What COULD be the odds in Classics?

bluewolf

As we all look at the swelling number of 5's in the Classic pack, it becomes more and more dejecting to consider the possibility of fully covering any character there (unless you are close, of course). And we don't expect a change here. BUT, what if? Here's my question for those stat folks out there:

Assuming the current number of 5's (or +1 if you want to go to 12, coming sooner than many people want): What could the pull rate on 5's be and still be less likely to cover a character than the Latest pack? Could it go up to, say, 30%?

And yes, I realize that it SHOULD be more likely that you can use Latest (more expensive to pull) to cover a character. But how far behind the curve is Classic in terms of providing a viable method to cover a 5*? At one point, when they introduced the store, it seemed like the high end players would cover the newest 5's with Latest to get the newest toys, and Classics would let lesser players slowly finish older 5's. But now it seems like you should really just assume you will never finish any 5 that falls out of Latest, barring a radical change in things. Pulling Classics as a method to cover a 5 seems as smart as burning $20 bills and expecting that to be a cheap way to heat your home.

Anyway, I am curious about what that number looks like. And I'm not good enough at stats to figure it out, and don't have the time to research it. Thanks.

bbigler

I like to calculate the probability of token pulls in this game in order to educate people against their illogical gambling natures, so I'll take a look at this prospect: how many pulls does it take to fully cover a 5* from Classics? I'm sure the numbers are going to be ridiculous.

Classic Token 5* pull rate = 15% divided by 11 characters = 1.3636% chance per character = 1 out of 73.33 pulls.
So, let's assume that you cannot use CS to swap covers in Classics, so you'll need to collect around 15 total covers (assuming uneven color distribution).
But, let's also assume that you're starting with 2 covers of that character. Collecting 13 covers would take around 953.33 pulls.
But if you set this 5* character as your favorite, then you can gain a 5* Bonus cover every 133.33 pulls.
This brings down the total number of pulls to around 616 (8-9 regular covers, 4-5 bonus covers)
If you pulled 616 Classics, you would also gain an average of 8.4 covers for the other 5*s in the pool.

For another example, let's say your best covered Classic 5* has 6 covers, then you would need 9 more (assuming dups) which would take about 440 pulls (6 Regular, 3 Bonus)

The bottom line: you need 12,320 CP for 616 pulls (starting with 2 covers) or 8,800 CP for 440 pulls (starting with 6 covers). Basically, you end up paying to cover all Classic 5*s when trying to cover just one.

SnowcaTT

The odds went from:

10% SS
5 % SS 5%OML
5% SS 5%OML 5% Phoenix (I think? Or was it 10% at this time and went to 15% later?)

To...whatever they are now. They should have remained at 5% always. They should ALL be 5% today. If it gets to a point where that means no 4* in Classics, so be it.

mohio

bbigler wrote:

Basically, you end up paying to cover all Classic 5*s when trying to cover just one.

I was gonna write up some big example about this but I'll try to make it short and sweet. To me, this is the biggest issue with pulling classics to finish off a 5*. Unless you're "just 3 covers away..." for MULTIPLE 5*, it's just not worth all of the "wasted" 5s pulled. Getting those last 3 covers for 200+ pulls is ridiculous when you consider people are max covering all 3 characters in latest legends for somewhere between 250 and 300 pulls (given that they have a couple covers to start with usually). Even if you don't finish all 3, at least the covers that you pulled are for characters still in the latest legends tokens and you stand a reasonable chance at pulling more over the lifetime that they're in those tokens. Pulling 2 or 3 covers for a classic character that you had 7 covers for doesn't really make them much more closer to usable considering how many more pulls you're likely to need to finish them. Those pulls might as well be considered useless unless you're going to save up cp and buy the remaining covers, or continue throwing good money (cp) after bad and continue opening classics.

As for the OP - it's easy to see (and Snowcatt's post alludes to this) that for you to be able to cover a classic character at the same rate as a latest character (on a per cp basis), the odds would need to be 4% per character. So, that would mean 44% chance at drawing a 5* in a classic legend pack, increasing by 4% every time a new character was added. So, devs could double the current 5* drop rate in classics and you would still be able to cover latest legends at a faster rate. But since you'd only be covering 3 characters at a time in latest and 11+ characters at a time in classics, it makes classic tokens far too valuable except for huge whales that have all the classic characters maxed already and only have use for the newest 5s.

Pongie

bbigler wrote:

I like to calculate the probability of token pulls in this game in order to educate people against their illogical gambling natures

We have a thread where someone has done the maths for how many pulls to confidently cover 1, 2 or 3 5*s from latest. Granted this number is static and only who is in the 3x 5* changes. I would rather see the same maths done to classics. How many pulls to confidently cover 1 through to 11, and updated every time the pool of 5* in classics increases. That might be an eye opener.

Quebbster

Pongie wrote:

bbigler wrote:

I like to calculate the probability of token pulls in this game in order to educate people against their illogical gambling natures

We have a thread where someone has done the maths for how many pulls to confidently cover 1, 2 or 3 5*s from latest. Granted this number is static and only who is in the 3x 5* changes. I would rather see the same maths done to classics. How many pulls to confidently cover 1 through to 11, and updated every time the pool of 5* in classics increases. That might be an eye opener.

He did that too: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=57146&p=623012#p623012
Granted those numbers are out of date since Classic Legends now also have Black Widow and Dr Strange, so the current number is probably well past 600, probably closer to 700 at the very least.

OneLastGambit

you know if we just vaulted OML, Strange, Phoenix, and Goblin our odds of pulling the others from classics will increase dramatically!

Hendross

bbigler wrote:

The bottom line: you need 12,320 CP for 616 pulls (starting with 2 covers) or 8,800 CP for 440 pulls (starting with 6 covers). Basically, you end up paying to cover all Classic 5*s when trying to cover just one.

For 1/2 the pulls you can cover all 3 latest with customer service assistance, this is why hoarding has become the only viable 5-star transition strategy. A day 0 player can hoard LT for 10months and have 3 latest fully covered, how many 2 year players have none?

In the same vein as PvE grinding,

Brigby wrote:

...we feel that this just isn’t a healthy way to play the game...

Surely you don't want people to hoard Legendary Tokens for 6 months to "advance" their rosters? Frankly I'm feeling sick now.

Magic

So how long till the CS decides not to swap duplicates for latest? I don't give in much more run. The players were hoarding for months and now they are cashing in on the tokens. That means the CS has lots of work with the swaps. Soon this option will be gone. I wonder if I will be able to use it with my small hoard (nothing to write home about yet)?

bbigler

OneLastGambit wrote:

you know if we just vaulted OML, Strange, Phoenix, and Goblin our odds of pulling the others from classics will increase dramatically!

Don't be surprised when they start vaulting 5*s when there's more than 12 in Classics.

GurlBYE

I feel like they aren't many 5's off from it being somewhat reasonable to make late champ rewards (I'm talking 320~ish) for 4's 5 covers.

JablesMc

OneLastGambit wrote:

you know if we just vaulted OML, Strange, Phoenix, and Goblin our odds of pulling the others from classics will increase dramatically!

SHHHHHHHH!

stewbacca

Let's start with vaulting surfer and bsm...

shartattack

They should really add a classic vault. For 20 cp, get:
2 specific 5* cover (OML yellow, BSSS green for example)
18 specific vaulted (or new?) 4* covers.

you could buy the vault for 400 cp. I open standards as soon as i get them. I am the opposite of a hoarder. But if you are telling me that i could save up 400 cp to get 100% (or a really high percentage) of usable covers, i would do that all the time!
The percentage of 5s is lower, but you are trying to get a specific cover. It would also be great if you are looking at specific 4* covers too. I currently have a 2o% waste rate on 4* covers because that pool is so concentrated. I would stop opening, but I need to finish those same characters, but am missing covers and iso.

you could buy the vault for 400 cp. I open standards as soon as i get them. I am the opposite of a hoarder. But if you are telling me that i could save up 400 cp to get 100% (or a really high percentage) of usable covers, i would do that all the time! I would even do that vault with just 1 5.

GurlBYE

shartattack wrote:

They should really add a classic vault. For 20 cp, get:
2 specific 5* cover (OML yellow, BSSS green for example)
18 specific vaulted (or new?) 4* covers.

you could buy the vault for 400 cp. I open standards as soon as i get them. I am the opposite of a hoarder. But if you are telling me that i could save up 400 cp to get 100% (or a really high percentage) of usable covers, i would do that all the time!
The percentage of 5s is lower, but you are trying to get a specific cover. It would also be great if you are looking at specific 4* covers too. I currently have a 2o% waste rate on 4* covers because that pool is so concentrated. I would stop opening, but I need to finish those same characters, but am missing covers and iso.

you could buy the vault for 400 cp. I open standards as soon as i get them. I am the opposite of a hoarder. But if you are telling me that i could save up 400 cp to get 100% (or a really high percentage) of usable covers, i would do that all the time! I would even do that vault with just 1 5.

Expecting too much sadly.

it currently costs 720 CP for 1 specific 5 cover and 120 for a 4.

great middle ground would be halving (Maybe even going down 66% since 75% of the characters are vaulted) the costs of covers for vaulted characters and allowing the purchase of the first cover.