How long will it take to get all the mythics in the ORI/RIX/XLN Premium Packs at the Vault?

Larz70

Histogram of results of thousands of simulation runs using each premium packs percentage rates.  Crafting mythics only from that pack once enough orbs were accumulated. Blue line represents median. (Note that the cost and percentages might change in the future.  Statistics below were based on rates as-of 5/8/18)

ORI:




Median: 21,280 crystals.  Mean: 21,278
Min: 13,160.  Max: 31,640
1st Quartile: 19,600.  3rd Quartile: 22,960

If your luck is neither good nor bad, it will take 21,280 / 280 = 76 pulls.  About a year and a half if you pull once a week or $700 if buying 3,000 crystals for $100.

RIX:



Median: 16,640 crystals.  Mean: 16,872
Min: 6,400.  Max: 29,440
1st Quartile: 14,720.  3rd Quartile: 18,880

If your luck is neither good nor bad, it will take 16,640 / 320 = 52 pulls.  Exactly one year if you pull once a week or $600 if buying 3,000 crystals for $100.

XLN:



Median: 46,500 crystals.  Mean: 46,394
Min: 28,500.  Max: 68,700
1st Quartile: 42,900.  3rd Quartile: 49,800

If your luck is neither good nor bad, it will take 46,500 / 300 = 155 pulls.  About three years if you pull once a week or $1,600 if buying 3,000 crystals for $100.


TLDR; Stay away from XLN Premium Pack.  Buy RIX Premium Pack and craft XLN Mythics.

span_argoman

@Larz70 Interesting analysis! Although the increase in drop rates for Ixalan makes it less bad of a set to open packs from. But it is still the set with the second lowest drop rates (Origins is the lowest) out of the Standard sets.

Although, I'd have to say a faster way of completing the sets will be to open Premium Packs (PPs) from Origins and Rivals till you've almost collected all the Commons and Uncommons, then switch to crafting while spending your Crystals on the latest set (to get 50% more Orbs in the initial month of release as well as building up a decent collection of cards in the new set).

When the crafting bonus for the new set is gone, it might then make sense to spend Crystals on the earlier Standard sets (except Origins) which you are interested in. Origins cards can be crafted from Orbs since they are the cheapest Standard set, and the drop rates for Origins aren't that great too.

Specifically for Ixalan, the Across Ixalan events are worth participating in to get to open Ixalan 5-card boosters at 20 Crystals for just 1 win. Play more matches and you get more bonuses depending on which tier you're in. The main point is that getting to open a booster at a 67% discount makes it a good source of acquiring Ixalan cards.

Also, mathematically Across Ixalan is a good source of Orbs but in practice the limited Crystal income from other events means that it only works as a good source of Orbs (and Crystals) for the Platinum tier. Every other tier gets a net income of -15 Crystals a week from playing all Training Grounds and Across Ixalan events each week. While you do still get Crystals from other events, this will greatly limit your flexibility in being able to spend Crystals on other items.

Also, don't forget to allocate Crystals for purchasing of planeswalkers from the Vault. This can either be done by holding a 600 Crystal reserve at all times and checking the Vault regularly for planeswalkers you might want to have, or purchasing the better ones available when you have the Crystals to (the latter method is not so recommended).