Drop rates changes

Volrak

It's great that drop rates are now published, so that every player can form realistic expectations when buying packs.  The published rates however don't always match what's been observed in the past.  This means that if the app-reported drop rates are accurate, then drop rates have changed.

The tables below compare measured drop rates from pre-2.4 card data (~50k total cards) with drop rates reported by the app (converted from "chance of at least one in pack" to "chance per card").  The measured rates are given as 95% confidence intervals, and the red entries are where we can be 95% confident that the currently reported rate differs from the previously measured rate.



The upshot of the possible changes seems to be that mythics, rares, and commons drop more often from normal packs, and uncommons drop less often, as well as boosting masterpieces from 400-jewel elite packs.  It's possible that masterpiece rates are also boosted in normal packs, though we haven't really got enough drop data to tell.  Overall, these seem to be positive changes if true.

If you're interested in helping to find out whether the current drop rates match what's being reported, then please consider adding your data to the community drop rates spreadsheet!

span_argoman

Just a note that you can't lump all the Elite Packs into 1 probability table as they each have their own probabilities. The KLD Elite Pack that expired within a day of the update had a 61.60% Mythic & 38.40% Masterpiece chance whereas the current Ixalan Elite Pack has a 75.01% Mythic & 25.00% Masterpiece chance.

Volrak

span_argoman said:

Just a note that you can't lump all the Elite Packs into 1 probability table as they each have their own probabilities. The KLD Elite Pack that expired within a day of the update had a 61.60% Mythic & 38.40% Masterpiece chance whereas the current Ixalan Elite Pack has a 75.01% Mythic & 25.00% Masterpiece chance.

Thanks, that's good to know.  38.4% MP chance would be even further away from previously measured drops; it'd make 1 in every 3 elite packs a masterpiece (compared to something like 1 in 6 previously).

Given that people have been asking over and over again for improved drop rates basically since the game started, and especially for an easier time getting masterpieces recently, I'm a little surprised that now it's apparently happened, there's basically no response at all.  I guess everyone's busy with the new content.  Or maybe everyone's still getting over how it was announced (Valuetown!)

Laeuftbeidir

.. Or still locked out @Volrak

I find those numbers interesting, and expect to see way more masterpieces in the future - those numbers are far off from what I thought (in a positive way)

babar3355

Or, we would rather have the **** mythics than the even **** masterpieces in elite packs.

And honestly, it's been more of the same for me.  My first 12 premium packs had 2 mythics.

But yes, if the new drop rates are higher for players overall, I consider this a huge improvement and one that will really help newer players.

Grixis197

I got the same mythic twice in the same pack from the bundle

gogol666

Just a note about the declared percentage: the app doesn't specify the exact drop rate, but gives the probability of receiving at least one card of a given rarity in the whole purchase. I still have to compute the actual drop rates, but I will be back with them as soon as I have

gogol666

Ok, for ixalan single booster pack the probability of receiving at least a mythic is 6.14%. this translates to an a mythic drop rate of 1.26%.
For bigger boosters the likelihood of receiving at least one card of a given rarity increases, but the actual drop rate doesn't. Who is interested in the math behind it can write me privately. However, rest assured that the stop rates for ixalan mythic is 1.26% independent of the booster size.
Rares drop at 4%, uncommons at 36.94% and commons at 57.79%. 

Gilesclone

I’ve been lucky at mythics with 1.4 but unlucky with rares at 3.4

DragonSorcerer

I don't believe the supposed rates for the elite packs. I've opened 15 elite packs over their life (2 since Ixalan) and NEVER had an MP. With rerolls that's over 20 openings. My few MPs have all been from premiums.

Gilesclone

I, on the other hand, got MPs the last two times I tried, but I was praying for Baral.
(Ornithopter and Vedalken Shackles - good cards, but not Baral)

Volrak

DragonSorcerer said:

I don't believe the supposed rates for the elite packs. I've opened 15 elite packs over their life (2 since Ixalan) and NEVER had an MP. With rerolls that's over 20 openings. My few MPs have all been from premiums.

It's not fun to be in that position, and it's why I support the idea of a pity timer on mythics and MPs.  But based on what the community opened previously, the drop rates for MPs from elite packs prior to the XLN release were previously much lower (more like 1/7, compared to the published rate of 1/4 now).  On that basis, if 1000 players have opened 20 elite packs with 1/7 chance of MP in each pack, 50 of them are in your position (no masterpieces from those packs).