemy AP. His abilities will clash with DD's and Thor's, and you miss out on active (and passive) Blue and Black, but they can still work decently together

You lost me at "running Archangel".

Yes, Cap would be good. Same goes for about a dozen other 5s.
5* tier is mostly balanced if you take the Cajun out of the equation, except for the Ocks and Banners and Archangels.

Magic

Based on the feedback from you guys and internal itch to keep opening I went with the hoard a bit further down. 

I have now opened 192 tokens and with that I've managed to fully cover Captain (4-5-4). I have picked up on "luck" regarding JJ - up to 9 from this hoard with 5 already in blue and one that will get swapped (to make her 2-3-5). I also have 8 covers for Okoye (3-2-3). I need to stop for a few days/weeks to champ Kraven (5 covers) and get some iso to eventually champion Captain as he is no longer eligible for a swap.

I still have ~60 pulls available to finish JJ if I decide to go that way. 

In terms of math - i have opened 192 tokens to get 30 covers. Around the advertised values as 2 came as bonus.