Devil You Know PVP information from S4 and beyond plus other comments

The rockett

As promised, here is the information from S4 PVP Devil you know.  I would also like to say Thank You to the vets out there that are sending me other information from other slices and also tracking this as well. 

Info 4.8.1 4.8.2 4.8.3 4.8.4 4.7.1 4.7.2 4.7.3 4.6.1 4.6.2 4.5.1 Top 5 score 3742 4365 4753 4723 4401 4492 3097 3453 666 Top 10 score 3102 1366 4180 4011 2328 3819 2014 1826 551 Lowest we can see with 1200 1216 1203 1202 1365 1416 1315 1282 1233 Rank of lowest above 1200 19 12 33 27 17th 29 13 13 Flipped with 6 hrs left

As you can see, 83 people that have missed the CPs this time.  This will be a growing trend and a lot of people are getting very frustrated with this.  CPs need to be put back into Progression at some level.  I am missing SL5 data for right now.

I also saw comments about this data doesn't matter casue we don't have the old data, well I would say if we knew for sure when this would have been implemented, we would have tracked it so we could show.  I will say, yes D3/Demi does have data, but any data that has SL1-6 is invalid.  The reason is that there was never a 4* cover in progression so how can you include this information into your data, which we have never seen and never will. 

The rockett

4.8.1

3742 3102 1216 194.8.2 4365 1366 1203 12

4.8.3

4753 4180 1202 33

4.8.4

4723 4011 1365 274.7.1 4401 2328 1416 17th 4.7.2 4492 3819 1315 294.7.3 3097 2014 1282 134.6.1 3453 1826 1233 134.6.2 666 551 Flipped with 6 hrs left4.5.1Waiting on info

The rockett

Slice 3 CL 8 Bracket 5

T1= 3369
T5= 3042
T10= 1146
Last score above 1200= 1775 in 9th place

Thanks @Colognoisseur

Pants1000

My 2.7 bracket had only 7 people with 1200+.  3 people got CP that wouldn't have under the old system.  More anecdotal evidence.

bluewolf

I was a 4.7 bracket.  #17 was 1416, so 7 people missed it.  #1 was 5033.   #10 was 2328.

I was #21 with 1017, with my 40 wins.

alaeth

Seems to be working just fine...  Those that "have" are getting T10, making it even easier to widen the gap from the "have-nots" (4* and 5* transition players in scl6+).

/sarcasm




Waiting for @Welcome Death to post on how this can be spun as "more people are getting cp".

The rockett

@Pants1000 Thanks. Your right but it will depends if you got a lucky bracket as well. I have seen other s2 info that has 1200 outside of top 10. 

zahria

Great job @the rockett for compiling this data.  I have definitely noticed that things in PvP are much more competitive than before the change to remove CP from progression took place.  This isn't surprising as more & more people fight for T10 to get the CP.  But it also means that everyone has to work harder & longer to ensure their placement is set. 

And yes if we knew when this change was going to come into place, we would have been happy to provide data to compare before & after.  While I hope that D3/Demi has access to similar data to this, given that @Brigby is going to forward the data to the developers tells me that they don't have the ability to compile this data.   This makes me wonder how they expect to make changes to PvP going forward. How will you track what's working & what's not?  If you're relying on the forums for this info, then you aren't getting a clear picture as not everyone will respond on the forums. This is where the info that The Rockett is providing is valuable to ensure that D3/Demi has the clearest picture of what does work & what has changed so that they can hopefully make changes to MPQ for the better.

mkmagius

Mine:
Slice 2 cl7. I don't know the flip.
Top1.  1371
Top5.   1292
Top10  1244
Lowest 1200 was 12th with 1223.

For anecdotal purposes 13th had 1193. 14th at 1191. Good chance they would have gotten to 1200 if cp was there.

Bowgentle

1.7.

T1: 2536
T5: 2252
t10: 1805 (me)

Lowest 1200: Rank 18 with 1240

Sandmaker

The problem with this thread (actually with all of these threads) is that it is entirely looked at from the perspective of what the "vets" lost. Not what the player base as a whole has gained. So let's do the cost/benefit analysis on this data:

CP Cost:
83/5000 = 1.6% of players lost CP 
83*15 CP = 1245 CP lost total from pvp change

CP Gained:
First consider how many people are below 900. Typically 900 lands you squarely in T50. Let's play it very safe and say T150. So everyone below (350/500 = 70%) gained the ability to receive a 4* they couldn't before.

Of course, not all of these people are willing to grind the 40 wins, so we use this 70% as a max cap, and look at increasing percent of participation for the data sample.

# of Additional 4* Covers Gain From PvP Change, relative to % players willing to grind
5% * 5000 = 250  Covers 
10% * 5000 = 500  Covers
20% * 5000 = 1000 Covers
30% * 5000 = 1500 Covers
50% * 5000 = 2500 Covers
70% * 5000 =  3500 Covers

Now we need to look at how many CP a single 4* cover is worth. To do this we can look at the max/min value:

Max Value: 20cp guarantees a 4* cover with a chance at 5*. So definitely not >20cp
Min Value: The average champion reward for a 4* cover is:

112,500/100 Iso + 10/100 LT + 4,000/100 HP + 250/100 CP
=1,125 Iso + 0.1 LT +40 HP + 2.5 CP

Let's ignore the ISO and HP. and an LT is worth 25 CP

This would make a 4* cover worth at the minimum 0.1*25 + 2.5 = 5CP

Let's just assume the min value of 5CP per cover, and applying this to the distribution above: 

# of Additional CP Gained From PvP Change, relative to % players willing to grind
5% * 5000 = 250*5 = 1250 CP
10% * 5000 = 500*5 = 2500 CP
20% * 5000 = 1000*5 = 5000 CP
30% * 5000 = 1500*5 = 7500 CP
50% * 5000 = 2500*5 = 12500 CP
70% * 5000 =  3500*5 = 17500 CP


Conclusion:

Compare the distribution above against the 1245 CP lost in this tournament. This means that assuming even a very conservative 5% of players taking advantage of the pvp change to get the 4* progression reward, the PVP change produced more CP for the playerbase in this event. My guess is that the rate is much higher than 5%.

And this is assuming the absolute minimum CP value of a 4* cover just from champion reward. A 4* cover is worth more than 5CP for the large majority of players. 

Yes, 1.6% of players got the short end of the deal in this process. And this sucks for them. But it is clear mathematically that this change was a pretty big gain in CP for the player base as a whole. 

TLDR: Mathematically, using this data, the player base as a whole gained more CP from the PVP Wins Change than they lost. 

Bowgentle

Sandmaker said:

TLDR: Mathematically, using this data, the player base as a whole gained more CP from the PVP Wins Change than they lost. 

Only if you assume that everyone who now gets the 4* cover and didn't make it to 900 before is in the very high end of 4* rewards already, which I highly doubt.

Apart from the 1/10 LT your calculations only start coming into effect past 320, and I don't think the whole playerbase has every 4* char at that level.

The first 50 or so champ levels are worth next to nothing.

Sandmaker

Bowgentle said:

Sandmaker said:

TLDR: Mathematically, using this data, the player base as a whole gained more CP from the PVP Wins Change than they lost. 

Only if you assume that everyone who now gets the 4* cover and didn't make it to 900 before is in the very high end of 4* rewards already, which I highly doubt.

Apart from the 1/10 LT your calculations only start coming into effect past 320, and I don't think the whole playerbase has every 4* char at that level.

The first 50 or so champ levels are worth next to nothing.

If you want to make that kind of assumptions, then we need to start talking about people who value 4* covers at 20 CP, because that's what they're pulling classics for.

acescracked

Don't forget players who hit 1200+ by just trying to get 40 wins but then don't shield due to no shot at t10

reckless442

I’m not sure you have my bracket in s4.  Top score was 5066.  Top 5 - 4753. Top 10 - 4180.  11th place was 4175, 

I stopped when I got the 4-star at 40 wins when my score was 2678.  Had previous PVP scoring been in effect, I would have gotten the 4-star cover at 900 pts, which I hit with my 18th win.

ETA: I see that you probably do have my bracket in the initial data.  But I think it would help to identify the 11th place scores to show how high players were without getting any CP. 

corytutor

ScL 7. I took 3rd. S1. 2038 points. 37 wins

WilsonFisk

While I agree with what you're trying to show and would like to return to the old system, I think the complete lack of any D3 response to the numerous threads about the new PVP system is pretty evident we're stuck with it. 

D3 doesn't care if the non-mega whale vets are enjoying their game, they care if people are spending, and buy clubs are still going strong. Until that ends, I think we're stuck with it. 

Vhailorx

Sandmaker said:

Bowgentle said:

Sandmaker said:

TLDR: Mathematically, using this data, the player base as a whole gained more CP from the PVP Wins Change than they lost. 

Only if you assume that everyone who now gets the 4* cover and didn't make it to 900 before is in the very high end of 4* rewards already, which I highly doubt.

Apart from the 1/10 LT your calculations only start coming into effect past 320, and I don't think the whole playerbase has every 4* char at that level.

The first 50 or so champ levels are worth next to nothing.

If you want to make that kind of assumptions, then we need to start talking about people who value 4* covers at 20 CP, because that's what they're pulling classics for.

Tell me, sand, how many 5* covers came from your hypothetical CP gained.

Since they are all simulated cp based on cover acquisitions, the answer is zero, right?

And there are a ton of other problems too.  You assume that every cover earned is a champ level, and that champ levels distribute value evenly.  And you really think it's safe to assume that even 5% of people below 900 will grind for the 4* cover?  40 matches is a lot and the portion of the playerbase that grinds mpq hard is quite small.

Stax the Foyer

Just so we're clear, the minimum value, in CP, of a 4* cover is 0.  Because there are people who don't have some 4*s champed.

NicholasHewitt

SCL 7 - s3.
T1: 3377
T10: 2698
T20: 1264

At least ten people here! I also had to hop from 2500 to secure CP. Fantastic!

Vhailorx

S5.5 ( #1 at 1257, #2 at 969, #10 at 805)

Joined with 55 minites left around #200.  Finished 12 with 785 points on 13 wins (had 820, enough for top 10, before a -35 hit with less than 30 seconds left. Grr).

The 4* champ rosters go down to about #18 from what i can see.  And 8 of the top 12 finishers are 5* players.