Dupes dupes and more dupes

dragonslayer

I just got my 6th swelring suns and 5th hazoret's favore from the top 25 event reward. each time is either one of them so my question is is the rare card reward préprogrammed because i cant see how this is chance

Volrak

Whether getting a 5th or 6th dupe rare is unlucky / unexpected depends on how many total rare cards you have.  The graph below shows simulation results for this relationship based on uniform random drop rate assumptions (100k runs for each number of rares opened from 1 to 200).



For example, I have 5 Gideon's Interventions from 39 total AKH rare cards.  At a horizontal value of 39, the green and red lines have values of 3 and 6; this tells me 90% of people who've opened 39 rares should end up with between 3 and 6 copies of their most duped rare.  (5% of people should get 7 or more, and another 5% should get 2 or less.)  The blue line shows the average; for 39 rares, the average expected count of the most duped rare is a little over 4.  So, if rare drops are just random, I couldn't call my 5 copies of Gideon's Intervention from 39 cards strange.

dragonslayer said:

I just got my 6th swelring suns

In your case, assuming random drops, you could say your 6 Sweltering Suns puts you in the unluckiest 5% of people regarding highest AKH rare dupe count if you've opened less than 39 AKH rares in total (39 is where red line hits 6).  If you've opened less than 72 AKH rares, you're in the unlucky half of people (72 is where blue line hits 6).

dragonslayer said:

my question is is the rare card reward préprogrammed because i cant see how this is chance

If we found from an unbiased survey that significantly more than 5% of people are getting worse luck than the red line, then this could form evidence to argue that drop rates within a rarity aren't uniformly random.

Note that this simulation is slightly approximate because it ignores the new AKH rares.  It's pretty reliable if the vast majority of most people's AKH rares were opened before the new rares were available, which I expect is true.  Speaking of which, has anyone gotten one of the "new" AKH rares as an event reward yet?