4* odds in Classic vs Latest

udonomefoo

For some reason I had it in my head that the 4x odds on the "latest 12" 4*s was only in the Latest tokens, but the stores show that it's both.

Have I been wrong all along, or did they change this at some point around when the vaulting experiment was canned and I just never noticed?

Daiches

Wrong all along. The only difference between Classic and Latest tokens is which 5s you can get.

udonomefoo

Daiches said:

Wrong all along. The only difference between Classic and Latest tokens is which 5s you can get.

Thanks Daiches.  I guess that's what I get for not paying attention and never actually opening the store odds screen. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Wouldn't have changed how I pulled anyway since I wanted Thor.  My 4/1/3 Thor is really going to do me a lot of good!  Forced hoarding is really such a bad game mechanic that I can't help rebelling against it even though I'm only hurting myself.

Blindman13

However, the "4x odds" that is currently displayed is new.  When Vaulting ended and this new distribution was set up, there were 36 4*s, so the latest 12 were shown with a "3x odds" banner. There was another thread questioning how this would be addressed once we passed 48 4*s.  Looks like changing the banner to "4x" was the answer.

PenniesForEveryone

Blindman13 said:

However, the "4x odds" that is currently displayed is new.  When Vaulting ended and this new distribution was set up, there were 36 4*s, so the latest 12 were shown with a "3x odds" banner. There was another thread questioning how this would be addressed once we passed 48 4*s.  Looks like changing the banner to "4x" was the answer.

To clarify just a bit - the odds of getting the newest 4*s have not changed, it's still the 1/12 x 50% that it has always been.  What is changing is the odds of getting a vintage 4* which decreases as each new 4* released is added to the pool. 

Kevmcg

My understanding is this:

15% 5*
85% 4* made up of 12 recent at 3.54%  and  50 older at 0.85%. (and 3 others at 0%)
It is actually 4.17 times more often.

bluewolf

EDITED:

The ratio will increase every 12 characters, or about every 32 weeks. It took about one year from the ratio to go from 3x to 4x. I estimate we will be at 60 vintages in about 6 months, depending on how things play out around Infinity War.  We add 3 4’s about every 8 weeks, so getting 9 more after Valk will be about 24 weeks.

The odds of pulling a Latest is 3.54%.

Classic odds decrease every time a Latest is rotated to Vintage.
At 3X it was 1.18% 
At 4X its was 0.89%
At 5X it will be 0.71%
At 6X it will be 0.59%

The plus side of this is that each Vintage 4 becomes less important as they are added.  

1.  The boost list is 5 characters a week.  At 60 characters we were at a 12 week cycle between boost weeks.
2.  Essentials are weighted towards being Latest characters.  A back of napkin estimate for Vintage rotation:  Let's say it was 50/50 Latest/Vintage.  On average, we see 7 events every 4 weeks (7 day and boss events impact things).  That's 7 Vintage essential 4's every 8 weeks.  At 60 characters that's 68 weeks to see everyone get a turn.  (This estimate ignores that for 3 events out of those 8 weeks, a new character will be essential).
3.  As pointed out elsewhere, power creep/design evolution makes many vintage characters completionist pursuits at best, and don't add much in terms of making your roster competitive.  When was the last time that, say, Winter Soldier was the best solution to a particular problem?

BigSoftieFF

They need to segregate the 4*’s better so the newer players have a prayer of actually covering a classic imo.

Phumade

BigSoftieFF said:

They need to segregate the 4*’s better so the newer players have a prayer of actually covering a classic imo.

Honestly why?

Outside of nostalgia reasons,  the most recent 4* always has better health and damage dealing powers.

In terms of actual gameplay,  your almost always better served by investing in newer chars over the older chars.

BigSoftieFF

Phumade said:

BigSoftieFF said:

They need to segregate the 4*’s better so the newer players have a prayer of actually covering a classic imo.

Honestly why?

Outside of nostalgia reasons,  the most recent 4* always has better health and damage dealing powers.

In terms of actual gameplay,  your almost always better served by investing in newer chars over the older chars.

For me anyway, I feel like I’m missing a few essentials (Carol,Medusa) and would like a better way to have a realistic shot at covers. I’m also a completionist so I wanna champ em all.

Michaelcles

I’m a completionist also, but I finally realized there is no end to this game.  They will keep adding characters at ever increasing levels so long as they make money.

jamesh

bluewolf said:

The ratio will increase exponentially. It took about one year from the ratio to go from 3x to 4x. I estimate we will be at 60 vintages in about 6 months, depending on how things play out around Infinity War.  We add 3 4’s about every 8 weeks, so getting 9 more after Valk will be about 24 weeks.

Are you sure about it being exponential?  If there are N characters in the pool, then there are going to be 12 latest characters and (N-12) vintage characters.  If The latest and vintage pools have the same even odds, then the multiplier for latest characters should be (N-12)/12, which is linear.

With two 4* characters released every six weeks, the multiplier should increase by one every 36 weeks.

talleman

They should split the 4*s into packs based on their faction. (Avengers, Defenders, Guardians etc.)

bluewolf

jamesh said:

bluewolf said:

The ratio will increase exponentially. It took about one year from the ratio to go from 3x to 4x. I estimate we will be at 60 vintages in about 6 months, depending on how things play out around Infinity War.  We add 3 4’s about every 8 weeks, so getting 9 more after Valk will be about 24 weeks.

Are you sure about it being exponential?  If there are N characters in the pool, then there are going to be 12 latest characters and (N-12) vintage characters.  If The latest and vintage pools have the same even odds, then the multiplier for latest characters should be (N-12)/12, which is linear.

With two 4* characters released every six weeks, the multiplier should increase by one every 36 weeks.

You are correct; fixing my comment.  It does go up every 12.  Apologies.

However, every 8 weeks we typically see 3 4's released.  That means 32 weeks or about 8 months between ratio changes.  With Valkyrie already in game, we are 9 characters, or about 24 weeks/6 months from the ratio being 5X.