What are the odds?!?!

Jonny1Punch
Jonny1Punch Posts: 440 Mover and Shaker
edited 2017 15 in MPQ General Discussion
All lengthy rants about my recent horrible 5* dry streak aside....... I recently did some buy clubs $$$ to beef up my classics and something awful and highly unusual occurred:

I pulled 6 straight 4* Riri Williams. SIX!!!!

Any number crunchers who can do statistics what are the odds of that happening ? Should also be known I've gone 1 out of 37 on classics and 1 out of 17 on latest pulls putting me at a pretty abysmal pull rate..... 2 five stars out 54 pulls and all that unwanted Riri action.

BUT 6 STRAIGHT RIRI'S?!!!! Ugggggh.....

P.S- zero bonus heroes either

Comments

  • qandols
    qandols Posts: 1,183 Chairperson of the Boards
    That is awful! On a lesser note I have drawn three 3* Luke Cage yellow the last couple of days (he already is 5/3/4). And no ISO to speak of. That is RNG for you.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    Rounding the chance of each of the 12 latest to 7%

    6 in-a-row = .000000117649
  • Punisher5784
    Punisher5784 Posts: 3,845 Chairperson of the Boards
    BlackBoltRocks wrote:
    I feel ya. My Xverine was something like 11/8/2 before I finally got that last yellow from Colossus to champ him (with ANOTHER green cover that was expiring)

    It took me nearly 3yrs to finally fully cover my XFW.. happened 2wks ago but now with vaulting I don't even want to champ him
  • WEBGAS
    WEBGAS Posts: 474 Mover and Shaker
    2 icon_lukecage.pngblackflag.png and 2 agent icon_venom.pngyellowflag.png from my 4 token_legendary.png

    RNG is seriously joking icon_e_sad.gif
  • AlphaNik
    AlphaNik Posts: 45 Just Dropped In
    When I said this game's RNG likes streams too much I was told that was me non understanding statistics (by the way OT question for english speakers, was my grammar correct?? )
  • klonewarrior
    klonewarrior Posts: 19 Just Dropped In
    Hendross wrote:
    Rounding the chance of each of the 12 latest to 7%

    6 in-a-row = .000000117649


    Time to play the lottery!
  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    The odds are 85% / 12 = 7.08333% ^ 6th power = 1.263066e-7 = 1 out of 7.9 million
  • halirin
    halirin Posts: 327 Mover and Shaker
    Were those your only 6 pulls? Seems unlikely. The probability of getting any given streak of 6 over a large number of pulls is much higher than the probability of getting a specific cover six times from only six pulls.
  • Jkirnan1980
    Jkirnan1980 Posts: 2 Just Dropped In
    I've also pulled 5 straight like cage yellow 4*'s. Something is messed up
  • udonomefoo
    udonomefoo Posts: 1,630 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited 2017 14
    AlphaNik wrote:
    When I said this game's RNG likes streams too much I was told that was me non understanding statistics (by the way OT question for english speakers, was my grammar correct?? )

    "non" should be "not", and "streams" should probably be "streaks" but other than that you have it correct. "Non" essentially means "not", but is used as the beginning of a word, not alone by itself. Nonsense, nonbeliever, nonlinear, etc.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    klonewarrior wrote:
    Hendross wrote:
    Rounding the chance of each of the 12 latest to 7%

    6 in-a-row = .000000117649


    Time to play the lottery!

    Not quite; 1:7.9M is significantly better than powerball 1:292M.
  • FaustianDeal
    FaustianDeal Posts: 760 Critical Contributor
    Were they also the same color? If so, you probably would have been better off using the $$ on the lottery instead of a buy club.

    6 in a row of the same color is "getting struck by lightning as you are being attacked by a shark" kind of odds.
  • maguirenumber6
    maguirenumber6 Posts: 457 Mover and Shaker
    I pulled five or six Agent Venom covers in a row recently. I don't have him rostered or plan to. Very annoyed.
  • Arimis_Thorn
    Arimis_Thorn Posts: 541 Critical Contributor
    Today I pulled my (conservatively guessing) 10th Peggy Carter blueflag.png . 2 of those were pulled in the last week. I can't finish redflag.png or yellowflag.png to save my life.

    I realize this is not the worst problem to have, but if I can't champ her, these covers are useless to me.
  • Fightmastermpq
    Fightmastermpq Posts: 995 Critical Contributor
    The odds of pulling 6 straight Riri covers is exactly the same as the odds of pulling an Agent Venom, Medusa, Peggy, Wasp, Bl4de, and Coulson cover in that specific order.....or any other gorup of 6 covers that you come up with after the fact.

    Your odds of pulling Riri on your next pull? The same 7% that it was on every other pull.

    The odds of pulling any 6 of the same character in a row is actually much lower at about 1:560,000, and in fact at 7 million pulls you are FAR more likely to see a streak of 6 than not.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    i_hate_math_will_make_you_mad13.jpg
  • AlphaNik
    AlphaNik Posts: 45 Just Dropped In
    udonomefoo wrote:
    AlphaNik wrote:
    When I said this game's RNG likes streams too much I was told that was me non understanding statistics (by the way OT question for english speakers, was my grammar correct?? )

    "non" should be "not", and "streams" should probably be "streaks" but other than that you have it correct. "Non" essentially means "not", but is used as the beginning of a word, not alone by itself. Nonsense, nonbeliever, nonlinear, etc.

    Thank you, i appreciate it!
  • byc
    byc Posts: 297 Mover and Shaker
    I had 9 straight 2* Human Torch one time.

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