Shield of Justice Ten pack does not make economical sense

TheHueyFreeman
TheHueyFreeman Posts: 472 Mover and Shaker
edited April 2014 in MPQ General Discussion
I was just doing the math on the Cap tourney token when it hit me...

Shield of Justice 1 pack
- 200 HP
- 14.3% chance of Cap

Shield of Justice 10 pack
- 3800 HP
- 22.9% chance of Cap

So I would say that the 10 pack has the same cost as nineteen 1 packs. Now that we know the comparison, lets move to the chances of not getting Cap.

1 pack
- 85.7%^19 = 5.33% chance of not getting him in nineteen one packs

10 pack
- 77.1%^10 = 7.42% chance of not getting him in the ten pack

So spending 3800 on one packs gets you more covers overall and a better chance of Shieldbro covers. If this is the case, what is the point of the ten pack?

Comments

  • NorthernPolarity
    NorthernPolarity Posts: 3,531 Chairperson of the Boards
    You can only buy 1 shield of justice 1 pack per day.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    NorthernPolarity wrote:
    You can only buy 1 shield of justice 1 pack per day.

    You can buy as many as you want but only the first one is 200 HP. Subsequent ones on the same day are 400. So that will affect the maths considering this is a limited time offer.
  • Arogntbastrd
    Arogntbastrd Posts: 1,009 Chairperson of the Boards
    What they said

    Assuming you but all at once 3800 still gets you 10 packs (9*400 + 200) but your chance of no cap is 21.37% (.857^10) which is actually the same percentages as the Thor 10 pack had. See my post here

    viewtopic.php?f=7&t=4791&p=78327

    So this one pack is actually a good deal in that the percentages match former buffed 10 pack rates, and the new 10 pack rate is even better. However if you have atleast one cover of whoever you're fishing for and you don't need 2* characters, I'd still suggest just buying the covers directly.

    If you're feeling lucky and/or aren't already cover maxed in your 2* it's not a bad deal. Especially if you see that old 10 pack percentages of getting none was over 20! Now THAT made no sense. I'd like to think the hours of phantron and I spent clacking away at our ti89s caused this 10 pack buff. Like d3 saw we were on to them and thought "and I would've gotten away with it if it weren't for those middling kids!"
  • Spencer75
    Spencer75 Posts: 232
    It doesn't have to make sense.

    Individuals aren't always rational actors

    Additionally they usually don't have complete information. What I mean is they don't necessarily know those odds. Most players aren't on these forums.

    In fact the only thing that dictates whether this "makes sense" is this question

    Are people buying them (enough)?

    I'm guessing for D3 the answer to this is yes.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    The 200 HP daily special are roughly break even if you value the 3* at exactly 1250 HP value. It can be better if you value them higher (because you don't have a certain cover at all) or lower if you are already maxed on some covers (but then that'd be pretty risky buy to begin with).

    The 100 HP daily is obviously twice as good, but having every 3* eligible is likely to decrease the value of the 3* to below that of 1250 HP unless you literally can use any 3* cover you pull.

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