Iron fist token odds

adamdivine
adamdivine Posts: 136 Tile Toppler
edited March 2017 in MPQ General Discussion
With the advent of vaulting, it appears that the odds of pulling iron fist from tokens is the same as any other 4*. If true, that would be a significant departure from previous new releases. Is that true, or do your think the old 0.1% odds still apply. Also, does this mean diminished odds during his featured pvp over what has happened in the past?

Comments

  • GurlBYE
    GurlBYE Posts: 1,218 Chairperson of the Boards
    adamdivine wrote:
    With the advent of vaulting, it appears that the odds of pulling iron fist from tokens is the same as any other 4*. If true, that would be a significant departure from previous new releases. Is that true, or do your think the old 0.1% odds still apply. Also, does this mean diminished odds during his featured pvp over what has happened in the past?


    I'd imagine the same .1 applies. But we wouldn't know unless someone told us.
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,735 Chairperson of the Boards
    I brought this point up earlier re: PVP tokens, which offer an elevated chance of drawing the featured character, but do not show that on the odds display screen.

    I see no reason for them to change the odds as long as people buy these tokens. Whales gotta whale...
  • broll
    broll Posts: 4,732 Chairperson of the Boards
    bluewolf wrote:
    I brought this point up earlier re: PVP tokens, which offer an elevated chance of drawing the featured character, but do not show that on the odds display screen.

    I see no reason for them to change the odds as long as people buy these tokens. Whales gotta whale...

    I made a post about this as well. They highlight the character with a slight background color, but there is no indication of what that highlight means and what the odds are. Overall I like the new display, but they definitely missed some details here and there.
  • Rick_OShay
    Rick_OShay Posts: 765 Critical Contributor
    edited March 2017
    Since he's included within the ~1:15 group of the Venom Bomb store, the true odds had better be around the expected 6.67% - 7.14% to get a 4*, then 1/14 chance within that group (so 1/220 or so pulls).
    We understand that FalCap is 'highlighted' within this group so he has higher odds than the others within this pool.
    Could the devs possibly display a character within this pool and the true odds are still at the ~1:1000? I want to give the benefit of the doubt here and not assume they are this mistaken/evil... icon_mrgreen.gif

    Clarification would be excellent, since this potential draw rate increase would be substantial for a new character this early.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    I'm sure someone with a sandboxed account could do some studies of the actual pull rate...
  • firethorne
    firethorne Posts: 1,505 Chairperson of the Boards
    Your chances of getting it is less than 1% per pull regardless of which formula they're using. It is absurdly, insultingly low either way, so what's it matter?
  • DapperChewie
    DapperChewie Posts: 399 Mover and Shaker
    Alliance mate bought a 40pk and a 10pk, did not get any iron fist covers.

    So take that for what it's worth.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    DapperChewie wrote:
    Alliance mate bought a 40pk and a 10pk, did not get any iron fist covers.

    So take that for what it's worth.
    Something something statistics.
  • CrookedKnight
    CrookedKnight Posts: 2,579 Chairperson of the Boards
    Bought a single pull FOR SCIENCE!, got Mordo. Anecdote blah blah data blah give my a Medusa yellow dammit.
  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    I only see 4* Iron Fist in the Venom Bomb tokens, which give a 6.3% chance of 14 x 4*s, which means that the odds of getting IF is 0.45%!

    That averages 1 out of 222 pulls. So, you should get 1 cover if you bought 5 x 40 packs and 2 x 10 packs, which costs 88,000 HP! With daily deals, you could get that down to 86,600 HP. With the current HP deals, you could buy 3 Starks and 1 Asgard to get that much HP, which would cost $349.96.

    So, for $350 you can get 1 Iron Fist cover! Enjoy everyone! Aren't you excited about these new releases? Act fast, Iron Fist is now available in cover packs, head to the cover store now!

    Oh, is 1 cover not useful? Well, you could open about 3,300 Venom Bomb tokens to fully cover him instead (assuming a couple dupe covers). That would only cost 1,320,000 HP, which equals 51 Starks at the current deal, which only costs $5,100. So, who's going to be the first to champ him?
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,735 Chairperson of the Boards
    Um. There are whales that do that. I'm pretty sure. They definitely spend even more to have complete 5's upon release.

    Unless I am completely wrong. But I'm not saying it's very many people.
  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    bluewolf wrote:
    Um. There are whales that do that. I'm pretty sure. They definitely spend even more to have complete 5's upon release.

    Unless I am completely wrong. But I'm not saying it's very many people.

    Yes, some people are rich and crazy at the same time (tends to happen a lot I think) but for normal people, I'm insulted by the pop-up telling us to head to the cover store to get the new Iron Fist as if we don't know any better. The odds are ridiculous.

    There's also the explanation that some people are cheating. Yes, cheaters that have figured out how to alter the application to get what they want. Either way, people that have champed the newest 5*s are either cheating or recklessly spending money, which I have no respect for.
  • Twysta
    Twysta Posts: 1,597 Chairperson of the Boards
    It's demiurge. I can almost guarantee it will still be 0.1%
    The only way it wouldn't be is if it was a 'bug'.

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