Infinity War Support Monetization

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  • Calnexin
    Calnexin Posts: 1,078 Chairperson of the Boards
    I'm reminded of the "chance" to get 5* Thor in the Sakaar arenas.  The odds there were ridiculous, as well.
  • scottee
    scottee Posts: 1,610 Chairperson of the Boards
    I would say that there's a different nature to pulling high level supports. With 5* characters, if you pull a cover, it doesn't make that big of a difference, as you still need 12 more covers.

    When you pull a rank 5 support, that's it. You get all 5 perks, regardless of whether you had a rank 1 or even didn't have that support before. (Then yes, you have to wait forever to have enough iso to fully level it.) But in terms of pulling the cover for it, it's a one and done. You never have a pull a rank 2, 3, or 4.

    It does make it much more luck dependent who has high level supports. With 5* covers, getting a couple can be luck, but getting a maxed character only happens with high level play. With supports, anyone can luck into a rank 5, and lots of high level players won't have one for a very long time.

    This of course can be changed depending how they award the Infinity Stone supports in PVP seasons. Do top 100 alliances get a Reality Stone? Or top individual placement? Or progression? And what rank? Is it a level 2? 3? 4?

    My guess is it ends up being a top 100 alliance reward at something like rank 3.

    But then that also means there's no way to get a higher rank than they award, because the Infinity Stones are not in the tokens.
  • Pr0spect0r
    Pr0spect0r Posts: 291 Mover and Shaker
    Calnexin said:
    I'm reminded of the "chance" to get 5* Thor in the Sakaar arenas.  The odds there were ridiculous, as well.
    I actually did get a cover from that haha
  • jamesh
    jamesh Posts: 1,600 Chairperson of the Boards
    ZeroKarma said:
    the probability of opening 24 master support tokens without getting a rank 5 is about 0.8% (0.9 ^ 24 * 0.1)

    Give me a thumbs up if you have personally had this happen to you with LT’s that post higher odds.
    Getting back to the discussion from the previous thread here, the 0.8% figure was for getting a rank 5 on your 25th pull after 24 rank 4 pulls.  If you want the probability of opening 24 without pulling a rank 5, drop the final 0.1 multiplier off the end giving about 8%.

    So getting a drought that long is not out of the realm of possibility, but it is still unlikely (you've got a 92% chance of seeing a rank 5 earlier).

    Comparing to legendary tokens, the big difference is that you've probably opened massively more of them than these new support tokens.  Using LT odds, the probability that you could open 20 tokens and not receive a 5* cover is 0.85 ^ 20, which is about 3.9% or 1:25 odds.  That means that if you have collected 25 5* covers, there is a good chance you will have seen a 5* drought of 20 or more tokens.  The more 5* covers you've collected, the more likely you are to have seen a long drought.

    But even though it is quite likely you've experienced such a long drought, the probability you'll see such a drought before your next 5* cover is still only 3.9%.

    My main point in the other thread was that if there is a disparity between an observed outcome and the one predicted by the published odds, you will need a lot more than one data point before you can decide that it isn't just bad luck.
  • ZeroKarma
    ZeroKarma Posts: 513 Critical Contributor
    Does the new vault count as IW supports? I'm going to say yes!

    So, we have some more math to do. This vault has double the odds for a master support token! That will definitely improve your odds of getting one of those fabulous Wakanda supports. 

    Right? 

    Well, sort of. The problem is that you get increased odds for the Wakanda supports but you now have an additional 4 Black Order supports in there. We all complain about the chances of getting specific 5* in the Classics tokens. Well, there are now more supports than there are classic 5*. This will only get worse as we go along. 

    So....to recap. 1 in 140 chance of getting a purple token. A 1 in 10 chance that the purple token will give you a 5* support. Then a little over 50% chance that the support is going to be a Wakandan support. 

    And if you want a complete set of Wakandan supports? Good luck! Because the chances that you pull all 5 in order without pulling a dupe is even more crazy. There is no swapping of supports folks. 

    @Brigby , the token store actually says 1:29 odds of getting a 5* support from a purple token. Is that actually the case? Please say yes, so that this becomes more ridiculous.
  • therightwaye
    therightwaye Posts: 459 Mover and Shaker
    edited May 2018
    Best way to handle this is to not participate. Support things that make game more fun not more like a slot machine. 
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    I bought the 250CP 4* Black Panther deal and I got 3 supports related to Wakanda. The other one is Children of Thanos support.

    I wonder what's the point of focusing on Rank 5 when they are obviously meant to be rare at this moment. Wouldn't it be more realistic to focus on Beginner or Advanced Tokens now (Rank 1 to rank 4)? It's like a 1* player focusing on building up only 5* characters from the start and ignoring all the other * tiers. 


  • ZeroKarma
    ZeroKarma Posts: 513 Critical Contributor
    HoundofShadow said:
    I bought the 250CP 4* Black Panther deal and I got 3 supports related to Wakanda. The other one is Children of Thanos support.

    I wonder what's the point of focusing on Rank 5 when they are obviously meant to be rare at this moment. Wouldn't it be more realistic to focus on Beginner or Advanced Tokens now (Rank 1 to rank 4)? It's like a 1* player focusing on building up only 5* characters from the start and ignoring all the other * tiers. 



    Because I'm not a 1* player. Supports gain their full utility at rank 5 and fully maxed. A level 2 or 3 support isn't going to move the needle for me. 4* are also pretty rare to be honest, and they are also super expensive to level. I pick the highest tier, but we also discuss how bad the math is to get fully ranked 4* supports.

    Creating a shiny thing for people to chase is only useful if the shiny thing is achievable with an acceptable amount of time, effort, or money. What you consider acceptable is relative, of course, but I so far don't see a reasonable path through time, effort or money to get something that will matter to me. 

    Why is this important? Because I might spend money on supports if they are available and powerful. We are missing important parts of the equation to earn my money from this feature. It's totally possible that the newer entrants to the game have begun buying a ton of these tokens, where they weren't in the past. But for veterans, there is more disdain than interest, and I don't think that's what they were going for. 
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    Everyone who has a three * character get the same set of support. They came out with a number of deals targeted at the 4* or 5* players. Some bought, and some didn't buy any. Those who did are seeing benefits of the supports. 

    Secondly, They did mentioned that top tier players are not going to see much impact initially. It's only about 1 month since supports were released. I think if the speed at which Master tokens are released makes you unsatisfied, then ignore it and look at it again 6 months later. 
  • Basepuzzler
    Basepuzzler Posts: 180 Tile Toppler
    HoundofShadow said:
    Everyone who has a three * character get the same set of support. They came out with a number of deals targeted at the 4* or 5* players. Some bought, and some didn't buy any. Those who did are seeing benefits of the supports. 

    Secondly, They did mentioned that top tier players are not going to see much impact initially. It's only about 1 month since supports were released. I think if the speed at which Master tokens are released makes you unsatisfied, then ignore it and look at it again 6 months later. 
    I believe that the main concern is if you have to wait 6 months then you probably won’t be playing the game anymore.

    i have saved 40k hp that I’m waiting to use oncea reasonable support vault or deal comes out.  I’m still waiting.
  • ZeroKarma
    ZeroKarma Posts: 513 Critical Contributor
    Basepuzzler said:
    HoundofShadow said:
    Everyone who has a three * character get the same set of support. They came out with a number of deals targeted at the 4* or 5* players. Some bought, and some didn't buy any. Those who did are seeing benefits of the supports. 

    Secondly, They did mentioned that top tier players are not going to see much impact initially. It's only about 1 month since supports were released. I think if the speed at which Master tokens are released makes you unsatisfied, then ignore it and look at it again 6 months later. 
    I believe that the main concern is if you have to wait 6 months then you probably won’t be playing the game anymore.

    i have saved 40k hp that I’m waiting to use oncea reasonable support vault or deal comes out.  I’m still waiting.
    Exactly. At least, if I were on the cusp of quitting, supports wouldn't bring me back. 

    @HoundofShadow Which support did people get that you saw such feedback regarding the benefits of supports. My limited discussion with friends in 5* tier at least is that the only benefit is the occasional fortifying of a Rockett and Groot strike tile in PvE, and even that may actually slow you down since it takes time for the effect to happen. 
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited May 2018
    Some posters commenting in the Supports forum.  

    When Legendary Store was introduced, players waited two months before they can buy a pack from the store. The only way you can get LT is to earn it. You guys had being through this before. It's only the first month for Supports.

    The devs have already made known their plan (kind of). Now, it's up to you to decide how you want to react. 

    One: you can continue to complain and and get angry/unsatisfied every time an announcement related to Supports is made.

    Two: ignore any news related to support since it's useless to many top-tier players.

    Three: continue playing the game as usual. Without support, you still have your 5*. It's not the end of the world if you don't have 2 or 3 Rank 5 level 200 supports now. 

    Four: quit the game and never look back.

    Five: others.
  • The rockett
    The rockett Posts: 2,016 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited May 2018
    HoundofShadow said:
    Some posters commenting in the Supports forum.  

    The devs have already made known their plan (kind of). Now, it's up to you to decide how you want to react.  When Legendary Store was introduced, players have to wait two months before they can buy a pack from the store.

    One: you can continue to complain and and get angry/unsatisfied every time an announcement related to Supports is made.

    Two: ignore any news related to support since it's useless to many top-tier players.

    Three: continue playing the game as usual. Without support, you still have your 5*. It's not the end of the world if you don't have 2 or 3 Rank 5 level 200 supports now. 

    Four: quit the game and never look back.

    Five: others.
    6.  Have the Dev team push these down our throats because they want us to buy them and make them relevant and ignore other outstanding issues in the game that need their attention more so than supports.    
  • ZeroKarma
    ZeroKarma Posts: 513 Critical Contributor
    edited May 2018
    HoundofShadow said:
    Some posters commenting in the Supports forum.  

    When Legendary Store was introduced, players waited two months before they can buy a pack from the store. The only way you can get LT is to earn it. You guys had being through this before. It's only the first month for Supports.

    The devs have already made known their plan (kind of). Now, it's up to you to decide how you want to react. 

    One: you can continue to complain and and get angry/unsatisfied every time an announcement related to Supports is made.

    Two: ignore any news related to support since it's useless to many top-tier players.

    Three: continue playing the game as usual. Without support, you still have your 5*. It's not the end of the world if you don't have 2 or 3 Rank 5 level 200 supports now. 

    Four: quit the game and never look back.

    Five: others.

    I'm going to go with 1. Why? Because I'm a long-time supporter of the game both with my time and my money. If I see something that doesn't compute, doesn't seem to work towards either of the goals of engagement or financial success, well then of course I'm going to speak up. Maybe I actually care (more than I should) if the game disappears due to apathy or the latest Marvel game on the block. 

    To the analogy of LT's. Hmmm.....

    1. The 5* made an immediate and lasting impact on the game with a single cover as soon as they came out. 

    2. OJSP correctly stated that LT's weren't supposed to be whaleable  and that lasted a hot minute before purchases in the game were revolutionized due to introduction of alliance CP for in-game purchases. This led directly to the creation of buy clubs and a whole new little culture that has made D3 a pretty penny. 

    LT's and 5* immediately shook up the landscape of the game as we know it. Supports are a resounding thud by comparison. 
  • Basepuzzler
    Basepuzzler Posts: 180 Tile Toppler
    HoundofShadow said:
    Some posters commenting in the Supports forum.  

    When Legendary Store was introduced, players waited two months before they can buy a pack from the store. The only way you can get LT is to earn it. You guys had being through this before. It's only the first month for Supports.

    The devs have already made known their plan (kind of). Now, it's up to you to decide how you want to react. 

    One: you can continue to complain and and get angry/unsatisfied every time an announcement related to Supports is made.

    Two: ignore any news related to support since it's useless to many top-tier players.

    Three: continue playing the game as usual. Without support, you still have your 5*. It's not the end of the world if you don't have 2 or 3 Rank 5 level 200 supports now. 

    Four: quit the game and never look back.

    Five: others.
    Everyone understands that there is limited development time so having supports came at the cost of having some other feature or character updates.  So our complaints are due to wishing that either supports start impacting the way we play the game, or the that the development time had been spent differently.  The former is much more achievable at this point, so we voice our concerns.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    The differences between 5* and support are clear.

    1) Supports are not meant to replace 5* characters, whereas 5* kind of replace 4* characters in the game. That's why many of you vets said that 4* is useless once you have enough 5*. The role of Supports is just what its name implies, to improve 3* and above characters. A level 250 Rank 5 support is not going to be as powerful as a level 450 5* character. 

    2) 5* are targeted at players in the top-tier, whereas supports are targeted at any players who have 1 3*. When 5* was introduced, most of the methods used to get LT can only be accomplished by vets or the top players. When supports was introduced, any player with one 3* automatically gets 4 supports and some Red Iso-8. 

    I don't think there's any point of complaining when the devs have already said that the top players are not going to see any impact immediately. It also could mean that before they released supports, they were already aware of this fact.

    They mentioned that supports are a long term project and it could introduce interesting gameplay in the long run. The devs have long term goals but players are only interested in instant gratification. Unfortunately, supports are not meant to satisfy instant gratification as of now.

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