What are the odds of pulling a specific colored 5* cover?

Tilesmasher

I have a 4/3/4 OML and I'm at day 965, in a few months I'll have the 4th yellow via daily supply rewards.

I'm wondering if I should start saving now so when I get the free one in 4 months I can buy what at that point would be my final OML cover, or keep pulling 20 at a time and hope for the best?

Are the percentages skewed so horribly at this point it would make more sense to save the cp up?

stochasticism

.56%, roughly requiring an average of 180 pulls (for now), to get one specific color for a 5* in classics. But that's not what you need. With a yellow you will be 4/4/4 and can use any color. So the full 1.67% draw rate will benefit you, meaning you only need 60 pulls on average to get that last OML.

Spiritclaw

If you want a fully covered OML, and you know you'll be 4/4/4 through shield resupply, then any color cover will do for your last one. I'd recommend against using cp for the last cover under those circumstances.

BatteryHorse

I think the odds of getting an OML from a classic pull is 1.7%, according to the index in the app. In your case literally any cover will do in order to champ him, so it's a 1.7% chance. Someone smarter than me can do the math, but I think that would require an average of about 59 pulls, but I'm not very smart.

If, on the extraordinarily thin chance I'm in the right ballpark, you're looking at about 1200 cp to pull that many times. You might get lucky and get an OML earlier, or maybe RNG hates you.

If it's me, I just save the CP and buy the cover. If you play all events you can put together 720cp pretty quickly. Of course, if you pull 60 times you'll get a bunch of 4's and likely a few 5's, so it's really about your roster and your goals.

mohio

Keep in mind this is all going to change in roughly 2 weeks time as 5* widow will rotate into classic LTs. With 10 characters there, that's down to now 1.5% for any given character. So you're up to about 67 pulls on average. If you wait those couple of months, either to save up or to champ more 4* or whatever it will only get worse (74 pulls, then 80). In the end it will always be "cheaper" on average to straight up buy the cover, but you will also be missing out on quite a large amount of 4* champion rewards and other potentially usable 5* covers. If you still have a lot of "useless" covers (4*/5* covers at 5 but undercovered, or max covered but no iso to champion), then buying it outright might make some sense. But if most of those covers are usable then throwing away all that value just seems bad (but might still be worth it).

Tilesmasher

All my 3s are champed. I have all the "good" 4s (the top 15) champed and need about 70 covers to cover max the rest of my 4 stars, mostly the recently released or bottom feeder characters.

I guess I'll start saving, hopefully by the day I get the free Yellow cover I'll have the 720cp.

dr tinykittylove

Tilesmasher wrote:

All my 3s are champed. I have all the "good" 4s (the top 15) champed and need about 70 covers to cover max the rest of my 4 stars, mostly the recently released or bottom feeder characters.

I guess I'll start saving, hopefully by the day I get the free Yellow cover I'll have the 720cp.

Given your situation, where any oml cover would be useful, and lots of needed 4* covers, I would say don't buy the cover. Focus on building the 4*s and let the cover come when it does.

DaveR4470

Slim. Slim.

dr tinykittylove

aesthetocyst wrote:

Tilesmasher wrote:

I have a 4/3/4 OML and I'm at day 965, in a few months I'll have the 4th yellow via daily supply rewards.

I'm wondering if I should start saving now so when I get the free one in 4 months I can buy what at that point would be my final OML cover, or keep pulling 20 at a time and hope for the best?

Are the percentages skewed so horribly at this point it would make more sense to save the cp up?

If you're going to have a 444, it makes littel sense to pay 720cp for the final cover .... Literally any draw works ... UNLESS you're in a YUGE hurry for OML.

But why would you be? You shouldn'y have any covers dying on the vine ....

My Gobby is in the same situation, waiting at 444. He can wait.

My both on the other hand, is 551. Ouch.

Odds are 2/3 against me of pulling the 'right' bolt. Even slimmer that I would pull 2 yellows before any other color.

What would almost certainly happen is I would pull the 'wrong' color, and that would expire before I pulled the right color, UNLESS I had saved an enormous hoard and was just opening until the right color dropped twice. Enormous as in several hundred pulls (thanks, dilution).

In the case of my Bolt, it's FAR cheaper to save up 1440 and CP-whale him. So I am. Halfway there as of today.

Good luck on those continued pulls. I hope to join you in a months or so.

But if you do pull a dupe, that's just 20cp. No different from pulling a Fantastic or Elektra except for the aggravation. Bolt is nice but not absolutely vital, and you already have the righr covers where it counts (green/black).

If you already have a couple of functional 5*s and can hit full progession when you want, I'd argue you get far more value out of offering up burnt cp sacrifices to Rngesus and champing whatever he sends your way. You build up momentum over time, and get more cp/lts/usable4-5*s in the long run.

Swish

Tilesmasher wrote:

I have a 4/3/4 OML and I'm at day 965, in a few months I'll have the 4th yellow via daily supply rewards.

I'm wondering if I should start saving now so when I get the free one in 4 months I can buy what at that point would be my final OML cover, or keep pulling 20 at a time and hope for the best?

Are the percentages skewed so horribly at this point it would make more sense to save the cp up?

You could try saving for those four months, which should put you over 720 cp, then make the pulls until you get yourself down to 720. If you don't have one by then, use the cp to get it.