What are the odds...

DragonSorcerer

Can someone who knows the drop rates and is good at maths work out the odds of what happened to me yesterday ...

opened a single KLD booster (450 points prize from the day before), pulled Solemn Recruit (already a duplicate but that's irrelevant for this)

prize for coalition in top 100 : Solemn Recruit

opened a single KLD booster (prize for yesyterdays event), pulled, yes you guessed it, Solemn Recruit

Did I have a better chance of winning the lottery ?

Machine

I'm happy to trade one against one of my three Oath of Ajanis.

Schlemoc

I opened a fat pack and drew a dynabolt then a gontis. Id say thats hitting the lottery.

Definitely sympathize since i tend to see the same ones at the same time though. May be limited cards for different things?

THEMAGICkMAN

i have one non-exclusive AER rare, and heres the story:

coalition reward for first RatC: quicksmith spy

some prize booster i got from something: quicksmith spy

individual reward for some event: quicksmith spy

coalition reward for RatC2: quicksmith spy

some other booster reward: quicksmith spy.

i still have one non-exclusive AER rare. (of course dupes don't count, and i have SExterpiece and KExterpiece)

the odds of that have to be impressive.

Volrak

DragonSorcerer wrote:

Can someone who knows the drop rates and is good at maths work out the odds of what happened to me yesterday ...

opened a single KLD booster (450 points prize from the day before), pulled Solemn Recruit (already a duplicate but that's irrelevant for this)

prize for coalition in top 100 : Solemn Recruit

opened a single KLD booster (prize for yesyterdays event), pulled, yes you guessed it, Solemn Recruit

Did I have a better chance of winning the lottery ?

If you open an AER rare, then the probability that the next two rares from an AER reward event and a KLD pack will be the same card is: 1 (any AER card) x 1/12 (matching non-exclusive AER) x 1/52 (matching KLD + non-exclusive AER). This is 0.16%; about one in 600.

Framed differently, the probability of the next two (non-exclusive) AER rares you get being the same card as the first one is 1/12 x 1/12, or one in 144.

Framed differently again, combining your good and bad luck (this is less meaningful), the odds of opening an AER rare from a consecutive pack which is the same a rare from your previous pack, and the same as a given AER event reward goes to about 1 in 16,000.

In either case, certainly unlucky, but the probability of winning the jackpot in a lottery is more like one in a hundred million.

THEMAGICkMAN wrote:

i have one non-exclusive AER rare, and heres the story:

coalition reward for first RatC: quicksmith spy

some prize booster i got from something: quicksmith spy

individual reward for some event: quicksmith spy

coalition reward for RatC2: quicksmith spy

some other booster reward: quicksmith spy.

i still have one non-exclusive AER rare. (of course dupes don't count, and i have SExterpiece and KExterpiece)

the odds of that have to be impressive.

If you get an AER rare, the probability that the next four (non-exclusive) AER rares you get are the same card is 1 x 1/12 x 1/12 x 1/12 x 1/12, which is about one in 20,000. I would call that impressively unlucky, even though it's still about 5,000 times more likely than winning the lottery.

I think that enough rares have been given out that it's expected that this would have happened to somebody... but that doesn't help the feel-bad when it happens to you.