RNG (IM)Probability

Scotcamp
Scotcamp Posts: 70 Match Maker
in MtGPQ General Discussion
After scraping up my 400 crystals for an elite pack, I look at the list.  Hey I only have one of the 8 so I should have a fair shot at getting something I don't have right?

Nope....got that same mythic, an Aetherwind Basker.

File a support claim and get a replacement pack.
Open it up with excitement and.....yep another Aetherwind Basker.

Complain to support and get a replacement pack.
Just opened it up,  yep, my 4TH AETHERWIND BASKER.

Now come on D3, what the heck is going on.  The probability of this happening is (0.19)^3 = 0.7%

Should I go out and play the lottery tonight????

Comments

  • Ekkias
    Ekkias Posts: 42 Just Dropped In
    It's pretty well established that D3's "RNG" code for pack drawing is noticeably skewed toward drawing dupes. Many of us have achieved a <1% chance probability event... 

    Also, of all the decent mythics in KLD they could choose, somehow Basker has shown up as an Elite Pack option for 2 of the 3 rotations? Me thinks they really want to push that PoS card into people.

    I'd save my crystals till Amonkhet next month. At least there should be no chance of a dupe.
  • gruntface
    gruntface Posts: 161 Tile Toppler
    edited April 2017
    Perhaps the cards placed into rotation are also based on rng. Hoisted by their own petard :)
  • nerdstrap
    nerdstrap Posts: 180 Tile Toppler
    I never even got reimbursed for my duplicates 
  • Ekkias
    Ekkias Posts: 42 Just Dropped In
    @nerdstrap their policy on Elite Pack dupes has changed since when you bought it. I'd reopen my ticket if I were you, and get your refund. 
  • Steeme
    Steeme Posts: 784 Critical Contributor

    You actually have a much higher chance of drawing Basker than one of the masterpieces.  The drop rates are hidden behind the scenes.  There is much speculation about the distribution of specific cards as a whole but we can all agree that the Masterpiece cards have a lower drop rate than Mythics.

    This is why I feel their marketing strategy is borderline deceptive.  They list the possible cards in the pack but they don't tell you what kind of chance you have to actually get any of those cards.  In reality the percentage is so low that you cannot possibly "expect" to get some of the cards at all.  But without showing the drop rate, players will draw their own conclusions and actually think there is a good chance.

  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited April 2017
    OK that's pretty bad luck. Worse than my elite pack experience. I got the marvel twice and finally the marionette Master on my third go around. 

    But, 

    A) masterpieces are not the same rarity as mythics, so calculation's off by a bit

    B) <edit post. I made a mistake. Sorry Steeme. >
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Steeme's post above is 100% accurate.  I think the forums (and any communication, for that matter) work best when we can take each contribution on its merit.
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    Volrak said:
    Steeme's post above is 100% accurate.  I think the forums (and any communication, for that matter) work best when we can take each contribution on its merit.

    You're right. I'll delete it. 
  • Scotcamp
    Scotcamp Posts: 70 Match Maker
    Steeme said:

    You actually have a much higher chance of drawing Basker than one of the masterpieces.  The drop rates are hidden behind the scenes.  There is much speculation about the distribution of specific cards as a whole but we can all agree that the Masterpiece cards have a lower drop rate than Mythics.


    As I've stated in another thread.  My ONLY expectation is a different card from the one I have.  I actually would rather have one of the other mythics in this group rather than a MP.  Really want Gonti.   
  • morgue427
    morgue427 Posts: 783 Critical Contributor
    i got aetherworks marvel on mine, new at least pretty ehh though and pushing aetherwind basker becasue it is one of the few that energize even though it is **** for 20
  • majincob
    majincob Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Ekkias said:

    I'd save my crystals till Amonkhet next month. At least there should be no chance of a dupe.
    Except you are just switching which product you get the dupe from. Like I bought Olivia... then pulled 3 more of her instead of any of the other exclusives I wanted from that set.

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