Five Star Draw Pattern

VoltaicDuke

Since it has been confirmed that five star draws are predetermined and not purely random, has anyone posted what that pattern might be?   I would like to figure out where I am on that pattern so I can plan ahead - I am going from multiple five stars in steady succession to long periods of drought.

Bowgentle

It's fixed per player, but completely random between players.
No set pattern across the whole population.

VoltaicDuke

Bowgentle said:

It's fixed per player, but completely random between players.
No set pattern across the whole population.

Very interesting.  Thanks.

Xax

Do you have a link to this information?

Shintok17

I have had droughts and really good streaks. Like all aspects of this game pertaining to vaults and stores it is different for each player.

smkspy

I think the only assumed/speculated pattern (that can apply to every tier) is that "RNG" loves to target power sets once they hit 3. So that 1/3/0 quickly becomes a 2/5/0 or something like that.

This is not to say I've never gotten that perfect no cover waste or swap needed build, but they are few and far between imo. I got one for 5thor, but my poor BB sits at 5/5/0. 

shartattack

I'd like to think there is a wheel like on "the price is right" spinning every pull, so it was kinda sad to find out that your pulls are already predetermined randomly.  It is good in a way, in that, when you are in a bad stretch, you just keep pulling to get out.  This has been confirmed by some players.  I also know that players who have "previewed" pulls have gotten sandboxed.  I don't know how to do it, but that it is a thing.

LifeofAgony

The pulls were not always pre-determined which is what led to multiple variants of exploits forcing the devs to change the mechanics to fix the issues.

jredd

Bowgentle said:

It's fixed per player, but completely random between players.
No set pattern across the whole population.

wait a sec...

so you're saying if i pull 50 pulls, it's already determined that i'll pull a 5* at say pull numbers 5, 15, 17, 45?

but if you made 50 pulls at the same time you'd pull a 5* at pull 11, 17, 27, 28, 35, 41, 44 and 49?

Dotproduct

jredd said:

Bowgentle said:

It's fixed per player, but completely random between players.
No set pattern across the whole population.

wait a sec...

so you're saying if i pull 50 pulls, it's already determined that i'll pull a 5* at say pull numbers 5, 15, 17, 45?

but if you made 50 pulls at the same time you'd pull a 5* at pull 11, 17, 27, 28, 35, 41, 44 and 49?

That's how I read it. 

jredd

Dotproduct said:

jredd said:

Bowgentle said:

It's fixed per player, but completely random between players.
No set pattern across the whole population.

wait a sec...

so you're saying if i pull 50 pulls, it's already determined that i'll pull a 5* at say pull numbers 5, 15, 17, 45?

but if you made 50 pulls at the same time you'd pull a 5* at pull 11, 17, 27, 28, 35, 41, 44 and 49?

That's how I read it. 

so, hypothetically speaking, if your luck was poor, you could pull the same amount as player b and always come up with fewer 5* pulls just cause?

shartattack

apparently, this was done so that over a large enough sample size, just about everyone will be right at  or around 15%

LifeofAgony

jredd said:

Bowgentle said:

It's fixed per player, but completely random between players.
No set pattern across the whole population.

wait a sec...

so you're saying if i pull 50 pulls, it's already determined that i'll pull a 5* at say pull numbers 5, 15, 17, 45?

but if you made 50 pulls at the same time you'd pull a 5* at pull 11, 17, 27, 28, 35, 41, 44 and 49?

Yes.  Each individual person has it predetermined.

Quebbster

LifeofAgony said:

The pulls were not always pre-determined which is what led to multiple variants of exploits forcing the devs to change the mechanics to fix the issues.

To put it Another way: This is why we can't have nice things.

Dotproduct

Thinking about this predetermined draw issue it feels more like just grinding because you can't beat the odds for draws now. You'll get what you get when the devs want you to get it. So really it's just progression for token draws as well just not made upfront to give the illusion of RNG. 

bluewolf

The people you should really be upset with are those who manipulated the old system by doing unusual, unintended things to stack their rosters with 5*s.  For most players it didn’t matter much, but the highest payers were getting their purchases devalued by others cheating the system.

One thing you have control over is the Bonus Heroes and which store you use resources in.  So try to make the best choices there.

Xax

Is this documented data provided by the devs somewhere (and if so, where) or information that's been data mined? I've never read anything about this on this forum. I'd love to read the details from the source if someone could point me in the right direction.

bluewolf

Xax said:

Is this documented data provided by the devs somewhere (and if so, where) or information that's been data mined? I've never read anything about this on this forum. I'd love to read the details from the source if someone could point me in the right direction.

A.  Not that I have ever seen, so I say no.
B.  Maybe?  But this is, after all, the publisher’s forum so I don’t know if anyone would share that if it was.

The issue is that people were re-rolling (aka not accepting) their draws when it was “truly random” through shenanigans. And the devs had two options:  stop the ability for users to re-roll through their device manipulations (good luck), or just remove the randomness so that no one could gain advantage.  It just makes sense that the easiest-to-accomplish solution was to remove randomness.

Edit:  I would have loved to have been with one of the cheaters when they realized their cheats didn’t work anymore. I really hope some broke their phones in anger.

Quebbster

mexus said:

Shocking.

Positively shocking.

DAZ0273

So just to get my head around this – the acquisition rate at which you are able to receive 5* characters is already set per player before making draws but the 5* cover received is still completely random?

MadScientist

From a technical point of view, I would guess that the game saves the seed of a random number generator for each person. This way the sequence of random numbers that are generated for that player are always the same.

If the game saves only one seed, the outcome could depend on the order of tokens you open (e.g. the pre-determined numbers are, say, 123 and 456. If you open a standard token first and a legendary second, you will get whatever you get with random number 123 from the standard token and whatever you get with number 456 from a legendary token. If you open the other way round, you will get whatever you get with numer 123 from a legendary token and whatever you get with number 456 from a standard token).

If the game saves a seed for each token type, then the order would not matter.