Aether revolt mythic rate

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Houdin
Houdin Posts: 182 Tile Toppler
edited February 2017 in MtGPQ General Discussion
So, I just opened a total of 350 kaladesh cards without a single mythic and only three rares, none of them new to me. A team member of mine opened 450 cards without a single mythic. Perhaps there is a bug with the drop rate on the new roll out. I realize the question has been answered before and we aren't to expect the same drop rate on mythics as would be seen in paper packs, however this seems a bit excessive even taking that into account.
Devs
Can you please look into this and have someone post an official response to this. If you have purposely changed the rate to something like 1 in 1000 then just tell us so straight up so we will know what to expect.
Houdin
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Comments

  • THEMAGICkMAN
    THEMAGICkMAN Posts: 697 Critical Contributor
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    I do believe that in the weeks between 1.92 and 1.10 the drop rates were higher. But that seems to have changed again. That said I got a mythic and 0 rares in a fat pack :/

    Really really want the devs to speak on this topic
  • Falizar
    Falizar Posts: 70 Match Maker
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    6 big boxes i opened and i got 1 Aether Revolt Mythic - Lightning Runner.

    I did 9 other rares with 2 solemn recruit and 2 Greenbelt Rampager.
  • span_argoman
    span_argoman Posts: 751 Critical Contributor
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    One Big Box opened with 1 mythic and 4+1 rares. My coalition members have opened KLD+AR Big Boxes with 2 mythics.

    *shrug* RNG
  • ZW2007-
    ZW2007- Posts: 812 Critical Contributor
    edited February 2017
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    I had been hoarding all my packs for a while, and not just KLD, all sets. Today I decided to crack them all and tracked the results.

    Origins:
    2 Single Packs: 0 mythic, 0 rare

    BFZ:
    13 Single Packs: 0 mythic, 0 rare

    SOI:
    26 Single Packs: 1 mythic, 4 rare
    3 Fat Packs: 1 mythic, 3 rare

    KLD:
    15 Single Packs: 0 mythic, 3 rare
    7 Fat Packs: 2 mythic, 7 rare (excluding the bonus card, none were rare or better)
    1 Big Box: 2 mythic, 4 rare (including the bonus booster)

    All together, I opened 555 cards in total and received 6 mythic and 21 rare cards.

    Prior to this patch, I tracked only my Big Boxes. For those, I opened 350 cards and received 3 mythic and 13 rare cards.

    This is all unbiased data that I decided to start tracking after feeling discouraged a lot in the past.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    ZW2007- wrote:
    All together, I opened 555 cards in total and received 6 mythic and 21 rare cards.

    This is all unbiased data that I decided to start tracking after feeling **** a lot in the past.
    I've put the above 555 cards worth of data into the spreadsheet. Thanks for collecting it. For future reference - to get complete data it'd also be handy to count uncommons.
  • buscemi
    buscemi Posts: 673 Critical Contributor
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    Volrak wrote:
    I've put the above 555 cards worth of data into the spreadsheet. Thanks for collecting it. For future reference - to get complete data it'd also be handy to count uncommons.

    Are you collecting data at the moment? Anything you'd like to share with us yet? Last time I took a sample the figures were coming out at roughly 1 mythic and 2-3 rares per Big Box, but that was a while ago now, and anecdotal evidence seems to be suggesting that the rates are dropping once again.
  • morgue427
    morgue427 Posts: 783 Critical Contributor
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    hmm your killing my martyr complex here, opened 2 big boxes and got 3 mythics and 7 rare 4 dupes of the rares. and of course what i want out of the box is the stupid 3/3 double strike white for 6, figures perhaps you have to be more zen and not expect anything.
  • Nitymp
    Nitymp Posts: 320 Mover and Shaker
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    Opened 4 single packs and got 5 rares.
    Then 2 fat packs and got 2 mythics.
    Then a big box with 5 rares.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    buscemi wrote:
    Are you collecting data at the moment? Anything you'd like to share with us yet? Last time I took a sample the figures were coming out at roughly 1 mythic and 2-3 rares per Big Box, but that was a while ago now, and anecdotal evidence seems to be suggesting that the rates are dropping once again.
    Octal and other regular contributors have been collecting data for months; more contributors are always welcome.

    The data currently allows us to be 95% sure that the mythic drop rate is 1.04% +/- 0.3% (i.e. 0.74% to 1.34% of cards drop as mythics). In other words we're seeing on average one mythic per 96 cards, and can say the true rate lies somewhere between one mythic per 75 cards and one mythic per 135 cards with 95% confidence.

    For rares, 95% confidence drop rate is 4.21% +/- 0.6%, so we're seeing one drop per 24 cards on average, and can say the true rate is between one rare per 20 cards and one rare per 28 cards with 95% confidence.

    In terms of drops from a big box, the chances to get n mythics or rares are shown below, with error bars showing 95% confidence bounds on drop rates.
    mythic_drop_chances_4_feb_2017.png
    rare_drop_chances_4_feb_2017.png

    (All of these numbers assume constant drop rates across the whole dataset. Statistical tests could be applied to different portions of the data to see whether a change in the drop rate might have happened; as far as I know this hasn't been tried yet.)

    More data will let us keep narrowing those confidence windows and pinpoint the drop rates and derived stats more precisely. The tracking spreadsheet is at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0. Like I've mentioned elsewhere, we'd love to get more data, but please don't add data just because it's strange or very lucky/unlucky; instead, decide before opening a pack that you'll add what you get, then open the pack, then add it regardless of what you got. That way we can avoid adding biased data and keep the stats valid.
  • madwren
    madwren Posts: 2,227 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Fantastic work. Thanks for sharing.
  • buscemi
    buscemi Posts: 673 Critical Contributor
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    Great work on this. Any chance of maybe providing a table showing your % chance of getting a new rare/mythic in a set depending on how many you already own?
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
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    buscemi wrote:
    Great work on this. Any chance of maybe providing a table showing your % chance of getting a new rare/mythic in a set depending on how many you already own?
    Something like this?
    new_mythic_per_box.png
  • madwren
    madwren Posts: 2,227 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Immediately stolen and put in my personal PQ spreadsheet. :thumbsup:
  • Sorin81
    Sorin81 Posts: 544 Critical Contributor
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    Plan to open at least one SoI big box before it leaves the vault. I'll post my results here.
  • SeditiousCanary
    SeditiousCanary Posts: 76 Match Maker
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    Was torn between getting Koth, and maybe Sorin, or getting a SOI Big Box. Got the Big Box, and I am really glad that I did.

    I pulled 1 mythic, 8 rares, of which 3 of the rares were dupes. The pulls were:
    Bruna, the Fading Light*
    Deathcap Cultivator*
    Distended Mindbender
    Drownyard Temple
    Elder Deep-Fiend
    Ever After
    Falkenrath Gorger
    Rattlechains
    Thalia's Lieutenant*
    Tangleclaw Werewolf+

    *Duplicates
    +New uncommon

    So, now I'm plotting some new deck ideas...
  • Sorin81
    Sorin81 Posts: 544 Critical Contributor
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    Okay here's what I got.

    Origins:
    2 single packs: 0 mythic, 0 rare, 4 uncommon, 6 common

    SoI:
    1 big box: 0 mythic, 5 rare, 30 uncommon, 35 common
  • ZW2007-
    ZW2007- Posts: 812 Critical Contributor
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    Sorin81 wrote:
    Okay here's what I got.

    Origins:
    2 single packs: 0 mythic, 0 rare, 4 uncommon, 6 common

    SoI:
    1 big box: 0 mythic, 5 rare, 30 uncommon, 35 common
    For your big box, you did not get your guaranteed rare. Total number of cards for a big box should = 71. Submit a ticket to support.
  • Sorin81
    Sorin81 Posts: 544 Critical Contributor
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    I may have miscounted the common cards. There were so many I got kinda bored.
  • Mainloop25
    Mainloop25 Posts: 1,935 Chairperson of the Boards
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    ZW2007- wrote:
    Sorin81 wrote:
    Okay here's what I got.

    Origins:
    2 single packs: 0 mythic, 0 rare, 4 uncommon, 6 common

    SoI:
    1 big box: 0 mythic, 5 rare, 30 uncommon, 35 common
    For your big box, you did not get your guaranteed rare. Total number of cards for a big box should = 71. Submit a ticket to support.

    1+5+30+35=71
  • ZW2007-
    ZW2007- Posts: 812 Critical Contributor
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    Mainloop25 wrote:
    ZW2007- wrote:
    Sorin81 wrote:
    Okay here's what I got.

    Origins:
    2 single packs: 0 mythic, 0 rare, 4 uncommon, 6 common

    SoI:
    1 big box: 0 mythic, 5 rare, 30 uncommon, 35 common
    For your big box, you did not get your guaranteed rare. Total number of cards for a big box should = 71. Submit a ticket to support.

    1+5+30+35=71
    Really? check your figures again, 0+5+30+35=70

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