Blowing the stash early because of 5* Starlord?

scottee

Am I crazy?

Starlord is so bad, does it make sense to open my 167 LT pulls before getting to 230-240?

Making a 5* character that bad makes waiting for so long and saving up so much seem like I just wasted 4 months of my life. I'm on schedule to get to 240 pulls in 2 months, but Starlord probably won't rotate out for at least 3.5 months, and there's no guarantee the following 5*s won't also be trash.

This is the problem with the 5* tier relying on RNG. You can work forever and still get screwed.

Around 8-9 more covers would bring my 1/1/1 Thanos to 11-12 covers, which sounds better than the other unpredictable trash.

So am I crazy?


EDIT: Conclusion 10 posts down. In short, I recommend it.

Vhailorx

Not crazy.

Basically you are weighing the value of thanos relative to starlord against the risk of a thanos nerf (and the schedule for a SL buff).

Thanos nerf is a possibility, but any SL buff will likely take a long a long time.  And both BP and HE have some fans in the 5* community, so even if thanos is nerfed into oblivion, you will still have 2 useful 5*s for your efforts.

NewMcG

I mean, numbers-wise, if you're looking to specifically cover SL, the SL-specific token will be a better use of tokens/CP. (10% of specifically him, vs 15% of any 5*, but only 5% for SL.)

But if you're looking to maximize return on your stuff on 5* in general, then waiting until he's in latest is (probability-wise) the smarter play.

Crowl

New McG said:

I mean, numbers-wise, if you're looking to specifically cover SL, the SL-specific token will be a better use of tokens/CP. (10% of specifically him, vs 15% of any 5*, but only 5% for SL.)

But if you're looking to maximize return on your stuff on 5* in general, then waiting until he's in latest is (probability-wise) the smarter play.

I think his point was that he doesn't want SL and was wondering if it would be better to spend on LL tokens prior to him moving into it.

NewMcG

Crowl said:

New McG said:

I mean, numbers-wise, if you're looking to specifically cover SL, the SL-specific token will be a better use of tokens/CP. (10% of specifically him, vs 15% of any 5*, but only 5% for SL.)

But if you're looking to maximize return on your stuff on 5* in general, then waiting until he's in latest is (probability-wise) the smarter play.

I think his point was that he doesn't want SL and was wondering if it would be better to spend on LL tokens prior to him moving into it.

You're right, I interpreted his intended message backwards. As someone incapable of hoarding, it's hard for me to wrap my mind around that kind of waiting, it appears.

scottee

Yep, Starlord is bad. Either the worst or 2nd worst in the 5* tier.

This is the new problem with the 5* tier. It's still bad that it relies on RNG, but now there's also no trust in its stability. Before, you knew that if you saved 6 months, there was a reliable reward at the end. Now, people don't know if characters are going to be changed, so it doesn't feel like a reward at the end because you're still holding your breath after so much commitment.

Quebbster

167 pulls might be enough to get one fivestar fully covered according to this: http://forums.d3go.com/discussion/55098/so-you-want-to-whale-latest-legendaries/p1 You're taking a chance since it may not be Thanos who gets thirteen covers, but on the other hand you won't get any Starlord covers either.
I plan to open my stash next weekend, but I am up to 250 pulls and have a decent chance to get all three covered. Once Star-lord is in the tokens I may start hoarding again until he rotates out, we'll see.

scottee

Looked at the numbers, and it looks like close to max Thanos is going to be better than any of the later 3.

Got up to 169 pulls since my post.

So 169 pulls, the expected number of each 5* character is 8.45.

I also realized that if I set Thanos as my bonus hero, I have an expected value of another 1.26 Thanos covers.

Which gives me just about the expected value of 10 covers I need to make him maxed champ.

Wish me luck! (All this thanks to letting me try the loaner Starlord and confirming how bad he is.)

NewMcG

scottee said:

Yep, Starlord is bad. Either the worst or 2nd worst in the 5* tier.

This is the new problem with the 5* tier. It's still bad that it relies on RNG, but now there's also no trust in its stability. Before, you knew that if you saved 6 months, there was a reliable reward at the end. Now, people don't know if characters are going to be changed, so it doesn't feel like a reward at the end because you're still holding your breath after so much commitment.

Agreed. I wouldn't know about the trials and tribulations of having a hoard, though. Just after having the conversation with myself about "I should save up CP and tokens until Wasp rotates out", (because I didn't want to pay 300k for 100 levels right as she's leaving tokens) I buckled and pulled 4 legendaries. 3 Wasp and a Spiderwoman. (Who is sitting at level 94, and toward the bottom of my priorities to level.) Well played, RNGesus. Well played.

scottee

Quebbster said:

167 pulls might be enough to get one fivestar fully covered according to this: http://forums.d3go.com/discussion/55098/so-you-want-to-whale-latest-legendaries/p1 You're taking a chance since it may not be Thanos who gets thirteen covers, but on the other hand you won't get any Starlord covers either.
I plan to open my stash next weekend, but I am up to 250 pulls and have a decent chance to get all three covered. Once Star-lord is in the tokens I may start hoarding again until he rotates out, we'll see.

Yeah, my hope is to max Thanos before he rotates out. Then since I'm starting from scratch on Black Panther and Hawkeye, I have time to pull latests to finish them. Then once they're maxed, switch back to classics.

I've already been waiting since Christmas. I can't wait another 4 months till Starlord's rotated out.

scottee

Update: I did it. Results about as suspected.

179 total pulls (10 were from champ rewards afterwards)

Thanos: 9 covers (1 from bonus)
Black Panther: 9 covers
Hawkeye: 6 covers

23 covers pulled for a 12.8% pull rate.


Thanos is now at 12 covers, so I have until the Starlord rotation to try to get the 13th.


Extra: Only 5 total Bonus Hero pulls (one was Thanos), for a 2.8% Bonus Hero rate.


I'm glad I did it. Got Thanos one cover away from max, and I have time to get the other Black Panther and Hawkeye covers.

The bonus to pulling early was that I don't have to put iso into BP/HE yet, so I could use more of the iso stash on the 4*s to waste less covers. I have 48 covers I can't use sitting in my queue now, with two weeks to decide to try to max one more.

This does highlight how vaulting screwed over the hoarding strategy though. Those 48 covers could have been on older 4*s, who I have a lot more champed of, giving me more champ rewards to cycle.

Vhailorx

Grats scottee,

I think it is a perfectly reasonable choice.  What build is your thanos?  Can you safely BH him?

And i am told that hawkeye is very usable at low cover values, so 6 should be useful in the short term too.  Not sure about BP's utility with low covers.

And how did you do on 4*s?  Do you have all 12 champed or will you have to sell a bunch?  Did you consider waiting for c&d?

scottee

I have 7 characters still not champed, with 48 covers between them. So I may get one more champed in the next 2 weeks. I'm not too sad on the extra covers, because I'm not going to use the rest anyways. Blade's maybe the one I'd like to save. (I champed Wasp last over him because I like tile buffing shenanigans, and I have Phoenix champed already.

Thanos is 5/4/3, so it's hope and pray from 1 more before he rotates out. 

Vhailorx

Blade is definitely worth it.  He has the odd match that totally sucls because no red.  But most of the time he is incredibly fast.

As for thanos, 5 black is good.  That is the most important.  And 2/3 viable colors isnt crazy for bh.  At least he isn't 5/5/2!

GrimSkald

I'm going to offer my supporting opinion.  I'm in much better shape - I covered Thanos a week and a half ago and stopped pulling to get my Iso back into shape (and level Coulson, who was fully covered with one cover waiting.)  I ended up with 9 covers in BP, 5 in HE.

Seeing Star Lord, I'm definitely blowing my stash before Thanos rotates out.  I'd rather have a few levels in Thanos (now that I've got enough Iso to comfortably max him in two weeks,) than more covers in SL.  The only thing that will hose me is if I fully cover BP, but at needing 4 that's pretty unlikely.  I hope to draw as much of these three as possible - if I can fully cover both of them (which I probably can,) I can then stop drawing when SL rotates out.  Or maybe, maybe fully cover him, but not level him.  At this time he doesn't look to be worth the Iso - that's a lot of Iso...

Jarvind

I spent about 550 CP as a mega long shot to get my 9-cover Thanos closer to completion. I'm now sitting on a 5/3/4 Thanos with a black cover in queue awaiting exchange by CS. Whee!

Vhailorx

I can almost match you jarvind.  I spent about 400 cp and 15 or 20 LTs trying to finish my 6-cover thanos.  (Is that a uber long shot?  What's longer than mega?)  Not quite there yet, but waiting on a swap for 3/5/3.  So close with so little time left!

And all probably just in time for them to nerf him next month. . .

scottee

When does Thanos rotate out?

TxMoose

I'm starting my current hoard early due to SL numbers and how he played on the loaner node in the miniPVE.  currently have 214 pulls.  thanos champed from last hoard.  so i'll be adding thanos levels over covering SL.  I'm just waiting for clagger to hit tokens.

Rick_OShay

Clagger gets IN before Thanos goes out? About when then?

Vhailorx

C&d should be in as of Thursday.  Thanos should be out two weeks from today, so may 15th?