Drop rates and dupes

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  • ElfNeedsFood
    ElfNeedsFood Posts: 944 Critical Contributor
    edited April 2017
    While the seed issue is interesting, I'm wondering why D3 can't just copy their Marvel Puzzle Quest game and show the drop rates for each tier and the vault system for premium rewards to avoid dupes in any given week / pull?  Even a little transparency will set you free!
  • EDHdad
    EDHdad Posts: 609 Critical Contributor
    Back when there was such a thing as a Big Box, it wasn't unusual to open a Big Box with two or more copies of the same Mythic or Rare.  They don't need a NASA Supercomputer to prevent this sort of thing from happening.  One solution would be for the computer to give you a different Mythic or Rare when it's about to give you a duplicate.

    The solution they came up with (stop making Big Boxes) reduces the possibility of pulling duplicate rares from the same product.  However, I'm not sure that it is entirely satisfactory.
  • kauppila
    kauppila Posts: 48 Just Dropped In
    Just a couple days ago I got a dupe Common from a Basic Booster.  If we just considered commons, and all cards were of equal chance, then the odds of this happening would be about 0.003%.

    Of course, just yesterday I pulled a dupe Uncommon from a KLD booster.  I didn't calculate the odds, but while I am sure the odds are better than my 0.003%, that just really speaks poorly of the seeding or RNG they are using in the game.

    I would love to see them re-roll dupes within packs/purchases, or even better, for all purchases within the same day.

    While we are at it, exclude all the basic commons that are given with the basic PWs.  No need to include those 50 cards or so in the pool of common cards.  We all have them, or would have them if we bothered to buy all the core PWs.  This would just help everyone.  It's like MtG when they got rid of the basic lands from packs.  Everyone has them and needs them, so why bother making them a card that you can pull in a pack.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    kauppila said:
    Just a couple days ago I got a dupe Common from a Basic Booster.  If we just considered commons, and all cards were of equal chance, then the odds of this happening would be about 0.003%.
    The odds of a dupe common in a basic booster are around 0.6% (1 in 172).  So everyone can expect to see dupes in a basic booster every few months on average, if they open two basic boosters daily.  Odds explanation:
    Let's look at basic boosters with 3 commons.  A first common can be anything.  A second common has a 1/322 chance of matching the first common, and a third common has a 2/322 chance of matching one of the first two.  The odds of a dupe in such a pack are 1 - (321/322 * 320/322), which comes to just shy of 1%.  The odds go down to around 0.6% if we consider all basic boosters, not just triple common basic boosters (~20% of cards in basic boosters are other rarities).

    kauppila said:
    Of course, just yesterday I pulled a dupe Uncommon from a KLD booster.  I didn't calculate the odds, but while I am sure the odds are better than my 0.003%, that just really speaks poorly of the seeding or RNG they are using in the game.
    Similarly, the odds of a dupe uncommon in any given KLD booster are around 2%, or one in every 50 boosters.

    D3 could certainly enforce no dupes in a single pack, and it seems that it would improve the player experience.  On the other hand, it would also increase the rate of new cards to players, when in the last update they seemed to be trying to go the other way.

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