4-Star Vaulting: Rates to Fully Cover (Light Math)

DesertTortoise

When a new character enters the 4-star rotation, you have no less than 24 weeks to cover them before they are removed and replaced with a newer character. The first column is the amount of covers you have accumulated before the character enters the legendary pool (from progression, placement, etc).

This is a timeline of 24 weeks (the least amount of time you will have to fully cover them before they leave the pool). In some cases you'll have longer with 3-star and 5-star releases pushing things back.



Pull percentage = 85% * (1/12) = 7.08%
Pulls per cover = 1/7.08%= 14.12

Let me know if any math is wrong and I'll update. Of course, 13 covers doesn't always mean 13 usable covers.

I figured this might spark a bit of discussion. I'm trying to make as much sense out of it as I can regarding the vaulting, possible log jams and the overall impact on older covers. I may also add a chart that calculates your CP intake and how long it will take until you can expect to get 13 covers for a character you only get covers from through bonuses.

Additional Charts:

Assuming you need 15 covers drawn to get 13 usable covers per aesthetocyst:

13 covers/24 weeks

Assuming a more conservative timeline of 36 weeks (the release time of Kate/Moon Knight) - thanks to Vhailorx, bbigler and broll:

13 covers/36 weeks:


15 covers/36 weeks:

Vhailorx

Since 5* releases generally replace a regular 4* releasse, i think most characters will end up staying in tokens for a bit more than 24 weeks. 28 or 32 seems like a more reasonable assumption.

DesertTortoise

Vhailorx wrote:

Since 5* releases generally replace a regular 4* releasse, i think most characters will end up staying in tokens for a bit more than 24 weeks. 28 or 32 seems like a more reasonable assumption.

My understanding is that 4-stars are released about twice a season while 5-stars are released less frequently but not necessarily replacing a 4-star release.

bbigler

DesertTortoise wrote:

Vhailorx wrote:

Since 5* releases generally replace a regular 4* releasse, i think most characters will end up staying in tokens for a bit more than 24 weeks. 28 or 32 seems like a more reasonable assumption.

My understanding is that 4-stars are released about twice a season while 5-stars are released less frequently but not necessarily replacing a 4-star release.

5* releases do replace the 4* release for a 2 week period.

broll

Vhailorx wrote:

Since 5* releases generally replace a regular 4* releasse, i think most characters will end up staying in tokens for a bit more than 24 weeks. 28 or 32 seems like a more reasonable assumption.

Kate and Moon both came out in June. So that's ~ 9 months since their release. so I'm thinking it may be closer to 36 weeks.

DesertTortoise

Updated the original post, appreciate the corrections. Changed the wording to be 'no less than 24 weeks' for the original chart and added some additional ones.

firethorne

Here's the bit of math I find truly horrifying, the amount of pulls required to fully get all 4* vaulted characters to 13 covers. For simple math, lets work with perfect pulls on both sides (no dupes, no wasted covers) to fully cover all of the characters.

Old system
32 characters * 13 covers per characters = 416 pulls. Absolute best case scenario under the old system.

New system
32 charcters * 13 covers per character * 20 (because your odds of getting a bonus vaulted character are 1/20) = 8320.

And even assuming you're not that luck with the old and super lucky with the new, and you end up pulling a bonus at an extremely high rate, like 1 out of 10, you're still looking at ~600 pulls in the old system, and ~4000 in the new.

LordXberk

I appreciate the chart and estimated amounts of CP needed to max cover a certain character, but my whole issue isn't whether I can max cover any of the newest 12, bcs I'm fairly certain I can. My issues are:

a) the initial ISO cost to level up the Chosen 12 which puts those of us who had just leveled up other **** characters to get bonus rewards back behind the ISO-8-ball (see what I did there?).

b) the amount of wasted covers will be HIGHER if I choose not to level up the mediocre characters bcs those covers drop more frequently

c) even if I bust my butt and spend all my ISO on leveling up the Chosen 12, they rotate out of the pot before I can really get any good champ rewards for them and then I'm sitting on a bunch of 270-290 4*s forever (well, I guess I'll get 3-5 of their covers thru events over the year). Sitting on 7 WASP covers and she's at Level 90 and will only be around for another 30 days. I'm just gonna sell those covers and leave her at 90 forever. Glad my 7 LTs became 7k ISO instead of a 5* or at least

d) what about 5*s!?!? If I'm required to put 380k ISO into new releases every 2 weeks, that doesn't leave a ton of ISO to level up my 5*s, so if I want to play with them, I need to put off leveling up 4*s, which then leads to more wasted covers.

astrp3

firethorne wrote:

Here's the bit of math I find truly horrifying, the amount of pulls required to fully get all 4* vaulted characters to 13 covers. For simple math, lets work with perfect pulls on both sides (no dupes, no wasted covers) to fully cover all of the characters.

Old system
32 characters * 13 covers per characters = 416 pulls. Absolute best case scenario under the old system.

New system
32 charcters * 13 covers per character * 20 (because your odds of getting a bonus vaulted character are 1/20) = 8320.

And even assuming you're not that luck with the old and super lucky with the new, and you end up pulling a bonus at an extremely high rate, like 1 out of 10, you're still looking at ~600 pulls in the old system, and ~4000 in the new.

I'm probably missing something obvious here, but wouldn't it be 44 (actually 45) characters and 572 (585) pulls under the old system? Yes, you could have done 416 pulls and not pulled any of the 12 currently vaulted 4*s, but the odds are virtually nil (after all, technically, the "best" case scenario under the new system is that you would get a bonus hero on every pull, but that's even closer to nil).

Assuming that I am missing something and that the 416 number is correct, under the new system, your 416 pulls would net you the 12 vaulted 4*s championed with about 22 additional champion levels each, along with the attendant rewards (including 2 LTs and enough CP for another pull for each of them), plus an older 4* of your choice fully covered and another a good ways towards it . Plus, you'd probably get the 12 new ones championed much faster an be able to use them and be competitive earlier, earning more covers and rewards from progression (though the amount might be negligible).

Overall, my first impression is that I'd much rather have 32 at level 270 than 12 at ca level 292, plus my top older one or two at 270, but I am not in 4* land yet. I also agree that championing all of the 4*s was much easier under the old system but don't know whether or not you need them all champed to be competitive. I personally want (or at least wanted) to champ all the 4*s and would thus prefer some changes to the vaulting, but that's because I'm a collector/completist. I don't know if I really NEED all the 4*s champed (depends on your goals, of course) - though having more 3*s champed has certainly been valuable

firethorne

astrp3 wrote:

firethorne wrote:

Here's the bit of math I find truly horrifying, the amount of pulls required to fully get all 4* vaulted characters to 13 covers. For simple math, lets work with perfect pulls on both sides (no dupes, no wasted covers) to fully cover all of the characters.

Old system
32 characters * 13 covers per characters = 416 pulls. Absolute best case scenario under the old system.

New system
32 charcters * 13 covers per character * 20 (because your odds of getting a bonus vaulted character are 1/20) = 8320.

And even assuming you're not that luck with the old and super lucky with the new, and you end up pulling a bonus at an extremely high rate, like 1 out of 10, you're still looking at ~600 pulls in the old system, and ~4000 in the new.

I'm probably missing something obvious here, but wouldn't it be 44 (actually 45) characters and 572 (585) pulls under the old system? Yes, you could have done 416 pulls and not pulled any of the 12 currently vaulted 4*s, but the odds are virtually nil (after all, technically, the "best" case scenario under the new system is that you would get a bonus hero on every pull, but that's even closer to nil).

Yes. As I said, my example was absolute best case for some math free from as much RNG as possible, so it also assumed no "new guys" drawn. That's why I also put in the last line, with more normal luck at ~600 in the old, but still 4000 or more in the new. That should be closer to a "real world" number, and still clearly a bad scene, in my opinion.