In pursuit of Rogue

D4Ni13

I am generally not a hoarder, because I don't like to wait for my rewards, but I made a small exception when Rogue was released. I stopped from spending any CP with the hope that when she will enter packs I would have enough to cover her to at least a decent level. So I started to keep my CP, and LTs. During this time I was able to make 520 CP and 10 LTs. 

My Rogue was 1/2/2 at that point and since she entered packs, I decided to go ahead an use my CP on classic tokens, and keep my LTs for 5* Gambit (next week). So I was looking at 26 pulls and had the desire to get between 3 & 5 covers for Rogue. Statistically, my expectations were this:

• 4 5* covers
• 11 new covers
• 11 vintage covers
• 2 Bonus Heroes

What do you think, did I managed to fulfill my desire ? How off do you think I was from the average statistic ? 

The result: 

So I got:

• 2 5* covers. 
• 15 vintage 4* covers
• 9 new 4* covers
• 4 BH covers

BH was higher then expected, and frankly was what saved my desire for Rogue, because 4 covers came from there, with only 1 direct pull. 

So my pursuit of Rogue was a success, with 5 covers gained, a lot of other covers as well. I will follow up with the part 2, when Gambit enters the tokens and I will dive into my LTs. 

PS. Got another green Rogue cover from a Hunt token, so she is at level 229 (4/5/2) right now. With the final reward from SHIELD Simulator she would become 5/5/2 and hopefully one of those LTs will give me another yellow. 

Also it seems she is boosted this week for certain events.  

Starfury

Statistically, your expectations should've been 0.9 Rogue covers from the LTs 1.1 Rogue from BH.

So you vastly overestimated your chances but got lucky (as far as Rogue is concerned).

Congrats!

D4Ni13

Starfury said:

Statistically, your expectations should've been 0.9 Rogue covers from the LTs 1.1 Rogue from BH.

So you vastly overestimated your chances but got lucky (as far as Rogue is concerned).

Congrats!

I knew that chances were less than what I wanted. After the first 10 pulls, I had a bit of reality check and I accepted the idea that maybe I was a bit to optimistic, but BH saved the day. You are correct with that 0.9 chance of getting Rogue from direct pull, but I did hoped for the best and guess it worked out. I was lucky indeed. 

Thanks

D4Ni13

I've seen other people open tokens on youtube, and it was never the same ratio. Some got a lot more newer characters than vintage, and some got a lot more vintage than new. I was hoping to fall in the category of those who pull a lot more newer, but found myself in the other part of the average. Luckily for me, BH was generous.