Are Shield Intercepts and Bonus Heroes similar?

cooperbigdaddy

You know how some days Shield Intercepts work as expected and you get up to 20 videos a day for playing a ton of missions and then other days you don't get any Shield Intercepts, including the one you are supposed to get with the first battle of the day? When you don't get a video for the first battle of the day, you know there is something wrong and it's not just "a percentage chance on each battle, so you didn't luck into the percentage."

Do you think this is what is happening sometimes with Bonus Heroes? I know the percentage is low of actually getting them and the only time you are guaranteed Bonus Heroes are when you open a 3* in a Standard token, but I've heard people pull a ton of tokens, including 10-packs, and not pull a single Bonus Hero. Is this a confirmation bias thing or do you think there are some days the Bonus Heroes just short out like Shield Intercepts do?

There are just so many bugs in this game and besides specific covers in progression, the only way to progress is with RNG which doesn't always treat you right.

I realize Steam users don't get Shield Intercepts and I think that sucks too.

Bowgentle

It's 5% to pull a bonus hero.
Which requires that you draw a 3* or better from a token.

So on average you get a bonus pull every 20th 3* or better.

So yeah if you you have one or two 3s in a ten pack, you'd need to open 20 ten packs to trigger the 1/20 for bonus heroes.

Quebbster

Bowgentle wrote:

It's 5% to pull a bonus hero.
Which requires that you draw a 3* or better from a token.

So on average you get a bonus pull every 20th 3* or better.

So yeah if you you have one or two 3s in a ten pack, you'd need to open 20 ten packs to trigger the 1/20 for bonus heroes.

The odds of getting a bonus hero supposedly takes into account that some pulls simply won't yield bonus heroes. From standard tokens, every 3* pull should yield a bonus hero (because that's only a 2% chance but the only outcome where you can get a bonus hero), and from Elite/Heroic/event tokens you supposedly get a bonus hero on around 17% of the Three-star or better pulls.
But yeah, if you only get silver in a tenpack there won't be any bonuses.

GurlBYE

Bowgentle wrote:

It's 5% to pull a bonus hero.
Which requires that you draw a 3* or better from a token.

So on average you get a bonus pull every 20th 3* or better.

So yeah if you you have one or two 3s in a ten pack, you'd need to open 20 ten packs to trigger the 1/20 for bonus heroes.

That's very idealistic. but fair.

Shield intercepts occur much more frequently than 5%. And also have a limit per day it seems while bonus heros, you can potentially get an unlimited amount, but that's not happening at 5%.

cooperbigdaddy

So the idea is that Bonus Heroes theoretically could happen every time, but hardly happen because it's such a low percentage? But they "work" every day?

Can we all agree that there are days when Shield Intercepts don't work? Sometimes weeks? Would this be considered a bug that should be fixed since it's a new feature and not necessarily a percentage thing? Or should we just give up about wanting everything they promised us and just take what they sometimes give us with a thumbs up?

astrp3

"Quebbster wrote:

The odds of getting a bonus hero supposedly takes into account that some pulls simply won't yield bonus heroes. From standard tokens, every 3* pull should yield a bonus hero (because that's only a 2% chance but the ony outcome where you can get a bonus hero), and from Elite/Heroic/event tokens you supposedly get a bonus hero on around 17% of the Three-star or better pulls.
But yeah, if you only get silver in a tenpack there won't be any bonuses.

Where are you getting this information? Is it from something D3 said, or just speculation? My understanding (which may be wrong) is that, if you pull a 3* or 4*, you then have a 5% chance of getting a bonus hero - the type of token doesn't matter. You overall chances of pulling a bonus hero differ depending on the type of token, but your chance, given that you've pulled a 3* or 4*, are the same for all tokens. As for standards, my understanding was that they simply decided to award you a bonus hero every time you pulled a 3* and that it had nothing to do with the fact that the chances were 2%.

It seems like you're saying that they somehow adjust the chances to assure that you get a bonus hero an average of 5% of the time overall, but I've seen nothing from D3 indicating that and if it's true, all of the analysis posted here about how many favorites you need to have the same chance of pulling a given 4* as before are wrong. Personally, unless I see something to the contrary from D3/Demiurge, I am skeptical that this is the case and think that you just have a 5% chance of pulling a bonus if you pull a 3* of 4*. I know that some people were confused early on as to whether or not they applied the 5% before or after you got a 3/4* and thought that it somehow affected the odds, but it doesn't since multiplication is commutative (7.1% of 5% is the same as 5% of 7.1%).

Quebbster

astrp3 wrote:

Quebbster wrote:

The odds of getting a bonus hero supposedly takes into account that some pulls simply won't yield bonus heroes. From standard tokens, every 3* pull should yield a bonus hero (because that's only a 2% chance but the ony outcome where you can get a bonus hero), and from Elite/Heroic/event tokens you supposedly get a bonus hero on around 17% of the Three-star or better pulls.
But yeah, if you only get silver in a tenpack there won't be any bonuses.

Where are you getting this information? Is it from something D3 said, or just speculation? My understanding (which may be wrong) is that, if you pull a 3* or 4*, you then have a 5% chance of getting a bonus hero - the type of token doesn't matter. You overall chances of pulling a bonus hero differ depending on the type of token, but your chance, given that you've pulled a 3* or 4*, are the same for all tokens. As for standards, my understanding was that they simply decided to award you a bonus hero every time you pulled a 3* and that it had nothing to do with the fact that the chances were 2%.

It seems like you're saying that they somehow adjust the chances to assure that you get a bonus hero an average of 5% of the time overall, but I've seen nothing from D3 indicating that and if it's true, all of the analysis posted here about how many favorites you need to have the same chance of pulling a given 4* as before are wrong. Personally, unless I see something to the contrary from D3/Demiurge, I am skeptical that this is the case and think that you just have a 5% chance of pulling a bonus if you pull a 3* of 4*. I know that some people were confused early on as to whether or not they applied the 5% before or after you got a 3/4* and thought that it somehow affected the odds, but it doesn't since multiplication is commutative (7.1% of 5% is the same as 5% of 7.1%).

I got it from the amended bonus hero announcement, the first post of that very big thread on this forum:

Brigby wrote:

*New Update* How did we arrive at 5% for single packs? Here's Anthony from Demiurge with an exclusive drop rate breakdown, using Heroic Packs as an example:

Anthony, Demiurge wrote:

Let's take the Heroic Pack. You have a ~71% chance to get a 2-Star, a ~23% chance to get a 3-Star and a ~6% chance to get a 4-Star. When you open a pack, you have an overall 5% chance to get a Bonus Hero. The way we get to that math is to set the chance to get a Bonus Hero per rarity that you draw. When you draw a 3-Star or 4-Star, you have roughly a 17% chance to get a Bonus Hero. When you multiply the chance to get a cover of that rarity with the chance to get a Bonus Hero, you get the [percent] chance to get a Bonus Hero from any one pull from a Heroic pack (~4% for 3-Stars and ~1% for 4-Stars).

In other words, because 2-Stars don’t have Bonus Heroes available, the Bonus Hero drop rate is actually 17% for 3-Star and 4-Star pulls, and factoring the 2-Stars into the equation is what drops it down to 5%

astrp3

Quebbster wrote:

I got it from the amended bonus hero announcement, the first post of that very big thread on this forum:

Thanks, I totally missed that. That means that for heroics, you can have around 7 favorites and still have a better chance at drawing a given 3*/4* than you had before, and for elites, you could have about 8 - though for legendaries, you still need to favorite two at most to do so.