1:20 REALLY needs to mean 1:20 - Misleading Tooltips

Vhailorx

So whatever the orther virtues or vices of the bonus hero system, the odds tool tips for the various token packs are horrible.

Switching from percentages to ratios is less precise and provides no offsetting benefit.

And worse the stated odds are innaccurate and misleading. Heroic tokens report a 1:20 chance of a 3* bonus hero. But they will only produce a bonus hero IF one first pulls a 3* or 4* reward (a roughly 1:4 chance). So the real odds of a bonus hero are more like 1.25% or 1:80. Similarly, a legendary token reports a 1:20 chance of pulling a bonus hero even if a player only selects 5* favorites. The game clearly lists all possible bonus 5*s under the heading 1:20. But one can only pull a 5* bonus hero if one first pulls a 5* covers (a 15% chance). So a player really has a 0.75% (or 1:133.33 repeating) chance of pulling a 5*bonus hero.

Misleading information provided alongside a prompt to purchase digital goods is not cool! Please change this information as soon as possible.

Edit: as per updated info from anthony at demiurge, there is a 5% chance of a bonus hero for all heroic tokens. That's good news. But it doesnt completely solve the accuracy problem with the tooltips. 3* and 4* bonus heroes are still shown as having the same odds, which is not accurate.

Stax the Foyer

Some early data being reported makes bonus hero rates look like they're coming in closer to the stated 5% for heroic token pulls, meaning that if you get a 3-star or a 4-star from a heroic token, your odds of getting a BH are significantly higher than 5%.

If someone could clarify whether the behavior people are seeing is intended, it would be great. Otherwise, we should get a lot of data in the offseason when people go nuts with offseason packs.

EDIT: This was clarified by Anthony in the announcement thread. The actual chance is indeed 5% per pull.

Brigby wrote:

*New Update* How did we arrive at 5% for single packs? Here's Anthony from Demiurge with an exclusive drop rate breakdown, using Heroic Packs as an example:

Anthony, Demiurge wrote:

Let's take the Heroic Pack. You have a ~71% chance to get a 2-Star, a ~23% chance to get a 3-Star and a ~6% chance to get a 4-Star. When you open a pack, you have an overall 5% chance to get a Bonus Hero. The way we get to that math is to set the chance to get a Bonus Hero per rarity that you draw. When you draw a 3-Star or 4-Star, you have roughly a 17% chance to get a Bonus Hero. When you multiply the chance to get a cover of that rarity with the chance to get a Bonus Hero, you get the [percent] chance to get a Bonus Hero from any one pull from a Heroic pack (~4% for 3-Stars and ~1% for 4-Stars).

In other words, because 2-Stars don’t have Bonus Heroes available, the Bonus Hero drop rate is actually 17% for 3-Star and 4-Star pulls, and factoring the 2-Stars into the equation is what drops it down to 5%

firethorne

And also, if you don't favorite a 4*, and only do 5*s, the classic and latest draws display 1:20 for that set of 5*'s, which is also misleading, as it's 1:20 for only 3:20. So, it really should read 3:400, not 1:20.

It would be better to separate the bonus hero's by their star tiers, because the chances of you getting a bonus OML are not the same as getting a bonus Medusa.

Koffitok

firethorne wrote:

And also, if you don't favorite a 4*, and only do 5*s, the classic and latest draws display 1:20 for that set of 5*'s, which is also misleading, as it's 1:20 for only 3:20. So, it really should read 3:400, not 1:20.

It would be better to separate the bonus hero's by their star tiers, because the chances of you getting a bonus OML are not the same as getting a bonus Medusa.

If you don't pick any bonus heroes for a tier, you can still get bonus heroes in that tier, they'll just be random. So the odds aren't different than stated based on what you pick.

DrDevilDinosaur

Yeah, posted in the other thread saying something similar.

This could very easily see people asking for refunds/chargebacks when odds don't line up.

whitecat31

Vhailorx wrote:

So whatever the orther virtues or vices of the bonus hero system, the odds tool tips for the various token packs are horrible.

Switching from percentages to ratios is less precise and provides no offsetting benefit.

And worse the stated odds are innaccurate and misleading. Heroic tokens report a 1:20 chance of a 3* bonus hero. But they will only produce a bonus hero IF one first pulls a 3* or 4* reward (a roughly 1:4 chance). So the real odds of a bonus hero are more like 1.25% or 1:80. Similarly, a legendary token reports a 1:20 chance of pulling a bonus hero even if a player only selects 5* favorites. The game clearly lists all possible bonus 5*s under the heading 1:20. But one can only pull a 5* bonus hero if one first pulls a 5* covers (a 15% chance). So a player really has a 0.75% (or 1:133.33 repeating) chance of pulling a 5*bonus hero.

Misleading information provided alongside a prompt to purchase digital goods is not cool! Please change this information as soon as possible.

Let's talk about the 5 star pull in layman terms for people to understand and let's notice that new ~1:7 change to the percentage from a before mentioned 15%.
Because that 1:7 ratio is actually 14.25%.
In theory you have a 15% chance to get a five star.
So if you do 100 pulls, you should get 15 covers.
Using those odds, in theory 133 pulls gets you 20 five star covers. One of those 20 pulls should get you an extra five star cover.
So you would think that it is now 133 pulls gets you 21 five star covers. So you would think they increased the chance from 15% to 15.75%
OR
If that ~1:7 change is factual.
They reduced it to 14.25. So you need 140 pulls to get 20 five star covers plus the extra. So 21/140 =15%.
1/140 is ~0.71% but they took that ~0.71 away from your pull chance.
Translation our 5 star pull ratio NEVER CHANGED!

madok

Instead of the random chance, I would have loved if this was a streak-buster feature where every 20 pulls you get that bonus cover.

Pull a heroic, 3* and 4* counts go up by one.
Pull an LT, 4* and 5* counts go up by one.

Hit 20, get your bonus cover.

bbigler

How about someone just open 100 tokens and tell us how many BH you got? (and we'll see if the odds are closer to 1% or 5%)

Cousin Simpson

bbigler wrote:

How about someone just open 100 tokens and tell us how many BH you got? (and we'll see if the odds are closer to 1% or 5%)

Sure, just give me 100 tokens.

OneLastGambit

madok wrote:

Instead of the random chance, I would have loved if this was a streak-buster feature where every 20 pulls you get that bonus cover.

Pull a heroic, 3* and 4* counts go up by one.
Pull an LT, 4* and 5* counts go up by one.

Hit 20, get your bonus cover.

And within the same hour this streak buster feature went live everyone would complain that their streak buster gave them surfer black or bolt Yellow and they should definitely get the cover of their choice as streak buster.

Not a go at you, forumites (some) are not reasonable.

HaywireII

I opened 30 today.

26 and 4 bonus heroes
4 and 1 bonus hero.

bbigler

Cousin Simpson wrote:

bbigler wrote:

How about someone just open 100 tokens and tell us how many BH you got? (and we'll see if the odds are closer to 1% or 5%)

Sure, just give me 100 tokens.

Sure, just wait 5 days and I'll have 100+

IamTheDanger

Cousin Simpson wrote:

bbigler wrote:

How about someone just open 100 tokens and tell us how many BH you got? (and we'll see if the odds are closer to 1% or 5%)

Sure, just give me 100 tokens.

Opened 96. And only one of them was a 5*.

But as for Bonus Heroes, out of 96 pulls, (with Goblin, Phoenix, Riri, Peggy, 3thanos, 3strange as favorites), I got ONE SINGLE BONUS HERO !

Out of 96 pulls, only ONE!

smkspy

IamTheDanger wrote:

Cousin Simpson wrote:

bbigler wrote:

How about someone just open 100 tokens and tell us how many BH you got? (and we'll see if the odds are closer to 1% or 5%)

Sure, just give me 100 tokens.

Opened 96. And only one of them was a 5*.

But as for Bonus Heroes, out of 96 pulls, (with Goblin, Phoenix, Riri, Peggy, 3thanos, 3strange as favorites), I got ONE SINGLE BONUS HERO !

Out of 96 pulls, only ONE!

This is where this whole thing will fall apart. RNG on top of rng.

The odds aren't really 1 in 20 if the damn counter resets every time we draw a new token.

IamTheDanger

smkspy wrote:

IamTheDanger wrote:

Cousin Simpson wrote:

bbigler wrote:

How about someone just open 100 tokens and tell us how many BH you got? (and we'll see if the odds are closer to 1% or 5%)

Sure, just give me 100 tokens.

Opened 96. And only one of them was a 5*.

But as for Bonus Heroes, out of 96 pulls, (with Goblin, Phoenix, Riri, Peggy, 3thanos, 3strange as favorites), I got ONE SINGLE BONUS HERO !

Out of 96 pulls, only ONE!

This is where this whole thing will fall apart. RNG on top of rng.

The odds aren't really 1 in 20 if the damn counter resets every time we draw a new token.

It's not just RNG on top of RNG. It's a 1 of 3 colors from an RNG on top of RNG.

astrp3

whitecat31 wrote:

Because that 1:7 ratio is actually 14.25%.
If that ~1:7 change is factual.

I'm probably missing something here, but you are aware that the "~" means "approximately" right?
I would assume that they just rounded it from 1:6.666... to 1:7.

And I'm not sure where this "~1:7" appears - is it on the tooltip for the PC version? When I click the Info button on my iPad version, it says "15.0%."

carrion_pigeons

The best part of this change is people complaining about odds without even reading the material about the odds first.

whitecat31

astrp3 wrote:

whitecat31 wrote:

Because that 1:7 ratio is actually 14.25%.
If that ~1:7 change is factual.

I'm probably missing something here, but you are aware that the "~" means "approximately" right?
I would assume that they just rounded it from 1:6.666... to 1:7.

And I'm not sure where this "~1:7" appears - is it on the tooltip for the PC version? When I click the Info button on my iPad version, it says "15.0%."

The "3:20" and "~1:7" are both 4 characters they take up the same amount of space.

Coubii

1:20 really mean 1:20.
Labelling has changed, but that's the same: For each token you have a 1:20 chance. 5% like previously.

Xenoberyll

This is extra exiting for people who's RNG sucks. And not exiting in a good way.

carlito666

i've opened 20 classics and got 4x Strang3 as Bonus