Heroes for Hire VS Heroic 40 Pack

bbigler

The best way to access a new product is by comparing it to existing products.  I noticed that the Heroic 40 Pack is pretty similar in prizes to buying 3 of the Heroes for Hire deals.  For the sake of comparison, I'll assume average champ rewards and draw rates.  So, here's the comparison:

3 x 3600 HP Heroes for Hire: 10,800 HP
3 Known 4* Covers
24 Elite Tokens
  => 7 x 3* Covers (includes 1 BH)
  => 18 x 2* Covers
30,000 ISO
9 CP

Heroic 40 Pack: 11,200 HP
1 Legendary Token => 1 Unknown 4* Cover
3 Unknown 4* Covers (95% chance)
12 x 3* Covers (includes 2 BH)
27 x 2* Covers

Heroes for Hire gets you 3 known 4* covers, 30,000 more ISO and 9 CP.
Heroic 40 Pack gets you 4 unknown 4* covers, 5 more 3* covers and 9 more 2* covers.
So, how much ISO and CP are those extra covers worth? Assuming 2*/3* champ rewards: 9,000 ISO, 150 HP, 5 CP

Conclusion:
The 40 Pack gets you more 4* covers, but they are unknown; I think players would prefer 3 known covers instead of 4 unknown ones (unless most of your 4*s are champed and you're building 5*s).  Plus, the H.F.H gives you about 21,000 more ISO and 4 more CP.  So, I must admit that the Heroes for Hire is a better deal, Brigby implied that this was a special deal and may not continue forever. 

bbigler

Let me add on the stats for the 2500 HP Heroes for Hire deal:

4 x 2500 HP Heroes for Hire = 10,000 HP
4 Known 4* Covers
16 Elite Tokens
  => 5 x 3* Covers (includes 1 BH)
  => 12 x 2* Covers
16,000 ISO
4 CP

In comparison to the Heroic 40 Pack, this would give known 4* covers instead of unknown, plus 7,000 more ISO and about the same CP (depending on champ rewards).

astrp3

I am interested in comparing Heroes for Hire to the old 20-item character vaults. Does anyone have an exact listing of what used to be in them?

SummerGlau

astrp3 said:

I am interested in comparing Heroes for Hire to the old 20-item character vaults. Does anyone have an exact listing of what used to be in them?

Specific 4 Star Token
3 Random 3 Star Tokens
3 Elite Tokens
1 2500 ISO
1 1000 ISO
Balance Random 2 Star

Zathael

You also should take into account the *chance* of bonus heroes that you would get with the 40 pack though.

astrp3

Summer Glau said:

Specific 4 Star Token
3 Random 3 Star Tokens
3 Elite Tokens
1 2500 ISO
1 1000 ISO
Balance Random 2 Star

Thanks, so given this and assuming you sell off your 2*s for ISO, here's the comparison I came up with (if you are still covering up 2* or have a 2* farm, your rewards under the old system would be better). My numbers are averages and may be off.

Old Character Vault - Buying for 3600 (average expected values)

1 specific 4* - 3.75 3*s  (3 specific, 0.75 random from the elites) - 6,813 ISO

Heroes for Hire - 3600

1 specific 4* - 2 random 3*s  - 11,500 ISO - 3 CP

Difference: HFH has 1.75 fewer 3*s (and no specific 3*s), 4687 more ISO, and 3 CP - I'd pick the old vault.

Old Character Vault - Spending 1000 at a time until you get the 4* (average cost 2500 HP)

1 specific 4* - 2.3 3*s (1.9 specific, 0.4 random) - 4,258 ISO

Heroes for Hire - 2500

1 specific 4* - 1 random 3* - 4,750 ISO - 1 CP

Difference: HFH has 1.3 fewer 3*s (an no specifics), 492 more ISO, and 1 CP - I'd probably still pick the old vault, but it's close. Of course, with HFH in this case you know exactly what you're getting while under the old vault, your rewards other than the 4* could be more or less than the averages I listed here.

One big advantage I see with HFH is that they change it every day, but they could have done the same with the old character vaults.

Crnch73

do we even ask... why is this even worth it?

Wobby

Crnch73 said:

do we even ask... why is this even worth it?

It's worth it. It's a ton more ISO. 

bbigler

Zathael said:

You also should take into account the *chance* of bonus heroes that you would get with the 40 pack though.

I did take Bonus Heroes into account, I'm expecting 2 x 3* Bonus Heroes from a 40 Pack.  The exact probability is 9% chance of 4* BH and 170% chance of 3* BH.  So, you're "gauranteed" to get at least 1 x 3* BH and a 70% chance of getting another.

I'm doing this comparison because I had saved 9300 HP and was planning to buy a 40 Pack in a week, but then I saw today's deal and really wanted to know which one was better, hence my analysis and post. 

bbigler

Summer Glau said:

astrp3 said:

I am interested in comparing Heroes for Hire to the old 20-item character vaults. Does anyone have an exact listing of what used to be in them?

Specific 4 Star Token
3 Random 3 Star Tokens
3 Elite Tokens
1 2500 ISO
1 1000 ISO
Balance Random 2 Star

The 20 item vaults were a much better deal to get 4* covers, but I think this new store will replace them.  We'll see. 

Keep in mind that you didn't need to pay 3600 HP to get the 4* cover from a 20 item vault.  I always bought incrementally, knowing that it would average out to 50%, meaning that over time I would average 10 pulls from a 20 item vault to get the 4*.  So, that cost is 2000 HP for a known 4* cover. 

astrp3

bbigler said:

So, that cost is 2000 HP for a known 4* cover. 

I believe the expected cost under the old vault pulling 1k at a time was 2500: 1000*.25 + 2000 *.25 + 3000* .25+4000*.25.

If you don't get the 4*, your chances of it on subsequent turns go up, but I think it still comes out to 25% chance for each scenario: 25% chance to get it on first pull (cost 1000), if you don't get it on the first pull (75% chance), there is a 1/3 chance to get it on second (1/3 * 75% = 25%, cost 2000), if you don't get it on the first two pulls (50% chance), there is a 50% chance you'll get it on the third (1/2 of 50% is 25%, cost 3000), if you don't get it on your first three pulls (25% chance) you will definitely get it on the fourth (25%, cost 4000).

bbigler

I previously started a thread called "Small Vaults aren't that bad" when we could pull 1 at a time.  It explained that over time it takes 10 pulls to get the 4* cover, which is the 50% chance.  Sometimes you'll get the cover before the 10th pull and sometimes after, but it will average out to 10 over time.  Reviewing everyone's posts and the average number of pulls it took, that was proven true.  It's much easier to calculate probability using the total pulls instead of adding up the probability of each pull.  Either way, 10 pulls is 50%, which cost 2000 HP, but I guess that doesn't matter anymore.

astrp3

bbigler said:

I previously started a thread called "Small Vaults aren't that bad" when we could pull 1 at a time.  It explained that over time it takes 10 pulls to get the 4* cover, which is the 50% chance.  Sometimes you'll get the cover before the 10th pull and sometimes after, but it will average out to 10 over time.  Reviewing everyone's posts and the average number of pulls it took, that was proven true.  It's much easier to calculate probability using the total pulls instead of adding up the probability of each pull.  Either way, 10 pulls is 50%, which cost 2000 HP, but I guess that doesn't matter anymore.

Sorry, but I still think your 2000 number is wrong. When buying from the old vault 1k HP at a time, it is true that 50% of the people would get the 4* in 2 pulls, but this does not mean that the average number of pulls would be 2.

Imagine if there were only 4 items in the vault. Then you would have an equal chance of pulling a given item on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th pull for an average of 2.5 (1+2+3+4)/4. Or, imagine there were just two items in the vault. If the average number of pulls needed were n/2 as you stated (where n it total # of items and you are drawing 1 at a time), then it would take an average of 1 pull to get the 4*, which is clearly wrong. It would actually be 1.5 pulls  since half would get it in one and half would get it in two. I think the general formula is (n+1)/2, not n/2.

So for 4 items, the average would be 2.5 pulls and, at 1k per pull, the cost would be 2,500. Same for the old vaults (4 groups of 5 items). Which would mean that the 2500 cost for HfH would not be more than the cost of buying the old vault 1k at a time (though I think it's still a worse deal because you're not getting specific 3*s in HfH).

For 20 items pulled one at a time, I believe the average number of pulls needed would be 10.5. 

Unless I'm missing something.

bbigler

astrp3 said:

Sorry, but I still think your 2000 number is wrong. When buying from the old vault 1k HP at a time, it is true that 50% of the people would get the 4* in 2 pulls, but this does not mean that the average number of pulls would be 2.

Imagine if there were only 4 items in the vault. Then you would have an equal chance of pulling a given item on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th pull for an average of 2.5 (1+2+3+4)/4. Or, imagine there were just two items in the vault. If the average number of pulls needed were n/2 as you stated (where n it total # of items and you are drawing 1 at a time), then it would take an average of 1 pull to get the 4*, which is clearly wrong. It would actually be 1.5 pulls  since half would get it in one and half would get it in two. I think the general formula is (n+1)/2, not n/2.

So for 4 items, the average would be 2.5 pulls and, at 1k per pull, the cost would be 2,500. Same for the old vaults (4 groups of 5 items). Which would mean that the 2500 cost for HfH would not be more than the cost of buying the old vault 1k at a time (though I think it's still a worse deal because you're not getting specific 3*s in HfH).

For 20 items pulled one at a time, I believe the average number of pulls needed would be 10.5. 

Unless I'm missing something.

This is already off topic, but even if I agreed with your 10.5 pulls instead of 10, that doesn't cost 2500 HP anyway.  Divided out, 0.5 pulls costs 100 HP theoretically, totaling 2100 HP. 

astrp3

bbigler said:

This is already off topic, but even if I agreed with your 10.5 pulls instead of 10, that doesn't cost 2500 HP anyway.  Divided out, 0.5 pulls costs 100 HP theoretically, totaling 2100 HP. 

Yes. 2100 would be correct if you were pulling one cover at a time and they cost 200 HP each, but they took the single cover option away from the single-character vaults a few months ago [plus, I think for me it was 50 HP per pull]. The 2500 number was for pulling five at a time for 1000 HP, which is the only option I was offered other than buying the whole thing for 3600.

As you say, though, it's off-topic, but I don't want to give the "it's all a money grab" crowd a reason to make 40 more posts saying the exact same thing (the 50 a day I have to read will suffice - yes, that's an exaggeration).