25hp reward from standard token is gone.

Unknown
Unknown
edited April 2014 in MPQ General Discussion
I had a very big stack of standard tokens, a little bit over 150, and just finished opening them all. I got a bunch of 3* characters, but no 25hp rewards. Pretty sure they're gone.
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Comments

  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I don't know how I feel about this if it's true.

    Thanks for doing the legwork.

    Hope your 3* were what you wanted. Personally I can't imagine saving up that many tokens. I open them 3 at a time.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I got one a couple of days ago...
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Microtom wrote:
    I had a very big stack of standard tokens, a little bit over 150, and just finished opening them all. I got a bunch of 3* characters, but no 25hp rewards. Pretty sure they're gone.

    I have the impression there is <1% chance. Serms like rng just wasnt leaning in you favor.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I got 2 yesterday so don't think they are gone
  • Droc76
    Droc76 Posts: 56
    I got one yesterday. It has been awhile since I've gotten a 3* from a standard token. I usually get 1-2 a week. Glad to see you got a couple. I was starting to think they changed the output of those.
  • mischiefmaker
    mischiefmaker Posts: 932
    At our currently spaded rate of 2.25%, the chance of opening 150 tokens and not getting any hp is 3.3%, so I think you were just unlucky (or lucky, depending on how you look at it).
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I will keep an eye out when unwrapping my LR tokens en masse tomorrow.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    mischiefmaker wrote:
    the chance of opening 150 tokens and not getting any hp is 3.3%, so I think you were just unlucky

    So my 95% chance of certainty was pretty damn accurate!
  • poomermon
    poomermon Posts: 300 Mover and Shaker
    Microtom wrote:
    mischiefmaker wrote:
    the chance of opening 150 tokens and not getting any hp is 3.3%, so I think you were just unlucky

    So my 95% chance of certainty was pretty damn accurate!

    The odds of flipping a coin 5 times and getting 5 heads is also about 3%. That does not mean you can say you are 95% certain that tails does not exist.
  • Twysta
    Twysta Posts: 1,597 Chairperson of the Boards
    It's just karma Tom icon_e_wink.gif

    icon_rolleyes.gif
  • mischiefmaker
    mischiefmaker Posts: 932
    poomermon wrote:
    The odds of flipping a coin 5 times and getting 5 heads is also about 3%. That does not mean you can say you are 95% certain that tails does not exist.
    Well...it kinda does, doesn't it? The only reason it doesn't is because you can physically flip the coin over and see that there is tails on the back, which means you have information other than the results of the flipping.

    Imagine instead of a coin, I tell you that I have a program that will output either the word "HEADS" or the word "TAILS" with exactly 50% probability. However, there might be a bug in the program where it only produces HEADS. I ask you to test my program. You run it five times and it produces HEADS every time. Are you now 95% certain my program has a bug in it? If not, why not? If so, isn't this the same situation as Microtom being 97% sure there's no more 25 hp reward?
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    but the real question is has anyone in the ~21 hours since he has posted this gotten 25 hp from a token? If yes then we have confirmation and I can advise Microtom to avoid lotteries for a little while. If all of us are shaking our heads being unable to confirm the last 25 hp we got from a token then what does that tell us?
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Cryptobrancus wrote:
    but the real question is has anyone in the ~21 hours since he has posted this gotten 25 hp from a token? If yes then we have confirmation and I can advise Microtom to avoid lotteries for a little while. If all of us are shaking our heads being unable to confirm the last 25 hp we got from a token then what does that tell us?


    They're gone! They're all gone! icon_e_surprised.gificon_e_surprised.gif
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Microtom wrote:
    Cryptobrancus wrote:
    but the real question is has anyone in the ~21 hours since he has posted this gotten 25 hp from a token? If yes then we have confirmation and I can advise Microtom to avoid lotteries for a little while. If all of us are shaking our heads being unable to confirm the last 25 hp we got from a token then what does that tell us?


    They're gone! They're all gone!

    OK everyone may now proceed to panic
  • poomermon
    poomermon Posts: 300 Mover and Shaker
    mischiefmaker wrote:
    Well...it kinda does, doesn't it? The only reason it doesn't is because you can physically flip the coin over and see that there is tails on the back, which means you have information other than the results of the flipping.

    Imagine instead of a coin, I tell you that I have a program that will output either the word "HEADS" or the word "TAILS" with exactly 50% probability. However, there might be a bug in the program where it only produces HEADS. I ask you to test my program. You run it five times and it produces HEADS every time. Are you now 95% certain my program has a bug in it? If not, why not? If so, isn't this the same situation as Microtom being 97% sure there's no more 25 hp reward?

    I was more like putting the ops statement into perspective. 5 coin flips is a minuscule sample size and therefore you cannot draw any conclusions from it. It is the same with 150 standard token pulls as that sample size is equally worthless compared to probability of getting a 25 hp reward.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    poomermon wrote:
    mischiefmaker wrote:
    Well...it kinda does, doesn't it? The only reason it doesn't is because you can physically flip the coin over and see that there is tails on the back, which means you have information other than the results of the flipping.

    Imagine instead of a coin, I tell you that I have a program that will output either the word "HEADS" or the word "TAILS" with exactly 50% probability. However, there might be a bug in the program where it only produces HEADS. I ask you to test my program. You run it five times and it produces HEADS every time. Are you now 95% certain my program has a bug in it? If not, why not? If so, isn't this the same situation as Microtom being 97% sure there's no more 25 hp reward?

    I was more like putting the ops statement into perspective. 5 coin flips is a minuscule sample size and therefore you cannot draw any conclusions from it. It is the same with 150 standard token pulls as that sample size is equally worthless compared to probability of getting a 25 hp reward.


    What would you need, 10,000 pulls?
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Omg, everyone open your standard tokens, now! We need a bigger sample!
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I got a 25 hp yesterday. Can confirm was not gone at 5 pm Pst Thursday.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Cryptobrancus wrote:
    but the real question is has anyone in the ~21 hours since he has posted this gotten 25 hp from a token? If yes then we have confirmation and I can advise Microtom to avoid lotteries for a little while. If all of us are shaking our heads being unable to confirm the last 25 hp we got from a token then what does that tell us?

    Nope, he used up his bad luck on MPQ related losses so that means that if he played the lottery right now, his chances of winning are higher, since good luck has to cancel bad luck
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    No from 37 pulls and no 3* from 7 Courageous tokens. I did get a red X-Force Wolverine from one, but that just made me more upset.

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