Different drop rates from offer to actual booster pack

Stormbringer0

cheers,

I bought me myself the big historic bundle, because the drop rates https://thumb.ibb.co/ikR83J/963_E0985_7_DBA_43_C4_8_A37_4186_A524_A7_C3.png

When I checked the drop rates in the vault, they were much worse: https://thumb.ibb.co/n5cWOJ/D3_CA3_D58_B69_D_4_D4_B_8341_365_F081_E4_D7_A.png

@Brigby, can we get an explanation?

Coilbox

:O really would like to hear that explanation... i got it myself too but didnt check that...

Stormbringer0

Coilbox said:

:O really would like to hear that explanation... i got it myself too but didnt check that...

Sadly I opened two packs of three already. But this time it’s a real issue, not just a bad luck thing. We spent actual real money for that and didn’t get what we paid for.

sjechua

The drop rates stated are correct.
The calculation of the Best is the inverse of the Light multiplied by itself twice.

For the Light Mythic drop rate: 100% less 16.09% equals 83.91%.
83.91% times 83.91% times 83.91% equals 59.08%. This is the chance of not getting a Mythic from an Historic Bundle Best.

Therefore, the Best Mythic drop rate is 40.92% as stated.

Volrak

sjechua said:

The drop rates stated are correct.

sjechua's right; they're correct (or at least consistent with each other).  The key is that the "historic bundle best" drop rates in the shop are your odds of getting 1+ cards of a rarity after opening all 3 packs (which it says on the screen showing the percentages).  Once you have the packs in the vault, it looks like it shows the odds of getting 1+ cards of a rarity from opening just one of the three packs.  The numbers have changed because it's the odds of a different thing, but the probabilities are consistent.

If drop rates were displayed in terms of odds per card, then it'd stay the same no matter how many packs were involved or how many cards per pack; I guess they picked odds per pack (or per bundle) because higher numbers make it look like better value.

Stormbringer0

Well, if they are correct, they should display it correctly. Otherwise it’s just confusing.

Stormbringer0

For the record: Still no mythic.

Volrak

Stormbringer0 said:

Well, if they are correct, they should display it correctly. Otherwise it’s just confusing.

Well, each thing they displayed seems to have been displayed correctly, but that doesn't mean it wasn't confusing.  E.g. it might be easy to see the drop rate per bundle (40% chance of 1+ mythics) and mistake it for the drop rate per pack (16% chance of 1+ mythics).

Stormbringer0

Volrak said:

Stormbringer0 said:

Well, if they are correct, they should display it correctly. Otherwise it’s just confusing.

Well, each thing they displayed seems to have been displayed correctly, but that doesn't mean it wasn't confusing.  E.g. it might be easy to see the drop rate per bundle (40% chance of 1+ mythics) and mistake it for the drop rate per pack (16% chance of 1+ mythics).

But isn’t it still wrong? I mean, just combining the % doesn’t make my chance better. 3x 16% are not 40%.

Volrak

Stormbringer0 said:

But isn’t it still wrong? I mean, just combining the % doesn’t make my chance better. 3x 16% are not 40%.

Nah, it's right, that's what sjechua was trying to say.

Think about it this way, if the chance of 1+ mythics from 1 pack is 16%, what's the chance 1+ mythics from 10 packs? It's not 10 x 16% (160%).  It's not even 100%; it's possible to open 10 packs and get no mythics.  What it is is 1 - (1 - 16%)^10, or around 83%.

Stormbringer0

Volrak said:

Stormbringer0 said:

But isn’t it still wrong? I mean, just combining the % doesn’t make my chance better. 3x 16% are not 40%.

Nah, it's right, that's what sjechua was trying to say.

Think about it this way, if the chance of 1+ mythics from 1 pack is 16%, what's the chance 1+ mythics from 10 packs? It's not 10 x 16% (160%).  It's not even 100%; it's possible to open 10 packs and get no mythics.  What it is is 1 - (1 - 16%)^10, or around 83%.

Well, you’re the math guy, I trust you.