How much orbs can I get from Premium Packs if they are all dupes? (BONUS: Hom much orbs from ToTP)

Larz70Larz70 Posts: 8 Just Dropped In
A handy guide for those who are no longer getting new cards from Premium Packs.  Basically a Premium Pack to orb conversion formula at the current rates (as-of 5/8/18).  Based on a simulation of 100,000 pulls:

ORI avg: 676.8 orbs.  When crafting ORI Mythics at 3,000 orbs, half of the player population will have enough orbs after 5 Premium Packs.  To craft a 5,000 orb XLN Mythic, we'll need 8 Premium Packs.

RIX avg: 1,114 orbs.  Because the current orb conversion is 50% more than regular, Half of the population will be able to craft an ORI mythic after 3 Premium Packs or an XLN mythic after 5.

XLN avg: 576.5 orbs.  6 Premium Packs to craft an ORI Mythic, and 9 Premium Packs to craft an XLN Mythic.

Pretty much confirms what we already know, RIX is the best deal, even with the mark-up. Note that the average above includes the bonus rare card.  This means that 5 regular boosters will have an average less than 100 (150 for RIX) from the numbers above.

The Trial of the Planes currently gives an XLN Booster Pack as a reward.  Platinum Players who pay the 30 crystals to play ToTP are getting 567.5 - 100 = 467.5 orbs every week.  In one month, for 600 crystals, they will have 1,870 orbs and 400 jewels.  The current rate for a Mythic+ booster is 75% Mythic and 25% Elite.  The Vault is currently offering Ixalan Mythic/MP cards so the average orb equivalent assuming duplicate Mythic and new Elite is 500 * .75 = 375 orbs (IRL, you're going to get either 500 orbs or 0, but we need the average to calculate the overall value of ToTP).  So, 4 weeks of ToTP at 600 crystals = 1,870 + 375 = 2,245 orbs. 

RIX orbs/crystal avg:                                 1114 / 320 = 3.48125
ToTP Platinum (XLN Mythic+, etal) avg:  2245 / 600 = 3.74167
ToTP Platinum (RIX Mythic+) avg:           (1870 + 750*.75 + 11870) / 600 = 4.05417

So as span_argoman already pointed out in his "is ToTP for me?" post, ToTP is indeed worth it for Platinum players who are pulling dupes most of the time (and don't mind playing the extra hours).  But I didn't expect it to be this close.

I wonder if holding on to the XLN packs and opening it later when the rates are better would make a difference.  Makes me wonder why the XLN rates are so low in the first place, or are the others just high? ......


  • Larz70Larz70 Posts: 8 Just Dropped In
    My mistake, ToTP currently gives out HOU booster pack not XLN.  It's the Across Ixalan (AX) event that rewards XLN booster pack.  HOU is currently not on rotation at the Vault but a booster pack has the following rates: C:98.67%; U:88.29%; C:25.51%; M:7.09%; MP:0.32%.  The result of running 100K sim is (results below already exclude the bonus rare card and additional assumption that we're still getting new Elites for consistency with Elite Mythic+ Booster):

     Min.      :    270.0  
     1st Qu. :    420.0  
     Median :    520.0  
     Mean    :    645.5  
     3rd Qu. :    870.0  
     Max.     : 3,020.0 

    The corrected ToTP orb rate is now:

    ToTP Platinum (XLN Mythic+, etal) avg:  (645.5 * 4 + 375) / 600 = 4.92833
    ToTP Platinum (RIX Mythic+) avg:           (645.5 * 4 + 562.5) / 600 = 5.24083

    ToTP is now at least 30% better in terms of orbs compared to spending crystals on RIX Premium Pack (50% better if waiting for RIX Mythic+ to get back on rotation).  I think this definitely makes it worth the extra 30 minutes - 1 hour grinding ToTP (although I'm still not doing it cause I'm saving my crystals for when Karn drops  :) )
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