Some very objective numbers

Ohboy

There's been a lot of misinformation here the last two weeks. I've been waiting for community leaders to state these basic facts, but it seems they're more interested in fanning the flames, so here goes.

Myth #1 : trials of plane walkers is not worth the crystals

Not entirely true.

R = RARE
M = MYTHIC/MASTERPIECE
B = BOOSTER
J = JEWEL

Cost of 5 trials = 300c
Cost of premium pack = 300c

Assuming we never get perfect scores:

Average trials rewards = 5*(xJ+B) = 5B+5xJ, where x is the number of jewels you get on average per event.

Premium pack contains 5B + R

So entering the event for a week is the same as buying a premium box, except you've changed your guaranteed rare for some jewels.

In platinum, most of us will get 75 jewels from this(0.1875M). In gold, we get 45 jewels(0.1125M).

If you're the kind of person who thinks 5-9 guaranteed rares are worth a guaranteed mythic from a small pool of 5 mythics with a small chance of masterpiece, this is an excellent deal for you. People in this category should include those who already have a lot of mythics, and those who already have a lot of rares.

Otherwise, continue buying premium packs. This is an optional event, and nobody cares if you don't play it. No pressure.


Myth #2 : We were promised better drops. What gives?


Actually, what we were promised were packs that allowed us to get more rares.

Third the card packs we have done some balance tweaking to help reduce the amount of duplicates and give the player a higher chance at obtaining rare cards.

Note : we can't actually say duplicate rates didn't drop because no one bothered to collect data for it back then, or even now moving forward. If anyone's interested, please do it.

Octal's data puts the rare drop rate at 4.04%. Let's use this.

The old big box rare drop rate is thus :

70 * 0.0404R + R = 3.828R

Two premium packs now for the same price has a rare drop rate of :

50 * 0.0404R + 2R = 4.02R

Conclusion : we get more rares now, as promised.

losdamianos

Ohboy wrote:

There's been a lot of misinformation here the last two weeks. I've been waiting for community leaders to state these basic facts, but it seems they're more interested in fanning the flames, so here goes.

Myth #1 : trials of plane walkers is not worth the crystals



So entering the event for a week is the same as buying a premium box, except you've changed your guaranteed rare for some jewels.

and you wasted good few hours of your life griding for it with potential baral never ending loop
I'll take instant conversion through packs any day of the year

Ohboy wrote:

The old big box rare drop rate is thus :

70 * 0.0404R + R = 3.828R

Two premium packs now for the same price has a rare drop rate of :

50 * 0.0404R + 2R = 4.02R

Conclusion : we get more rares now, as promised.

Again this is only partly true, as per Volrak's previous calculation per 1000 (which btw are way harder to get <- this should also be taken into consideration) You get less mythics , common and uncommons (which noone is really bothered), which in reality means that drop rate got worse (objectively)

Volrak wrote:

Based on current drop rates from octal's spreadsheet, for every 1,000 you currently spend on 70-card big boxes with 1 guaranteed rare, you can expect on average:

• 1.1 mythics
• 6.5 rares
• 41.9 uncommons
• 68.9 commons

With the same drop rates, for every 1,000 you spent on 25-card premium packs with 1 guaranteed rare, you could expect on average:

• 0.8 mythics
• 8.1 rares
• 29.9 uncommons
• 49.2 commons

So we'd be better off with rares, but worse-off with mythics (and uncommons and commons.. which is irrelevant for high-tier players, but might not be great for new players).
.

Ohboy

Again this is only partly true, as per Volrak's previous calculation per 1000 (which btw are way harder to get <- this should also be taken into consideration) You get less mythics , common and uncommons (which noone is really bothered), which in reality means that drop rate got worse (objectively)

This is really a good example of the problem isn't it? The released statement was not about a player drop rates. It was about the rare drop rate in packs.

Absolutely no one is arguing that crystals have lost buying power. And this was also known before the patch hit.

buscemi

Ohboy wrote:

If you're the kind of person who thinks 5-9 guaranteed rares are worth a guaranteed mythic from a small pool of 5 mythics with a small chance of masterpiece, this is an excellent deal for you. People in this category should include those who already have a lot of mythics, and those who already have a lot of rares.

Well, how very objective. I've already dealt with the many reasons why I'll get a better return on my crystals by not buying boosters in already existing sets towards the end of their lifecycle here. But by all means continue with your false equivalence.

I look forward to repeating this exchange with you in other threads in the future.

Ohboy

buscemi wrote:

Ohboy wrote:

If you're the kind of person who thinks 5-9 guaranteed rares are worth a guaranteed mythic from a small pool of 5 mythics with a small chance of masterpiece, this is an excellent deal for you. People in this category should include those who already have a lot of mythics, and those who already have a lot of rares.

Well, how very objective. I've already dealt with the many reasons why I'll get a better return on my crystals by not buying boosters in already existing sets towards the end of their lifecycle here. But by all means continue with your false equivalence.

I look forward to repeating this exchange with you in other threads in the future.

Ah you're right I forgot to address the handful of people who have so many mythics it doesn't matter.

But I've seen people who aren't shteev say they'll use the crystals to buy boosters instead. Even if they intend to buy Kld boosters after the new expansion this applies because they can store the boosters.

My apologies. You're not always on my mind, but I'm working on that.

buscemi

Ohboy wrote:

buscemi wrote:

Ohboy wrote:

If you're the kind of person who thinks 5-9 guaranteed rares are worth a guaranteed mythic from a small pool of 5 mythics with a small chance of masterpiece, this is an excellent deal for you. People in this category should include those who already have a lot of mythics, and those who already have a lot of rares.

Well, how very objective. I've already dealt with the many reasons why I'll get a better return on my crystals by not buying boosters in already existing sets towards the end of their lifecycle here. But by all means continue with your false equivalence.

I look forward to repeating this exchange with you in other threads in the future.

Ah you're right I forgot to address the handful of people who have so many mythics it doesn't matter.

But I've seen people who aren't shteev say they'll use the crystals to buy boosters instead. Even if they intend to buy Kld boosters after the new expansion this applies because they can store the boosters.

My apologies. You're not always on my mind, but I'm working on that.

What am I supposed to do about you, eh, OhBoy? You've blatantly misrepresented what I've said, presumably in the hope that other people won't click through to my original post. I imagine now you'll report this post as some kind of personal attack in order to get me banned, like you usually do. And you know full well that any kind of personal exchange on the forum at all will result in us both being banned, regardless of context, as we've both been told so.

Honestly on some days it's very difficult to keep my sense of humour about you.

Matthew

Dear David [Hi-Fi] Moore,

I mostly avoid these forums. They are an echo chamber of frustration and dissent directed at a target that appears to care not a whit for the people making the complaints, even though they most certainly should care. But it is with precisely this kind of activity that D3 have painted themselves into their current corner.

In spite of that, I feel something needs to be said about your moderator commentary:

"Extreme negativity is never OK in the forums, regardless of any frustration you may be feeling at the time."

Specifically, I have to call your impartiality into question. As if Ohboy's comment history weren't enough, the fact that you and the other D3 employees turn a blind eye to the snide and negative commentary flowing from him on a near-daily basis is further proof to my point. You cannot expect me or any of us to believe you're a neutral party here when you have only posted your warnings directed to buscemi. There is a clear antipathy between these two individuals; the negativity is quite obviously flowing both ways.

Even more concerning is the fact that you consider buscemi's commentary to be 'extreme negativity.' Look back through the myriad of outraged comments from just the last week, and you will find things equally as negative as the sarcastic remarks you're referencing here, if not perhaps more so. Sarcasm is an unavoidable reality. You cannot honestly expect to purge it from the forums. That sort of dictatorial behavior will get you nowhere.

Which brings me full circle, back to the issue of your impartiality. If you want to maintain any form of legitimacy in the eyes of your customers (a feat that is arguably almost impossible by this point) then you need to be impartial with your warnings. Direct them to everyone, or don't issue them at all. There can be no middle ground. It only serves to further disenfranchise your customers (who are paying your salary!), and to make us all think certain forum-dwellers are on your payroll.

ZW2007-

Ohboy wrote:

There's been a lot of misinformation here the last two weeks. I've been waiting for community leaders to state these basic facts, but it seems they're more interested in fanning the flames, so here goes.

Myth #1 : trials of plane walkers is not worth the crystals

Not entirely true.

So entering the event for a week is the same as buying a premium box, except you've changed your guaranteed rare for some jewels.

Not quite. What about people who would like to buy SOI, BFZ, or ORI with their crystals? They've already changed all tiers' booster pack rewards to KLD so even the lower tiers are being saturated with KLD boosters. I suppose if you only ever want KLD boosters then the exchange rate isn't bad at all. I think this is the point Shteev is trying to make, we (everyone who plays this game) have been opening KLD packs for a very long time now, it is no longer in anyone's best interest to do so, even if you are missing lots of the cards. It is better to wait for the next set to come so you can get the new cards faster, which will allow you to meet objectives that require those new cards more easily, which means you will increase your returns sooner.

Ohboy wrote:

In platinum, most of us will get 75 jewels from this(0.1875M). In gold, we get 45 jewels(0.1125M).

Gold can only got 40 jewels max and if you lose 3 games, you end up with only 5 jewels from the event. I haven't done the event yet because I simply don't have the time so I can't say for certain but I'd imagine it's not easy to hit 50 ribbons 100% of the time. I'd estimate you could average 31-34 jewels a week in gold.

If you're the kind of person who thinks 5-9 guaranteed rares are worth a guaranteed mythic from a small pool of 5 mythics with a small chance of masterpiece, this is an excellent deal for you. People in this category should include those who already have a lot of mythics, and those who already have a lot of rares.

Ohboy wrote:

Otherwise, continue buying premium packs. This is an optional event, and nobody cares if you don't play it. No pressure.

Of course it's optional, all events are optional and no one can pressure you to play. That doesn't mean no pressure to play though. Perhaps you aren't hooked on this game and don't understand that it feels like you are missing out by not playing it and that feeling creates an internal pressure to play the event, even if you don't enjoy playing the event.

Ohboy wrote:

Actually, what we were promised were packs that allowed us to get more rares.

Third the card packs we have done some balance tweaking to help reduce the amount of duplicates and give the player a higher chance at obtaining rare cards.

Actually, what we were promised was less duplicates. Reducing the amount of duplicates and giving a higher chance at rare cards are mutually exclusive statements. The increased chance at rares comes from the guaranteed rare at a 300 crystal cost, down from 600. This doesn't imply more rares or mythics in a pack. It implies that we'll stop seeing multiples of the same commons and uncommons in single 5-card packs, which is something you left out of your quote. I have opened 10 single boosters since the update and in 5 of those boosters, I received the exact same card more than once. The duplicate rate still feels the same and neither you or I can prove it has changed one way or the other.

Infested

There are a few problems with you idea of value. First is that you assume that the player only wants what is in the trial. If I want Gideon this week then I cannot get him and play the trials. If it is SR that I want, then I lose two weeks. This goes the same for the value of Kaladesh. If I am missing a lot of SoI cards, then I will never be able to get the packs as I spend all my crystals on trials. This kills anyone who does not have past mythics.

The second is time. The people who are in the best position now are those who can devote time to the daily events and trials. The need to get crystals so the will have to do well in QB. If my time is worth nothing then this does not matter to me. If I cant put more than I have this is a problem. Most are somewhere in between.

losdamianos

Infested wrote:

There are a few problems with you idea of value. First is that you assume that the player only wants what is in the trial.

this is very good point which should be made clear to developers that new player is basically screwed as most of really good mythics from BFZ and SOI are hidden behind this timed artifical wall

Sorin81

Matthew wrote:

Dear David [Hi-Fi] Moore,
~you know what you said~

First of all it is very unlikely that your post to David [Hi-Fi] Moore will be read or answered by him. While buscemi's signature is a direct quote from him he has not been on the forums in four months.

Secondly, and I really hate to do this, I think you are outright wrong to think that the moderators here are impartial to any one person. While I almost always disagree with Ohboy I rarely see his comments as negative. He, to the point of being infuriating, always appears to put a positive spin on what the majority of the community sees as negative. Yes his opinions are skewed very favorably towards D3 and their business model and yes he will defend his position but that does make what he says negative just because you or I don't agree with him. In the last couple of weeks I have cringed every time I see his name with a post but I choose to look at his role here as more of a "devil's advocate".
Maybe I've missed something but I try to read every post in general discussion and the only warning I've seen posted was directed at both Ohboy and buscemi. It is true that these two are both opinionated and vocal with their respective opinions which can lead to intense exchanges riddled with sarcasm but typically this is done with restraint and respect from both parties.

Scolding D3 for turning a blind eye to snide remarks and then saying that attempting to purge sarcasm is dictatorial is contradictory.

buscemi

Sorin81 wrote:

First of all it is very unlikely that your post to David [Hi-Fi] Moore will be read or answered by him. While buscemi's signature is a direct quote from him he has not been on the forums in four months.

Hi-Fi was Brigby's predecessor. He has moved on to greener pastures.

Sorin81

buscemi wrote:

Sorin81 wrote:

First of all it is very unlikely that your post to David [Hi-Fi] Moore will be read or answered by him. While buscemi's signature is a direct quote from him he has not been on the forums in four months.

Hi-Fi was Brigby's predecessor. He has moved on to greener pastures.

Thanks for the info. I didn't know.

Volrak

ZW2007- wrote:

Actually, what we were promised was less duplicates. Reducing the amount of duplicates and giving a higher chance at rare cards are mutually exclusive statements. The increased chance at rares comes from the guaranteed rare at a 300 crystal cost, down from 600. This doesn't imply more rares or mythics in a pack. It implies that we'll stop seeing multiples of the same commons and uncommons in single 5-card packs, which is something you left out of your quote. I have opened 10 single boosters since the update and in 5 of those boosters, I received the exact same card more than once. The duplicate rate still feels the same and neither you or I can prove it has changed one way or the other.

The statement was "The card packs we have done some balance tweaking to help reduce the amount of duplicates and give the player a higher chance at obtaining rare cards"

Like I've said previously, the way they've apparently reduced duplicates is to reduce the purchasing power of crystals (meaning that disregarding bonus rares, the frequency of all cards opened is reduced, including duplicates), and arguably via the premium pack scheme; and the way they've increased the chance of rares is by giving a bonus rare per 300 crystals packs rather than per 600 crystal boxes. I've seen no evidence of any other changes (e.g. to the card drop algorithm) which would support the statement.

There's no contradiction here; more rares are being opened (and more duplicate rares) even as fewer cards are being opened (and fewer duplicate cards). But the vague wording seems to have misled some people, whether deliberately or not.

Astralwind

Lack of transparency in the drop rates.
D3 can say whatever. In the end, we won't be able to tell. Unless the community work together to contribute drop rate statistics.
But then again, why should we? We are paying to play a game and we have to do work?
Why don't the developers just be honest with us what's the drop rate? Too embarassing to reveal?
Worried of being labelled as greedy? People have already started calling it.

It's okay not to reveal the drop rates. Then educate us on how the drop rates have been improved to our favor. I don't see how the drop rates have been improved. I don't see how duplicates have been reduced. How? I am dumb. How to interpret it?

Sorin81

Astralwind wrote:

We are paying to play a game and we have to do work?

Maybe we should see if they'll put us on payroll.