2.10 drop rate stats

Volrak
Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
in MtGPQ General Discussion
Prior to 2.10, the drop rate spreadsheet had data for about 8,000 cards; now with an influx of both KLD and AKH pack data it's up to nearly 20,000.  Thanks to all the contributors!

Using the new data to look at basic drop rates:
  • Actual drop rates appear to have stayed unchanged with 2.10.
  • The extra data has allowed us to refine the drop rate estimates (see below).


The numbers along the top of the graph are the measured drop rates from the overall data, and the bell curves show the possible ranges of each true drop rate given the volume of data, with likelihood weighted by the height of the curve.  The updated curves with current data (fat lines) have a narrower range horizontally than the pre-2.10 curves (skinny lines), due to greater data giving more precise estimates.

Because the curves for pre-2.10 data only (skinny lines) overlap in each case with the curves for post-2.10 data only (dotted lines), there's no evidence for changes to actual drop rates in the 2.10 release.

If d3go are using round numbers for their drop rates, it's a good bet that the true drop rates for normal 5-card packs (including bundles containing multiple 5-card packs) are 1 masterpiece per 200 packs (0.1%), 1 mythic per 20 packs (1%), and 1 rare per 5 packs (4%).  Uncommon and common drop rates (not shown in the graph) remain at around 40% and 55% respectively.
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Comments

  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    I have opened some 80packs thus far and got only 1 mythic. 

    Was kinda afraid that they reduced drop rates in exchange for a dupe redemption system.

    Thanks for doing the legwork to clear it up. 
  • AngelForge
    AngelForge Posts: 325 Mover and Shaker
    @Volrak
    Thank you for your post! :-)

  • blacklotus
    blacklotus Posts: 589 Critical Contributor
    today i just opened 48 new kld singles and 6 old kld fatpacks. only in my 6th fatpsck did I managed to get a mythic. that is 1/(48x 5 + 6x 21) chance. 

    luckily, said mythic was a new Gonti's Heart for my acct. 
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    blacklotus said:
    today i just opened 48 new kld singles and 6 old kld fatpacks. only in my 6th fatpsck did I managed to get a mythic. that is 1/(48x 5 + 6x 21) chance. 

    luckily, said mythic was a new Gonti's Heart for my acct. 
    That's 48x 5 + 6x 20 (=360) cards which had an ordinary chance of dropping as a mythic, but it's not a 1/360 chance of anything.

    1/9 people get only one mythic from 360 cards.  (Glad it was a good one!)  And 1/32 get none.  You can play with the "Interactive - Expected mythic drops" table on the "Summary & Interactive" tab of the spreadsheet to see these and similar probabilities.
  • blacklotus
    blacklotus Posts: 589 Critical Contributor
    Volrak said:
    blacklotus said:
    today i just opened 48 new kld singles and 6 old kld fatpacks. only in my 6th fatpsck did I managed to get a mythic. that is 1/(48x 5 + 6x 21) chance. 

    luckily, said mythic was a new Gonti's Heart for my acct. 
    That's 48x 5 + 6x 20 (=360) cards which had an ordinary chance of dropping as a mythic, but it's not a 1/360 chance of anything.

    1/9 people get only one mythic from 360 cards.  (Glad it was a good one!)  And 1/32 get none.  You can play with the "Interactive - Expected mythic drops" table on the "Summary & Interactive" tab of the spreadsheet to see these and similar probabilities.
     I guess my previous mythic draws were above the statistical threshold. Need to thank my lucky stars. :)

    For AKH, I drew 1 mythic after 3 premium packs and 2 mythics after 7 premium packs for 2 separate accounts. 

    I will add these stats to your collection later, when I have done more openings. 
  • octal9
    octal9 Posts: 593 Critical Contributor
    Thank you, @Volrak :)
  • madwren
    madwren Posts: 2,259 Chairperson of the Boards
    Thanks, Volrak. Definitely appreciate all the work you've put in, not only setting up the data collection, but analyzing the results.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    No worries!  It's obviously impossible without the data from across the whole community, so it's a team effort.  I think d3go should publish their drop rates, but since they don't, this is the next best option.  (I also find it kind of fun, but that's probably just me...)
  • Azerack
    Azerack Posts: 501 Critical Contributor
    edited May 2017
    I'm happy to have been part of that contribution. I wish there was a way, on that spreadsheet, to show that 2 rares in a pack were duplicates. Just got a card I was looking for (Regal Caracal) and apparently because I wanted it SO much, I got it again in the "guaranteed rare" as well. :|

    I'd complain more about that, but I know I'm preaching to the choir, so...
  • mournfen
    mournfen Posts: 89 Match Maker
    For this set I am at 13 Premium Packs now and zero mythics. I would really like to see drop rates from them.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    mournfen said:
    For this set I am at 13 Premium Packs now and zero mythics. I would really like to see drop rates from them.
    From a little over 100 Premium packs entered in the spreadsheet, 31 mythics dropped (about 1.2% of cards).  The vast majority of those packs were opened post-2.10.

    According to overall measured drop rates, your bad luck of opening 0 mythics from 13 PP would be shared by around 1 in 25 players (4%).

    I still think d3go should implement a "pity timer" on mythics to put limits on the bad luck any one player has.  Curiously, the one place where uniform random appears to be subverted is on the opposite end of the scale - it seems that you may never open a 5-card pack which contains 5 commons; if that would happen, the 5th card is made uncommon instead.
  • mournfen
    mournfen Posts: 89 Match Maker
    Thank you Volrak I will keep you posted I have a fairly large stockpile of crystals and could open a few more PP. Is there a preferred method of providing information? 
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    mournfen said:
    Thank you Volrak I will keep you posted I have a fairly large stockpile of crystals and could open a few more PP. Is there a preferred method of providing information? 
    You can record per-pack data just by opening up the spreadsheet, jumping down to the first unfilled row of the 'Data' tab, and entering the pack type and how many of each rarity you got.
  • Dsagent
    Dsagent Posts: 73 Match Maker
    I am not sure if it counts for anything but I got a combat celebrant from the red pack in the vault. A mythic for 45 (I think) gold was a very good deal.
  • Steeme
    Steeme Posts: 784 Critical Contributor
    Dsagent said:
    I am not sure if it counts for anything but I got a combat celebrant from the red pack in the vault. A mythic for 45 (I think) gold was a very good deal.

    It's like the lottery.  You invested 45 crystals and got a mythic (grats).  99 other people invested 45 crystals and got nothing.
  • MarsDeon
    MarsDeon Posts: 18 Just Dropped In
    I had only one AKH mythic Kefnet the Mindful and I've got another one as dupe. Don't tell me about normal drop rate. I can't believe that.
  • Phase
    Phase Posts: 157 Tile Toppler
    Wow this data is so cool to see put out here. Thanks for compiling it all. More or less meets what my coalition mates have observed. 
  • damonsteine
    damonsteine Posts: 47 Just Dropped In
    i bought a 5 pack and they gave me the following

    rhonas
    canyon Slough
    deem worthy
    aven mindcensor
    Dread wanderer
    plague belcher

    happy as i am, something tells me card distribution is crazy 

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