Premium Pack odds vs. Normal packs (and Trial of the Planes)

Kyokudai Posts: 38 Just Dropped In

So as to not further dilute the Trial of the Planes Discussion, bringing this over here.

The discussion began with my questioning whether a half price booster from the Trial of the Planes was better than saving up for the Premium Pack.

You'll have to forgive me because I do not have my phone so I can't quote the interface directly, but I was operating under the impression that the advantage of Super and Premium packs is that each tier up came with better odds of pulling rarer cards.  So better rates for uncommon, rare, mythic.  Otherwise the price is exactly the same on each tier with the exception that Premium also comes with an additional rare.

This makes sense to me, as that is why you would save up to the 300 crystals (or whatever the price for super pack is).  Better odds for better cards, sign me up.  Otherwise, you only really need the single booster option and the premium pack option, as the super pack is redundant.

So, question 1 to answer: Do Premium packs also come with better odds at pulling higher quality cards?
@Brigby any chance I could get an official answer if this is the case with super packs and premium packs?

Second: On the discussion of Trial of the Planes discount. 

IF a premium pack has better odds attached to it, is getting a pretty much guaranteed normal booster at half price better than saving up for the premium pack which also comes with a rare?


  • hawkyh1
    hawkyh1 Posts: 780 Critical Contributor
    edited June 2017
    my understanding is there's 2 parts to it:
    1. odds per pack of finding a rare+
    2. number of packs opened

    the odds per pack may or may not be better with
    the premium pack but being able to open twice
    as many packs for the same price should put you
    at an advantage, unless the odds were double or
    better with the premium packs. being relatively
    new opening more akh booster packs has the
    additional advantage of getting missing common
    and uncommon cards.

  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Here are the drop rates that have actually been observed (from the drop rates spreadsheet, linked in my sig).

    Some hypothesised true drop rates (1%, 4%, 40%, 55%) for the "normal" pack types (5 pack, Super pack, Premium pack) are shown by dashed lines.  For those pack types, the error bars (95% confidence) encompass those lines in all cases, meaning there's no support for different true drop rates amongst those pack types.  (These numbers exclude the bonus rare from premium packs.)

    Contrast that to basic booster (3 pack), where the error bars in all cases do not encompass the dashed lines.  It's clear that 3 packs have an increased chance of common drops, and reduced chance of other drops.

    Even though we have enough data to do this kind of analysis with a high degree of confidence, I'd also like to hear official comments on drop rates.
  • Kyokudai
    Kyokudai Posts: 38 Just Dropped In

    So it seems that there is no statistical difference from the amount of data between any of the packs.  The only good thing is that the premium comes with the guaranteed rare.

    It would still be nice to receive an official word.  It doesn't seem like something that needs to be obscured if they are advertising it as such.  We will see if anything comes but I'm not holding my breath.