Cascading rates

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Stormbringer0
Stormbringer0 Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
in MtGPQ General Discussion
Cheers,

is it just me or does random cascades happen way more often than before? It happens on both sides (opponent and me), but with the new standard format, it is way harder to come back, when an opponent Koth dumps his whole hand (especially, when you got gangraped by RNJesus and his freinds and got 8 dupes of Servant of the Conduit in your Kaladesh boosters, which leaves you with not many rares and mythics to compete).

Thanks for your answers in advance.

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  • shteev
    shteev Posts: 2,031 Chairperson of the Boards
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    See also: 'Confirmation Bias'
  • EDHdad
    EDHdad Posts: 609 Critical Contributor
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    It may or may not be happening.  One way to tell would be to go through your battle logs and tabulate the number of gem matches for each player for a statistically significant number of turns (30 at a bare minimum, but 100 or more would be better).

    I haven't seen any hard evidence that this is happening, but I'm willing to look at any which anyone would care to present.
  • Emanon2000
    Emanon2000 Posts: 156 Tile Toppler
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    Yes!  I thought I was going crazy.
    I agree that its both sides enjoying those 'fruits'
  • madwren
    madwren Posts: 2,237 Chairperson of the Boards
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    James13 said:
    Word of the day: Apophenia.

    The (natural) tendency to interpret meaning in random data or statistical noise.

    We're all hard wired to try to interpret/predict trends.

    It can be a little confounded here considering the lack of cascades tends not to have as much staying power in memory as not much happened that event.

    As you suggest, perhaps it seems like a change due to the impact you feel.  But I don't think cascading of falling gems has ever been anything but random still, and certainly not biased toward particular turns.

    This is a great word!
  • Formulator
    Formulator Posts: 31 Just Dropped In
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    I thought I noticed more cascades after the deck slot patch. Then I noticed more threads like this on the forums for the first time in months... But I still think it's just coincidence and confirmation bias... Psychedelic.
  • wink
    wink Posts: 136 Tile Toppler
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    I remember asking the same thing after an earlier patch...maybe 1.7 or 1.8. But it just turned out to be apophenia.
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
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    wink said:
    I remember asking the same thing after an earlier patch...maybe 1.7 or 1.8. But it just turned out to be apophenia.

    There are three sure threads to pop up after every expansion:

    1) drop rates nerfed! 
    2) cascades! Imbal ai upgrade! 
    3) coalition pve objectives too hard! 

    You were simply part of the matrix. 

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