Time to Chase your Cosmic Unicorn?

Hendross

I have 12 Silver Surfer Covers and enough CP to feed a small country.  So is now a good time to chase the elusive 13th cover?

We know the odds of getting 1 cover is 5% (since customer service will switch it for us, the color doesn't matter)

I ran 10,000 simulations and the odds with the following results

Minimum Pulls: 1 (Lucky Guy)
Average Pulls: 18
Maximum Pulls: 186 (****)

Here's some basic stats



Lastly, I estimate (95%) confidence to get what I need in 26 pulls (650 CP) 


This is just slightly cheaper than buying outright (720CP) assuming average luck.  However, buying outright excludes the other 5stars (approx. 3) and 20+ 4 stars you'll get along the way.  Conversely, when I do pull my hoard with Surfer as Bonus Hero, CS will NOT assist.

What do you think? 

Orion

If you really want to finish Surfer, then go for it.  You won't get a better opportunity.

Khartmann

A bro from our ally drew 9 5* in 37 pulls, 4 of them were Surfers, plus an BH for the same character.

The odds were great for him.

Phumade

Outside of "misprints"s, the 5% in this store is the best rate ever published in the history of the game.  If finishing SS is a priority, then you'll never get a better rate for drawing his covers.

Even in the oops store, the 25% drop rate was split 14 ways.  So SS still had a worse rate than he does in cosmic.

broll

I pulled 16 chasing my 13th Thanos.  I got 2 Star-Lords instead and now I'm up against the ISO wall on 2 more 4*s.  I might try some more, but I might not.  As nice as it would be to get him to 13 each one I spend is one day further from a 300 pull from Latest's (I've calculated my average CP intake is about 27 per day).  Since I'd really like to hit that before 5pidey leaves and this store challenges the idea that will even still be possible come November I'm torn myself.

Not to mention I suspect this is a test to see if this is a viable permanent solution and they'll evaluated based on metrics of how many people pulled and how much.  Not sure I want to encourage this (at least not if it will be a separate token)

D4Ni13

Funny story about this Cosmic store is that I got 1 token from Red Hulk in DDQ, from which I got 1 cover of C4rol, who gave me enough CP to buy a Classic, from which I indeed got a 5tar-Lord and a bonus 5pidey for my effort. 

Was ironic that the cosmic store should have given me more chances for 5tar-Lord (even though I was after Thanos) and I pulled him from the most diluted pack.

Calnexin

Hendross 

This is just slightly cheaper than buying outright (720CP) assuming average luck.  However, buying outright excludes the other 5stars (approx. 3) and 20+ 4 stars you'll get along the way.  Conversely, when I do pull my hoard with Surfer as Bonus Hero, CS will NOT assist.

What do you think? 

You could start pulling your hoard now and stop when a bonus surfer comes up.  I don't think CS actually bothers to track where the cover came from - when you initiate the inquiry to swap they check your roster and available rewards.  If there's a cover in there that matches the criteria (6th of color and latest), they start the process.

I had it done for Hawkeye, and if they went any further than looking at my current profile they didn't let on.  I understand you're waiting until the latest 5* are worthwhile, but dipping in now would guarantee you cover Surfer, whether you get him as a token pull or bonus from Cosmic or Classic.

Unless you're unlucky enough to go through your whole hoard pulling zero BH or Surfer covers in your chosen store.

Edit - just red Brigby's post, which actually specified that the replacement would be honored IF it came from the cosmic store.  So I guess they're tracking it.  I recommend holding onto your hoard until you're ready, because Surfer is not going to be your go-to character.

jredd

i didn't have 5* star lord on my roster but i wanted to get him to do the required node on venom bomb. decided to use some cp to try and pull him from the cosmic tokens.

wouldn't you know it, i pulled him first try. rng must have felt bad for all the 2 stars he decided i needed over the past couple months.   

Hendross

So, I decided to roll the dice and stopped after getting Silver Surfer after 10 pulls;

1. X-Force Wolverine - Champ Level (4CP) + R&G - Bonus - Trained
2. X32 - Champ Level (100 HP)
3. Ant Man - Champ Level (2500 ISO)
4. Kate - Champ Level (2500 ISO)
5. Vulture - Trained
6. Iron Fist - Trained
7. Quake - Champ Level (50HP)
8. Yondu - Trained
9. THANOS
10. SILVER SURFER

****250cp Used******
9 - Usable 4-Star covers
4 - CP
5000 - ISO
2 - 5-Stars
************************
VERY Happy, right now... Silver Surfer does not require CS assistance either.  The rest of the hoard will wait til Doc Ock. leaves.

Orion

Very nice!  Enjoy your new champ, assuming you have the ISO to do it.

Anon

My Cosmic Unicorn is Phoenix. She's 2/0/0

SS is 1/2/2. Thanos is 2/3/4. Star-Lord is 1/1/3.

dudethtsawesome

I had 725 cp that I used to try for thanos. I received 1 thanos the first pull and a starlord about 10 pulls in but that was it for 5* pulls. Out of the 30 4* covers, all were usable besides 5 so it was a decent pull. I guess my thanos will be stuck at 0/1/2 for a little while longer. 

Starfury

dude awesome said:

I had 725 cp that I used to try for thanos. I received 1 thanos the first pull and a starlord about 10 pulls in but that was it for 5* pulls. Out of the 30 4* covers, all were usable besides 5 so it was a decent pull. I guess my thanos will be stuck at 0/1/2 for a little while longer. 

I spent about the same amount on the store. Didn't get a single 5* in the first 15 pulls, then two SL in a row and finally a Thanos about 10 pulls from the end.

I then spent whatever came in the following days, finally getting my 2nd (and 13th) Thanos with the last pull I could make. When the cosmic token store closed, I had 1 cp left.

Overall I spend around 800-850 cp on the store, getting 1 SS, 2 Thanos and 4 SL, so well over par. I really hope they'll make this kind of token a semi-regular thing for other 5* as well. Looks like a far nicer proposition to get 5* to usable levels than just hoarding 300 LT and waiting for a run of three good 5*.