standard pack drop rates

Unknown

I think the 2* and 3* drop rates from the standard cards were reduced by quite a lot. I have opened a lot of them recently but have not got any 2* or 3*.

Unknown

As it has been mentioned before in similar posts - your experience is purely anecdotal snd small, and does not actually mean anything. How about some numbers - did you open 10, 100, or 1000 tokens? What were the rates you experienced?


I have to imagine that you dont have these stats to back up the claim, and so I leave you with these parting words of wisdom...

Random is random.

Unknown

I've also noticed a decline in the 2* and 3* drop rates. I've probably cashed in 50 standard tokens in the past week and only received two 2* covers. Even the upgraded tokens (heroic, highly armed, highly trained, courageous, etc.) have only dropped one 3* for me.
No, I don't have the exact numbers, I have better things to do. Besides, it's just a thread on a discussion forum not a thesis paper.
Oh, and random is not so random when you can set the parameters. It's not out of the question at all for the developers to have lowered the drop rate for 2* and up covers

Unknown

It is "random". While you are correct that the devs do control the probabilities, what is actually dropped is determined via random number. Given that, unless you have numbers to prove that the actual drop rate has changed, there is no actual proof that rates have changed due to the nature of randomness. As a counterpoint, an alliance member got 4 3* characters last weekend, three of which came from standard recruit tokens.

TazFTW

I open standards in batches of 20. My last batch was this morning and I got 15 1*, 4 2*, and 1 3*.

Unknown

Gambit002 wrote:

I've also noticed a decline in the 2* and 3* drop rates. I've probably cashed in 50 standard tokens in the past week and only received two 2* covers. Even the upgraded tokens (heroic, highly armed, highly trained, courageous, etc.) have only dropped one 3* for me.
No, I don't have the exact numbers, I have better things to do. Besides, it's just a thread on a discussion forum not a thesis paper.
Oh, and random is not so random when you can set the parameters. It's not out of the question at all for the developers to have lowered the drop rate for 2* and up covers

Without numbers its anecdotal and useless.

Without numbers, your argument is basically useless complaining with no basis in reality.

Verno5x

I opened a standard token this morning too and received a red Human Torch. It looks like they've actually increased the 3* rate to 100%!

Unknown

Verno5x wrote:

I opened a standard token this morning too and received a red Human Torch. It looks like they've actually increased the 3* rate to 100%!

This is what I mean! From his perspective, it is now 100% as of today! that is because random is in fact random!

btw - there is a google spreadsheet that tracks ALL of this. The "since 4/30" column is out of wack right now because some people forgot to increase total when they increased count, but in those cases the number should be positive instead of negative, so the percentages work out to be right about the same, only all positive and with some taken away from the 1* and 2* area. And sure enough - the numbers are basically the same that they always have been! Who would have thought that your small sample size was not indicative of a change in drop rate percentages overall?


Oh thats right, I did.

Unknown

I have my own theory that I provide whenever one of these threads show up:

Standard tokens rewarded have worse drop rate than if you buy them with ISO.

My numbers are still small but:
Rewards: 111 (1*), 21 (2*), 1 (3*)
Purchased: 65 (1*), 15 (2*), 4 (3*)
ZERO 4*

Yes, sample numbers are tiny, but enough to fuel my superstition.

Unknown

Opened one this morning to find a Lazy Thor Green.

Probably just bad luck.

Unknown

Chaotic Ryu wrote:

Opened one this morning to find a Lazy Thor Green.

Probably just bad luck.

Yes - it is bad luck I am sure.

those sample sizes are way too small to learn anything from. Plus them keeping track of tokens purchased vs rewarded is extra work, extra data to pass back and forth every time, and is a zero sum gain for them, honestly. You may have won the Iso that was used to purchase the token, so it doesnt even mean you spent money to get those tokens. And then once they are together, how do you know which one you "pulled"? From a developer side of things, it makes no sense. They have better metrics for what people spend money on that are more meaningful, and having "if this, then that" all over the place in the code decreases readability, decreases maintainability, and increases the amount of technical debt you carry from release to release. Plus you have to then write unit tests for twice as many scenarios! (yep, I am a software developer).

I highly suggest that everyone who thinks "it must have changed cause I pulled X and havent seen Y in a week!" go and take a discrete mathematics course. Youw ill be better people because of it and can join in the educated minority who understand how statistics and sample sizes work

Cousin Simpson

Milkrain wrote:

I have my own theory that I provide whenever one of these threads show up:

Standard tokens rewarded have worse drop rate than if you buy them with ISO.

My numbers are still small but:
Rewards: 111 (1*), 21 (2*), 1 (3*)
Purchased: 65 (1*), 15 (2*), 4 (3*)
ZERO 4*

Yes, sample numbers are tiny, but enough to fuel my superstition.

I thought you blew over 100K in ISO, though? 84 * 500 = 42K only.

Unknown

I have opened arnd 50 in the last week

3* - 1 - spidey
2* - 2
3* - 47

Unknown

I highly suggest that everyone who thinks "it must have changed cause I pulled X and havent seen Y in a week!" go and take a discrete mathematics course. Youw ill be better people because of it and can join in the educated minority who understand how statistics and sample sizes work [/quote]

Oh yes please sign me up because "self righteous software developer/statistician" has always been my greatest aspiration.

Spoit

Something is up with the numbers. Since the last PvE event, I got 4 4* covers from tokens (unfortunately, only one of them was actually not-cover maxed, nick fury can't come soon enough)