Inaccurate Booster Pack (Loot Box) Percentages

GrizzoMtGPQ

I call foul on the reported loot box percentages. There is no way that the chances on all boosters are not 100% for getting a Common card in a pack. Has anyone been able to demonstrate a pack WITHOUT a Common? 

Let's make it a game. First one to show a pack without a Common wins first prize.

hawkyh1

I got 5 uncommons in a pack recently. (no pic to prove
though)

HH

joerginger

I remember someone in my coalition family posting a screenshot of a booster pack with four uncommons.

GrizzoMtGPQ

5 Uncommons in a single pack, well then I guess there goes that! Got a report from a player in our coalition that he got a pack with 5 Commons. 

FindingHeart8

GrizzoMtGPQ said:

5 Uncommons in a single pack, well then I guess there goes that! Got a report from a player in our coalition that he got a pack with 5 Commons. 

yeah I got a pack with 1 rare and 4 uncommons, thought it was a glitch at first  

Froggy

Yesterday I got a pack with 1 rare and 4 uncommons.

Gilesclone

Exactly which booster pack claims to have 100% chance of a common?

DBJones

Some of the Premium Packs do, including Origins. It might be a rounding error though, something like 99.9987% might be the real chance.

jtwood

I had a pack a couple months ago with all uncommons. Posted it on my Discord because it surprised me. 

bk1234

My SOI booster from AM today had 2 rares and 3 uncommons.

Gilesclone

DBJones said:

Some of the Premium Packs do, including Origins. It might be a rounding error though, something like 99.9987% might be the real chance.

So has anyone opened a premium pack and NOT got at least one common?

Volrak

GrizzoMtGPQ said:

There is no way that the chances on all boosters are not 100% for getting a Common card in a pack.

I just don't get what you're basing this on.  If the chance of any given card dropping as a common was, say, 55%, then the chance that all 5 cards in a pack are common would be only 1-(1-55%)^5, or 98.2%.  The drop rates spreadsheet has about 30 instances of 5-card packs with no commons (out of several thousand pre-2.4 packs, ignoring pack types that don't have commons like EMN).

DBJones said:

Some of the Premium Packs do [have a reported 100.00% chance of a common], including Origins. It might be a rounding error though, something like 99.9987% might be the real chance.

You're on the money.  The app-reported chance of 99.72% of getting at least one common in a 5-card ORI pack gives a per-card drop rate of 1-(1-0.9972)^(1/5), or about 69%.  If you open a Premium Pack where each card has a 69% chance to be common, the chance of at least one common is 1-(1-0.69)^25, or 99.99999999998%.  So you can expect about one in 6 trillion ORI PPs to be common-free.  That's still not strictly impossible, but unlikely enough that it'd almost certainly never happen in the life of the game.

Grixis197

Its possible to get 5 Uncommons, I normally get 4 uncommons in a pack 

Marvaddin

I'm taking notes of my boosters for some months, and I had already a handful of boosters with 5 uncommons.

Sirchombli

Hopefully this shows up. You're more likely to get a mythic than a pack of 5 uncommons, but it happens 

Tilwin90

Oh not that uncommon.... I got 5 uncommon packs a couple of times.... I also got packs of 5 commons which never happened in the past (I actually checked that in the past)
This is interesting... 

ArielSira

I just got a 5 common Ixalan pack from Across event booooo

Gilesclone

A new unwelcome feature of Ixalan is the 5 common pack.

FindingHeart8

I should be excited because my Ixalan pack of 4 commons came with a mythic...but given it's lack of usefullness I'm very meh.

killwind

I actually did get 1 pack out of 100 that had 5 rares in it of which 3 were dupes.