Dominaria is here

13»

Comments

  • Stormbringer0
    Stormbringer0 Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
    How my theory gets confirmed within the next two posts after mine is great. :lol:

    This happens way too often. It’s a bummer, when the official drop rates, the non-displayed drop rates and the drop rates for each mythic and rare card gets in each other’s way. 
  • DBJones
    DBJones Posts: 803 Critical Contributor
    I got two mythics in my first PP, one in my second, and at least one rare beyond the guaranteed in the two others I've opened. Also, the saga deal is now the absolute worst I could get, as I have all three cards. Along with Mox Amber and Bladewing for mythics.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    edited May 2018
    FindingHeart8 said:
    the pack percentages look promising

    yet the pulls were less promising.

    @Volrak what do the scrolls (player entries) have to say about this?
    For mythics, the published DOM drop rate is equivalent to 1.543% per card.  Data contributors have recorded 22 mythics dropping from 1425 cards, which is 1.544% - almost uncannily close.  With the current amount of data, our 95% confidence range on what the true drop rate must be given what we've seen is 1.02% to 2.06%.

    For rares, the published rate is 5.21% and we've seen 75 rares drop from 1425 cards, or 5.26%, also very close.  The 95% confidence range is 4.24% to 6.28%.

    Stormbringer0 said:
    What I don't get: Why are there so many people seem to not get mythics from regular packs at all, while others get 6 mythics. RNGesus go home, you're drunk!
    It's self-selection.  If you got terrible luck, or awesome luck, then you have a story to tell, and the forums is where you'll come to tell it.  In the history of the game, I've yet to see anyone create a thread marvelling at how average their luck was. :P
  • FindingHeart8
    FindingHeart8 Posts: 2,731 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited May 2018
    Volrak said:
    FindingHeart8 said:
    the pack percentages look promising

    yet the pulls were less promising.

    @Volrak what do the scrolls (player entries) have to say about this?
    For mythics, the published DOM drop rate is equivalent to 1.543% per card.  Data contributors have recorded 22 mythics dropping from 1425 cards, which is 1.544% - almost uncannily close.  With the current amount of data, our 95% confidence range on what the true drop rate must be given what we've seen is 1.02% to 2.06%.

    For rares, the published rate is 5.21% and we've seen 75 rares drop from 1425 cards, or 5.26%, also very close.  The 95% confidence range is 4.24% to 6.28%.

    Stormbringer0 said:
    What I don't get: Why are there so many people seem to not get mythics from regular packs at all, while others get 6 mythics. RNGesus go home, you're drunk!
    It's self-selection.  If you got terrible luck, or awesome luck, then you have a story to tell, and the forums is where you'll come to tell it.  In the history of the game, I've yet to see anyone create a thread marvelling at how average their luck was. :P
    so we've all just had incredibly cruddy luck then...well that's grand. :/

    though to be fair I've actually found some of the uncommons I have to be better than the rares/mythics, and that I'm happy about. :)
  • Brigby
    Brigby ADMINISTRATORS Posts: 7,757 Site Admin
    FindingHeart8 said:
    so we've all just had incredibly cruddy luck then...well that's grand. :/

    though to be fair I've actually found some of the uncommons I have to be better than the rares/mythics, and that I'm happy about. :)
    Well on the bright side, the law of averages dictates that if you're having cruddy luck now...you should have better luck in the near future! :)
  • Stormbringer0
    Stormbringer0 Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
    Brigby said:
    FindingHeart8 said:
    so we've all just had incredibly cruddy luck then...well that's grand. :/

    though to be fair I've actually found some of the uncommons I have to be better than the rares/mythics, and that I'm happy about. :)
    Well on the bright side, the law of averages dictates that if you're having cruddy luck now...you should have better luck in the near future! :)
    That theory doesn’t hold up to itself, at least for me. Rivals of Ixalan was devastating for me. Luckily, there are some Mythic Uncommons in Dominaria. :P
  • Thuran
    Thuran Posts: 456 Mover and Shaker
    edited May 2018
    Brigby said:
    FindingHeart8 said:
    so we've all just had incredibly cruddy luck then...well that's grand. :/

    though to be fair I've actually found some of the uncommons I have to be better than the rares/mythics, and that I'm happy about. :)
    Well on the bright side, the law of averages dictates that if you're having cruddy luck now...you should have better luck in the near future! :)
    The law of averages is drunk....or giving all my 30% mythics (12% was it during hou?) to other players because the past half year has been atrocious....

    Looking at my full collection of DOM+IXL+RIX I can see that I have gotten around 6 mythics TOTAL from packs, the rest being from EP and guaranteed immortal suns. That is playing at the top of platinum for all 3 big releases, and unloading tens of thousands of crystals into packs, including around 2000 crystals into getting not a single mythic from DOM so far....


    This game needs a pity timer to ensure things like this cannot happen. I believe we have at least 2 other players in my coalition who are on their 6-7th DOM pack, and no mythics yet! 
  • gogol666
    gogol666 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
    Brigby said:
    FindingHeart8 said:
    so we've all just had incredibly cruddy luck then...well that's grand. :/

    though to be fair I've actually found some of the uncommons I have to be better than the rares/mythics, and that I'm happy about. :)
    Well on the bright side, the law of averages dictates that if you're having cruddy luck now...you should have better luck in the near future! :)
    Not really ;-)
    Also, Murphy's law is way more powerful
  • Froggy
    Froggy Posts: 511 Critical Contributor
    Brigby said:
    FindingHeart8 said:
    so we've all just had incredibly cruddy luck then...well that's grand. :/

    though to be fair I've actually found some of the uncommons I have to be better than the rares/mythics, and that I'm happy about. :)
    Well on the bright side, the law of averages dictates that if you're having cruddy luck now...you should have better luck in the near future! :)
    I can agree with this. I’ve had amazing luck with AKH - pulling 6 of the 10 masterpieces. Then, haven’t pulled a single masterpiece for two sets - HOU and IXL. On RIX, I pulled 4 of the 5 masterpieces and all but 3 of the mythics. With the new DOM set, I pulled two masterpieces and 6 mythics (not purchase mythics).

    So I believe there is some truth to this statement.
  • Stormbringer0
    Stormbringer0 Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
    Froggy said:
    Brigby said:
    FindingHeart8 said:
    so we've all just had incredibly cruddy luck then...well that's grand. :/

    though to be fair I've actually found some of the uncommons I have to be better than the rares/mythics, and that I'm happy about. :)
    Well on the bright side, the law of averages dictates that if you're having cruddy luck now...you should have better luck in the near future! :)
    I can agree with this. I’ve had amazing luck with AKH - pulling 6 of the 10 masterpieces. Then, haven’t pulled a single masterpiece for two sets - HOU and IXL. On RIX, I pulled 4 of the 5 masterpieces and all but 3 of the mythics. With the new DOM set, I pulled two masterpieces and 6 mythics (not purchase mythics).

    So I believe there is some truth to this statement.
    That’s great, but c‘mon. Reading this makes me uninstalling the game. I know, this is an example of extreme luck, but Oktagon and @Brigby do something to close the gap between no masterpieces and ten masterpieces.
  • Rhasget
    Rhasget Posts: 412 Mover and Shaker
    Froggy said:
    Brigby said:
    FindingHeart8 said:
    so we've all just had incredibly cruddy luck then...well that's grand. :/

    though to be fair I've actually found some of the uncommons I have to be better than the rares/mythics, and that I'm happy about. :)
    Well on the bright side, the law of averages dictates that if you're having cruddy luck now...you should have better luck in the near future! :)
    I can agree with this. I’ve had amazing luck with AKH - pulling 6 of the 10 masterpieces. Then, haven’t pulled a single masterpiece for two sets - HOU and IXL. On RIX, I pulled 4 of the 5 masterpieces and all but 3 of the mythics. With the new DOM set, I pulled two masterpieces and 6 mythics (not purchase mythics).

    So I believe there is some truth to this statement.
    If it's not rude to ask, do you spend cash on crystals for PPs or gain lots of purples/crystals in a top coalition?

    I have 5MPs total from KAL up to now without spending cash and being in a midtier coalition with decent rewards.

    How many total is mostly relevant in comparison to packs opened.
  • Froggy
    Froggy Posts: 511 Critical Contributor
    edited May 2018
    So much pessimism. I was merely trying to cheer you up and tell you that a luck drought will eventually end.

    And yes, I’ve bought some things in the store. And yes, I’m in Goldfish.

    But buying and being in top coalition is irrelevant to luck. Like I said, I did not pull a single masterpiece for two whole sets. Since DOM, I pulled two - one from a 120 pinkie pack.

    I know it’s depressig and even outright frustrating. But all I can suggest is to keep at it and recall the fun parts of the game.
  • bk1234
    bk1234 Posts: 2,924 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited May 2018
    I also find it swings back and forth, terrible SOI (playing in a top 10 coalition since day 1 when we got free mythics -- I had less than half of them before crafting), great EMN, terrible KLD, great AER, terrible AKH, great HOU, terrible XLN, great RIX -- DOM has been maybe the worst of all of them -- but it just makes me look forward to Core 2019 ;)
  • Gunmix25
    Gunmix25 Posts: 1,442 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited May 2018
    bken1234 said:
    I also find it swings back and forth, terrible SOI (playing in a top 10 coalition since day 1 when we got free mythics -- I had less than half of them before crafting), great EMN, terrible KLD, great AER, terrible AKH, great HOU, terrible XLN, great RIX -- DOM has been maybe the worst of all of them -- but it just makes me look forward to Core 2019 ;)
    HOU and RIX are my worst two. Dupe city left and right... be it PP or EP...it was duped. RIX was the worst.  If I ever see another time pirate.. it'll be too soon. DOM oddly has been one of my best sets. I've only Duped Meha so far. But my PP openings are now hitting full dupes... which tells me that I've hit the saturation point for C, UC, R. Thinking I'll just be opening progression packs from here on out and start saving for core 2019

Categories